Vegas Whispers 143rd Preakness Analysis & Selections

Vegas Whispers 143rd Preakness Analysis & Selections

Preakness Stakes 🐎

Highlighted Wins in 2018 include scores in:
Fountain of Youth Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby, Florida Derby, 
***Longshot play of Promises Fulfilled at 18/1 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes with a 115 -1 Exacta***
***Longshot play 19/1 Quip in the Tampa Bay Derby with a 151-1 Exacta and a 455-1 Trifecta***
***Longshot play Hofburg in the Florida Derby coming in 2nd behind Audible with a 26-1 Exacta & 155-1 Trifecta ***

What: $1,500,000 G1 Preakness Stakes 143

Where: Pimlico, Maryland

Race: Race 13 Post Time: 6:48 EST/ 3:48 PST

When: Saturday May 19, 2018

 

“We Have a Justified Favorite”

Justify, who dominated in the slop in the Kentucky Derby, is clearly deserving chalk in the second leg of the Triple Crown at Pimlico. He is unbeaten in all four starts and his speed figure has improved in every race—topping out with a 110-figure in the Derby! He is a supreme talent that just broke the ‘Curse of the Apollo’ in a 20-horse field and he should have no issue handling this field of eight. Only three other horses who raced in the Derby will be back for a rematch with Justify here in Maryland—Lone Sailor, Bravazo & runner-up Good Magic. Quip, who we backed as a longshot winner in the Tampa Bay Derby, is back fresh and looking to try to hit the board after drawing the rail come Saturday.  He should be the speed on the front end from the break with Justify and if he can run back to the form we saw in Florida he could really relish the wet track and be apt for a career best effort. 
 
Now the biggest question you will have reading this—how can I find value with a possible favorite of 1/5 or even 1/9 come post time if he wins? Well the answer is simple & Vegas Whispers is here to help. As all of my readers here at FullTime Fantasy Sports know I am not a chalk player and often look to beat the favorite. However, here are some vital historical stats: 13 of the last 17 Preakness winners have had odds of 7/2 or less; 13 out of the last 18 Preakness races have had double digit odds horse run into the exacta, and 11 out of the last 18 exactas have returned $40-1 or more! So history tells us that we probably wont be looking at a repeat of the Kentucky Derby exacta of Justify & Good Magic.  The best way to find value is to play the exotics and try to get some bombs in 2nd and 3rd positions. 
 
Well the three longshots the formula lands upon are Quip, Bravazo and Ten Fold. The only problem here is—I am not so sure we get these morning line odds come Saturday. We will need to keep an eye on the tote board and I will be sure to update in the Slack chat prior to post time as I did on Derby Day when I advised that the track conditions combined with the post draw on the middle of the track favored the eventual winner & favorite Justify even more. Now if we look closely at past performances, we will see that Bravazo posted the exact same speed figure of 110–mentioned above by Justify in the Derby—in his win in Risen Star back in February. He had a terrible trip in the Derby hanging five-wide nearly the entire race and still found a way to finish 6th. I have a feeling in this short of a field with an outside post, Bravazo could be sitting on a big effort with a much cleaner trip. 
 
We are looking at 80% chance of rain on Saturday for the race & most likely either a sloppy or muddy track once again. We saw how Justify dominated on an off track and we should see much the same here. Therefore, I will play Justify on top in the exotics, and hopefully some of these longshots can run in for second & third.  I will also box all of the longshots in an exacta in case this hoof bruise on Justify is worse than they are leading us to believe—because simply, if this race stays true to form we will have another Triple Crown hopeful on our hands in two weeks come the Belmont Stakes!

My Preakness Rankings:

 
#7   Justify                  (1/2)
#8  Bravazo                 (20-1)
#1   Quip                       (12-1)
#5   Good Magic         (3-1)
#2  Lone Sailor           (15-1)
#6   Tenfold                (20-1)
#3  Sporting Chance  (30-1)
#4 Diamond King        (30-1)

Analysis/Plays:

My Top Contenders: (Morning Line Odds)

  • #7 Justify  (1/2) #5 Good Magic (3-1) 

Vegas Whispers Top Selection: 

  • #7 Justify  (1/2) 

Top Live Longshots: 

  • #8 Bravazo (20-1) #1 Quip (12-1) #6 Tenfold (20-1) 

Play$:

 
Exacta P/W:
  • 7 /1,2,3,6,8                                            ($1 wager costs $5)
 
Exacta BOX: 
  • 1-2-5-6-8                                              ($1 wager costs $20)
Trifecta P/W Play:
    • 7 / 1,2,6,8 / 1,2,3,5,6,8                       ($1 wager costs $20)
 
Superfecta P/W Play:
 
  • 7 /1,6,8/1,2,5,6,8/1,2,3,5,6,8               (.50 cent wager costs $24)