AFC Championship Betting: 2 Must-Target Player Props for Patriots vs Broncos
AFC Championship Betting: 2 Must-Target Player Props for Patriots vs Broncos
Written by Frank Taddeo @RespectedMoney on X
NFL Championship weekend kicks off with thrilling action as the top two seeds in the AFC clash for the third time ever in the AFC Championship Game. The Broncos boast a flawless 2-0 record against the Patriots in AFC title games, along with a dominant 4-1 all-time playoff mark versus New England.
However, Denver could find it difficult to extend their historical postseason dominance after losing starting QB Bo Nix (ankle) in the club’s victory last week over the Texans.
Our “Vegas vs Fulltime Projections”, focusing on data analytics exclusive to FullTime premium members, heads into Championship Weekend up +16.83 units on the year!
the stage is set: AFC’s top-2 seeds will face off for the Lamar Hunt Trophy pic.twitter.com/sC09jjFM3l
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 18, 2026
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
When: Sunday, January 25 at 3:00 pm ET
Moneyline: Patriots -250 | Broncos +215
Spread: Patriots -4.5 (-110) | Broncos +4.5 (-110)
Total: 42.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Circa Sports
The New England Patriots (16-3) clinched a berth in the AFC Championship Game after a stellar defensive effort propelled them to a 28-16 win against the Houston Texans.
The Patriots, riding an impressive 15-1 straight-up (SU) record since late September, have also delivered a strong 13-3 against-the-spread (ATS) performance over that stretch. Following a pair of home playoff victories against the Chargers and Texans, New England hits the road for the first time this postseason. Led by Drake Maye, the Patriots have been dominant away from home this season, posting a perfect 8-0 SU mark on the road along with a 7-1 ATS record in those games.
On the other sideline, the top-seeded Broncos (15-3) head into the AFC championship after a dramatic 33-30 overtime victory against Buffalo, where they covered as 1.5-point home favorites. Denver boasts a 14-1 straight-up record across their past 15 outings, though they’ve been just marginally rewarding for bettors with an 8-7 ATS mark over that span. Overall this season, the Broncos sit at 8-10 ATS, but they’ve thrived especially at home, posting a 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS record at Empower Field at Mile High.
Respected Money Betting Note: Home ‘dogs are a perfect 3-0 ATS this postseason
Top Player Props
TE Hunter Henry Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
While owning one of the league’s best defenses, Denver has been vulnerable against opposing tight ends, allowing 62 yards per game to the position. Henry, who finished 2nd on New England in: targets (87), receptions (60), receiving yards (768) has been a reliable target for the Patriots rookie signal-caller this season.
Henry, who has surpassed this betting line of 42.5 in 11 of his 18 games (61%), has averaged 51.1 yards per game over his last nine and will now face a Denver secondary that surrendered 9 receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown to Bills tight ends last week.
A Boutte Beauty ❄️@Patriots | @InsidetheNFL pic.twitter.com/EmdDn83DyR
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) January 19, 2026
WR Kayshon Boutte Over 19.5 Longest Reception (-122, FanDuel)
This investment emerges from my model due to two key variables: recent usage and avoiding stud CB Patrick Surtain. With Pats WR1 Stefon Diggs expected to draw Surtain, we will pivot to Kayson Boutte.
The third-year wideout, who posted a team-high 83% snap percentage last week against Houston, has emerged as a major passing option for Maye in the playoffs, hauling in a team-high: receptions (7) and receiving yards (141) yards as well as a touchdown in the club’s two postseason wins.
The former LSU standout, who has eclipsed this longest reception mark in both playoff games (42,32) will now face a Broncos defense that gave up 40 plays of 20+ receiving yards as well as the 4th-most plays of 40+ receiving yards.
With Boutte becoming the Patriots’ clear deep threat, we will also invest a half unit on: over his receiving yards line of 38.5 (-112) as well as a half unit on his ALT 50+ yards at odds of +152 – lines he has easily surpassed in the playoffs (75,66).
Check Back all week as we continue to roll out of top Vegas vs Fulltime Projection targets to help increase your bankroll!
Vegas vs FullTime YTD: 74-93 (+16.83 UNITS) 📈
