Week 16 QB Report
Codes:
Favorable Matchup
Neutral
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Russell Wilson (DK – $7,000/FD – $9,000): Wilson was run over by the Rams’ pass rush (7 sacks) last week while the Seahawks’ defense had huge problem stopping the run. Russell finished with his lowest output (14.00 Fantasy points) since Week 1 (10.90). He remains the top scoring QB in 2017 with nine games with over 25 Fantasy points. The Cowboys will rush the QB (32 sacks) plus their offense will try to control the clock with a strong run game helped by Ezekiel Elliott being back in the starting lineup. Dallas ranks 23rd in QB defense with 26 passing TDs allowed. Only two teams have over 300 yards passing against the Cowboys (ARI – 325/2 and LAC – 434/3). I expect a bounce back game by Seattle’s whole team leading to Russell being the top QB choice in Week 16 in the daily games.
Tom Brady (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,600): Brady has an Int in four straight games (five total), which is one game away from tying his career in 2012 (five games with nine Ints). Tom has fewer than 300 yards receiving in his last four games with six TDs over this span. On the year, he has six games over 300 yards passing and five games with three TDs or more. New England did just complete a tough road stretch of their schedule where they played five of six games on the road. In Week 13, Brady threw for 258 yards and no TDs vs. The Bills. Buffalo is fifth in the NFL defending QBs (239 yards per game with 11 passing TDs). The Bills allow only 6.7 yards per pass attempts with one disaster game (TB – 384/3). I expect Brady to play much better at home, but Buffalo’s risk vs. RBs in TDs (17) will hurt Tom’s explosiveness. Tough to bet against him coming up with a big game.
Cam Newton (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,300): Newton pushed his way to 5th in QB scoring after posting the top QB score in Week 15 (33.90 Fantasy points). This came after three flat weeks (19.20, 22.25, and 16.85 Fantasy points). Cam has two other impact games (37.20 and 38.20 Fantasy points). On the year, he has two games with over 300 yards passing and four games with three TDs on more. His improved success was due to Greg Olsen (9/116/1) returning to his previous form and success from Christian McCaffrey in the passing game (6/73/1). In his matchup on the road against Tampa earlier in the year, Newton passed for 154 yards and a TD with 44 yards on the ground. The Bucs allow the third most Fantasy points to QBs with seven teams passing for 300+ yards and 21 TDs. Tampa allows 7.9 yards per pass attempts with two teams tossing three TDs in a game. The Bucs showed risk vs. the run in three of their last four games (28/148/2, 29/199/2 and 35/201/1), which may lead to Carolina dominating in the run game in this matchup. Sexy choice based on his play last week and Tampa allowing almost 30 points per game on the road. Possible trap even with a premium matchup.
Alex Smith (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,800): Smith has shown a spark in his throws over the last three games as far as yards per pass attempt (8.9). Alex has over 300 yards passing in four games in 2017 with each game earning three TDs or more. He needs five TDs to reach 30 for the first time in his career and 262 passing yards to reach 4,000 yards for the first time in his career as well. Miami held QBs to fewer than 235 yards passing in their last four games with six TDs (four of these TDs coming in Week 12 vs. the Patriots). On the year, the Dolphins allow 7.3 yards per pass attempts with QBs tossing 24 TDs. Their biggest failure vs. QBs came against Carolina (347 combined yards with four TDs). With Kareem Hunt finding his second wind, the Chiefs’ offense may surprise in this matchup offensively.
Drew Brees (DK – $6,500/FD – $8,400): Another week in the NFL, another week with Brees falling short of delivering an impact score. Drew threw for 281 yards and two TDs in Week 15 while just missing on a TD to Mike Thomas at the goal line and another TD called back after Thomas failed to get his second foot down. Brees has two TDs or fewer in 11 straight games despite gaining 8.1 yards per pass attempt and a league high completion rate (71.8). In Week 14, he threw for 271 yards and two TDs vs. the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 22nd vs. the QB position with one disaster game (SEA – 340 combined yards with three TDs). QBs gain 6.7 yards per pass attempt against the Falcons with 20 passing TDs. Over the last 12 games, Atlanta allowed only three rushing TDs to RBs so maybe Brees may finally shine vs. the pass in Week 16.
