Week 16 Start/Sit

Written by Adam Krautwurst

Jacoby Brissett passed the ultimate stress test last week by shredding Houston’s elite defense for over 20 fantasy points, becoming the first quarterback all season to truly solve them. If that matchup didn’t slow him down, it’s fair to say he’s largely matchup-proof. Now he draws Atlanta, a defense that has been torched through the air since Week 10, allowing top-five passing yardage and a high touchdown rate. Brissett is a confident start again this week and remains firmly in play for championship week.

Justin Herbert has been difficult to trust behind a battered offensive line and while dealing with a broken left hand, and his fantasy production has dipped as a result. Still, the matchup against Dallas sets up as a get-right spot. The Cowboys have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any team in the league, with nearly every opposing passer clearing strong QB1 numbers. It’s not without risk, but Herbert remains startable as a top option in Week 16.

Bucky Irving is worth sticking with despite last week’s disappointment. Carolina continues to struggle badly against the run, ranking near the bottom of the league in efficiency, explosive plays, and rushing touchdowns allowed. The Panthers have been even worse down the stretch, and Irving has historically thrived in this matchup. He remains locked into lineups as a strong RB play.

Aaron Jones hasn’t delivered much fantasy value recently and hasn’t scored since Week 10, but the matchup against the Giants gives him a clear path to a rebound. New York has been one of the most generous defenses to running backs, consistently allowing usable fantasy lines. Even with Jordan Mason still involved, Jones profiles as a solid RB2 this week.

DK Metcalf is quietly heating up at the right time, posting strong fantasy totals in three of his last four games. Detroit’s secondary has been a gold mine for opposing wideouts all season, especially on downfield throws, and the matchup lines up perfectly for Metcalf’s skill set. With game script likely forcing more passing volume, Metcalf has real upside in the semifinals.

Jauan Jennings continues to be one of the league’s most reliable touchdown scorers, finding the end zone in five of his last six games. With injuries thinning the 49ers’ receiver group, his target share should remain steady or even rise. Indianapolis has struggled to contain receivers recently, making Jennings a viable WR2 in most formats.

Darren Waller remains a touchdown-dependent option, but the matchup with Cincinnati keeps him firmly in streaming consideration. The Bengals have been historically bad against tight ends, allowing more production than any defense at the position. Even with a quarterback change, Waller’s red-zone role gives him weekly scoring upside.

Colston Loveland continues to emerge and could see an expanded role again if Chicago’s receiving corps remains banged up. He’s already proven productive against Green Bay and has delivered consistent fantasy value in recent weeks. If key receivers sit, Loveland becomes a borderline top-10 tight end; otherwise, he’s still a usable low-end starter.

Trevor Lawrence is coming off a massive performance, but this is a classic spot to avoid chasing points. His lowest outputs since the bye have come against strong defenses, and Denver fits that mold. The Broncos limit touchdowns and fantasy scoring at the quarterback position, making this a week to fade Lawrence despite recent success.

Jaxson Dart has been reliable most of the season, but the matchup against Minnesota is about as unforgiving as it gets. The Vikings have completely shut down opposing quarterbacks, holding even elite passers in check and allowing almost no passing touchdowns. Dart’s efficiency and rushing upside likely won’t be enough to overcome this defense.

Ashton Jeanty’s role has steadily eroded as Las Vegas continues to struggle, and his production has cratered as a result. Even his receiving work has dried up, and now he draws a Houston defense that excels at limiting rushing efficiency and big plays. With little confidence the Raiders can generate offense, Jeanty is benchable if you have alternatives.

Jaylen Warren has been surviving on touchdowns rather than volume, and that’s a dangerous formula against Detroit. The Lions rarely allow running backs to score, and Warren hasn’t generated meaningful yardage in weeks. Without a trip to the end zone, his floor is uncomfortably low.

Michael Pittman and the rest of the Colts’ receiving corps remain difficult to trust. The offense lacks downfield aggression, spreads targets thinly, and offers limited upside. Even in a slightly better matchup, the uncertainty makes Colts wideouts too risky in a playoff matchup.

Brian Thomas delivered a strong outing last week, but the matchup in Denver is a steep downgrade. The Broncos rarely allow receiver touchdowns and he could spend much of the game matched up with Patrick Surtain II. He’s best left for deeper leagues this week.

Hunter Henry faces another brutal matchup after a quiet outing against Buffalo. Baltimore has been nearly as stingy against tight ends, allowing minimal production and almost no touchdowns. He’s only worth consideration in leagues where options are scarce.

Tyler Warren’s early-season promise has faded, with his role and production both trending down. Even in favorable game scripts, he hasn’t been able to convert opportunities into meaningful fantasy points. With his floor now dangerously low, he’s no longer an automatic start and should be evaluated carefully before trusting him in a must-win week.