Dongers Club MLB DFS – Monday, April 2nd

Update … Baltimore has to get some boost for me with 85%+ humidity in Houston, wind blowing out heavy to left field and the roof open.

Trey Mancini is going to go yard tonight off Morton

 

 

If you thought yesterday was a doozy for pitchers, wait until you see tonights list.

WEATHER

I am giving simply the spots that could have a PPD risk here.  If there is a MAJOR weather impact then I will note that as well, however noting things like slight winds out here or slight winds out there isn’t something I’m gonna feel you need to worry about here as I’ve factored it into my analysis below.

Phillies @ Mets – Game PPD

 

TOP CHALK ARMS

I don’t think this is a spot where you have to lock in these guys.  They all have potential risks or limitations to them that could warrant getting off the chalk.

CHARLIE MORTON

Morton experienced the best year of his career last season in Houston and draws the benefit of facing other teams #4 and #5 starters and in the case of the Orioles, thats ole Chris Tillman.  So expect Morton to get plenty of run support in the game where the Astros are unveiling the Championship pennant and handing out rings. Here’s some reasons why I don’t love Morton in this spot tonight …

a) There will be a long on field delay here before the game which really makes me think we can fade Morton.  Often times these starters are creatures of habit and having to spend extra time waiting could lead to a rough first inning.

b)  The Orioles got shutdown by the Twins pitching over the weekend but remain a lineup that can pop at anytime.  I think they will jump on him early, drive the pitch count up and we ultimately see him fail to go 6 full innings.

c) With Morton we have a guy with a limited ceiling and potentially 35%+ ownership.  Strong fade in tournaments if you ask me, so long as you can stomach one of the SP2 options.

MIKE CLEVINGER

I guess if you gotta eat some chalk he is it.   I don’t love him that much though.

TANNER ROARK

You’re new to my articles aren’t you?   I won’t have him.   Especially not in the division ON the road.

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SECOND TIER (SP2)

REYNALDO LOPEZ

YES SIR!  Lets gooo!   Reynaldo Lopez won’t be touched tonight and I cannot understand why everyone is afraid of attacking this Toronto lineup.  They literally had to get two homers from Justin Smoak yesterday to steal one against the Yankees.  With Lopez I can trust that he can throw 6+ IP and will get some good run support tonight.  6 innings, quality start and a win?  That’s perfect on a night like tonight on FanDuel with their scoring and on DK he makes for a perfect pivot off some of the bad SP2 chalk out there today.

Lopez was worse away from New Comiskey (yeah, thats what I call it) last season but overall his weakness was against lefties as one would expect for a middle of the road pitcher.  Here are the lefty bats he has to worry about tonight.  Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, Curtis Granderson.   So basically he has to worry about Justin Smoak.   Fine, if I have a lineup without Lopez maybe I will throw Smoak on it.  But on DK this means you aren’t playing Goldschmidt, Freeman, Bellinger, Olson, Hosmer….  There is not a deeper position tonight.  And you want me to play Smoak?  Nah, no thanks.   Lopez locked in.  6 strong innings and the win.

ANDREW TRIGGS

He has dominated these Texas bats and has a good ballpark behind him.  They are 3 for 27 against him and their main boost is the long ball which is negated quite a bit by the stadium.  I will however have a ton of Elvis Andrus on the non Triggs lineups.   Elvis loves him some Oakland…

 

CHALK STACKS

ASTROS

Well….  This is a tough one to talk down.  They’re having a World Series ceremony before the game and then they face Chris Tillman.  Not a bad spot to be in for sure.  One of the bats I was looking at tonight was Marsnick but he is not in the lineup, so expect guys like George Springer and Josh Reddick to be really popular at the top of this order.  Carlos Correa is off to a red hot start as I expected the 2018 AL MVP to do.  That said, I never have a problem fading the Astros when they’re at home because the ballpark isn’t as solid as everyone thinks and they’ll never bat in the 9th inning.  The roof is open though so Houston scoring 5 runs tonight is not a long shot call — especially against the Orioles pitching staff.  They’re tough to 100% fade — Correa, Marwin G and Derek Fisher.

BLUE JAYS

Seriously?  Why in the world are the Blue Jays being touted this much??   Lets put it this way.  If THEY were the team facing Chris Tillman, I would roster Chris Tillman.  I already broke down that the only bat who scares me here is Justin Smoak and everyone who rosters him is basically fading the deepest position on the slate if you ask me.  I am not going to play the Jays and I encourage you not to do so either.

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ATHLETICS

They’re gonna be chalk against Bartolo Colon as would any team who hits a ton of homers.  I actually think Colon could manage to pitch well enough to not make this into a disaster fade.  Matt Olson and Khris Davis are the main chalk bats to take from here, besides that, I’ll fade.

 

MY TEAMS – MAIN LINEUP PLAYS

DIAMONDBACKS

Do you know what “nae baji ttong” means in Korean?

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It means “Shit My Pants” …

That’s what Hyun-Jin Ryu is gonna say after he faces Arizona on Monday night with the roof open and a normal start time.  The Diamondbacks are coming in healthy, confident and ready to pounce on this fat waste of a pitcher.   Keep an eye on the bottom of the D’Backs lineup for a value target with guys like Nick Ahmed and Jeff Mathis.   My main core is David Peralta, AJ Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings.

 

DODGERS

SEAAAGER GONNA DONGER ……  JOC’n the GRANDAL!     JOC’n the GRANDAL!

SEEEAGER GONNA DONGER ……. JOC’n the GRANDAL!     JOC’n the GRANDAL!

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In case you cannot figure that out, play Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and Yasmani Grandong.

WHITE SOX

So I had this entire write-up that was centered around a certain lefty outfielder for the White Sox.  He isn’t playing.  So we cannot go full steakhouse tonight with Chicago, but we can still have the beef tenderloins along with our fine bottle of wine (Abreu) and some Mashed Potatoes (Matt Davidson).

Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Wellington Beef Castillo.

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CONTRARIAN TEAM

BRAVES

Freeman-Albies-Freeman-Freddie Freeman…. FREDDIE FREEMAN!    Mix in some Nick Markakis and Preston Tucker if you want to go all out.

Something about this slate feels off…  There’s something obvious about it mis… oh RIGHT.  Freddie Freeman fucking owns the Nationals.  He’s gonna walk up to the plate tonight and feast on that fraud that is Tanner “Im only good for 4 and 2/3 innings on the road” Roark.   SICK EM FREDDIE.

Good hitting conditions here in Atlanta.  74 degrees, partly cloudy.  This game could really go off and the Braves are the contrarian side.

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POSITIONAL PLAYS

CATCHER

FIRST BASE – Deeeeeeeeeeeeeep

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELD – TIER 1

OUTFIELD – Tier 2

OUTFIELD – VALUE TIER

 

THE DONGERS CLUB

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  1. Freddie Freeman – 1B – Chairman
  2. Matt Joyce – OF
  3. Bryce Harper – OF
  4. Matt Davidson – 3B
  5. Yasmani Grandal – C
  6. Joc Pederson – OF
  7. Corey Seager – SS
  8. Chris Owings – 2B
  9. BONUS ………. Matt Olson – 1B

 

 

 

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