Vegas vs Fulltime: Top Props For Wild Card Sunday
NFL Playoffs Wild Card Round Player Prop Bets: Sunday Games
Written by Frank Taddeo @RespectedMoney on X
Following a double-header on Saturday, NFL fans are treated to a triple-header of NFL WildCard playoff action on Sunday.
Our “Vegas vs Fulltime Projections”, focusing on data analytics exclusive to FullTime premium members, heads into Wild Card Weekend up +7.59 units on the year!
Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers
When: Sunday, January 11 at 1:00 pm ET
Moneyline: Bills -110 | Jaguars -110
Spread: Bills PK (-110) | Jaguars PK (-1110)
Total: Over 51.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Circa Sports
The AFC South Champion Jaguars (13-4) head into the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak, which in turn helped compile an outstanding 12-4-1 ATS overall mark in the regular season.
Meanwhile, the Bills, who scored the second-most points (481) of any team in the AFC en-route to a 12-5 SU record, burned bettors with a disappointing 8-9 ATS mark.
Top Player Prop
WR Parker Washington Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Washington has been sensational over the last three weeks, drawing a whooping 9+ targets from Trevor Lawrence in each game. The third-year wideout has turned those 29 targets into 19 receptions for 347 receiving yards and two touchdowns – helping us cash last week in our ATD wagers at odds of +195! Earning the trust of Lawrence, coupled with earning more snaps out wide in 2-WR sets over Brian Thomas Jr., resulting in an impressive average of 115.7 yards per game over his last three games.
Washington has surpassed his base of 50.5 in 7 of his last 10 games (70%), which also results in us in laddering his ALT receiving yards markets of 60+ (+128) and 70+ (+193) for a half unit each.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
When: Sunday, January 11 at 4:30 pm ET
Moneyline: 49ers +205 | Eagles -240
Spread: 49ers +5.5 (-110) | Eagles -5.5 (-110)
Total: Over 44.5
Odds courtesy of Circa Sports
The defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles host Brock Purdy and the 49ers in a battle of NFC contenders. The Eagles enter the tilt owning a 11-6 SU and 10-7 ATS record, while San Francisco comes in with a 12-5 SU and 11-5 ATS mark.
One highlighted trend of note for this game: Under Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia is 19-5 SU and 17-6-1 ATS when installed as a home favorite of a touchdown or less.
This game, which opened with Philadelphia as 3.5-point home favorites, has drawn what we call “reverse line movement”. This move by oddsmakers is hidden by the casual bettor. To explain, as of Friday, the public is strongly backing the 49ers as a road ‘dog (70% on the spread, 85% money line) but the line is moving in the “reverse” direction (from -3.5 to -5.5) due to sharp money backing Philadelphia.
Top Player Props
WR A.J. Brown Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
Brown finished the regular season eclipsing this line of 65.5 receiving yards in five of his last six games and in this showdown with San Francisco he should find plenty of volume. The 49ers, who have recorded a league-low 20 sacks this season, will find it hard to apply pressure to Jalen Hurts, allowing him plenty of time to find his top wideout down the field. San Francisco, who is surrendering 149 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts, have allowed 12 WRs to eclipse his line this season.
QB Jalen Hurts Under 32.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
For a second investment here, we will make a correlated play to our highlighted note about the lack of pass rush for the 49ers (last in NFL in sacks). Hurts, who is averaging 26.3 rushing yards per game this season, has gone under this line of 32.5 rushing yards in seven of his last 10 games (70%). Facing a 49ers defense that ranks 30th in pressure rate (16.7%), my model projects Hurts to continue his trend of solid OL protection up front thus remaining comfortably under this number.
LA Chargers vs. New England
When: Sunday, January 11 at 8:15 pm ET
Moneyline: Chargers +155 | Patriots -180
Spread: Chargers +3.5 (-115) | Patriots -3.5 (-105)
Total: Over 45.5
Odds courtesy of Circa Sports
Top Player Props
WR Quentin Johnston Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Johnston closed out the final two games of the regular season in solid form with 9 receptions for 202 yards and a touchdown. Simply can not pass up investing in a line this low when he will be facing a Patriots secondary that is allowing 118.5 yards per game to opposing WRs. A deeper dive reveals that 22 WRs have eclipsed this demand against New England this season – a number that Johnston cleared on just once catch in five games this season.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson Over 53.5 Rush+ Rec Yards (BetMGM)
Stevenson averaged 98 total yards per game over the final five games of the regular season – highlighted by crushing this line in every one of those five contests (80, 77, 78,102, 153). In fact, since we find such a large disparity, it leads to a half-unit value play in his ALT rush + rec market of 70+ at odds of +167 – also a number he has cleared in his last five as well as being surpassed by 14 opposing RBs against the Chargers this season.
Vegas vs FullTime YTD: 61-87 (+7.59 UNITS) 📈