Blake Bortles (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,600): Blake is one notch below the top 12 spots in QB scoring after playing at a high level over his last three games (309/2, 268/2, and 326/3) with a plus completion rate (71.4) over this stretch while gaining 9.9 yards per pass attempt. His last three games have been at home. Over his first 11 games, Bortles had one passing TD or fewer in ten games. The 49ers allow the 5th most Fantasy points to QBs with four teams scoring over 25 Fantasy points (26.60, 32.10, 33.70, and 26.90). San Fran allows 7.4 yards per pass attempts with 25 TDs. Playing well with a decent matchup, but his salary is much higher with a losing resume on the road in 2017. On the positive, his WRs have developing upside.
Philip Rivers (DK – $6,400/FD – $8,100): Rivers had his second bad game of the year vs. the Chiefs in Week 15. Over those two games, Phillip threw for 464 combined yards and a TD and six Ints. Over his other 12 games, he only had four Ints with 23 TDs. On the year, Rivers has five games with more than 300 yards passing and three games with three TDs. The Jets are 29th defending QBs with three disaster games (CLE – 240 combined yards and two TDs, MIA – 326/4, KC – 366/4). QBs have 27 passing TDs while gaining 7.2 yards per pass attempt against New York. His top WR (Keenan Allen) is banged up and Philip lost his starting TE for the season last week. The Chargers need a big win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I’d call him a weak maybe.
Matt Ryan (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,700): Ryan played great in 2016 leading to the second highest ranking at QB. After 14 games, he’s 16th in QB scoring with no games with more than two TDs. Matt has fewer than 225 yards passing in five of his last six games while posting only three TDs over his last four starts. In Week 14 at home, he threw for 221 yards and a TD against the Saints. New Orleans sits 13th defending QBs with three teams scoring over 25 Fantasy points (29.30, 39.20, and 29.2) with the first two of these games coming in Week 1 and Week 2. QBs have 21 TDs vs. the Saints while gaining 6.9 yards per pass attempt. More of a Hail Mary at this point of the year even with one of the top WRs in the game.
Matt Stafford (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,900): Stafford has two TDs or fewer in each of his last five games. His completion rate has been strong over his last three starts (82.8, 81.8, and 75.8), but he tossed three balls to the other team. On the year, Matt has four games with over 300 yards passing and three games with three TDs or more. The Bengals are 11th defending QBs with only one team scoring over 25 Fantasy points (GB – 313/3). They allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt with 17 passing TDs. Solid floor of 20 Fantasy points with some underlying signs that Cinci is starting to quit at a team (67 points allowed over the last two games).
Jared Goff (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,700): Goff wasn’t needed to beat the Seahawks last week. It was his fourth short game (12.05, 18.20, 17.15, and 13.00) in five starts, but he does have two TDs in each of his last four games. Over his last seven games, Jared has 13 TDs with three games with over 300 yards passing (311. 355, and 354). The Rams are tied with the Eagles for the most points scored (438) in the NFL. The Titans are 20th in the league against QBs with three bad games (SEA – 373/4, HOU – 283/4, and PIT – 299/4). QBs have 23 TDs against the Titans while gaining 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Goff plays in a high scoring offense with plenty of weapons to shine on the road. Dark horse in Week 15 due to Tennessee having a good run defense (3.5 yards per rush).
Dak Prescott (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,600): In the six games without Ezekiel Elliott, Dak passed for under 200 yards in five games with five TDs and seven Ints. His only game of value over this span came against the Giants (332/2). Prescott has six games with three TDs or more. Seattle is 9th in the NFL against QBs with only one team scoring over 25 Fantasy points (HOU – 402/4). Over the last two games, the Seahawks allowed 73 points without Richard Sherman in the starting lineup. Seattle allowed 18 passing TDs and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Dak will be a player of interest this week while Elliott may steal his playability.
Jameis Winston (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,100): Winston has seven TDs and 854 yards passing over his last three games with strength in his completion rate (70.5). Over his first six full games, Jameis passed for over 300 yards four times with two games with three TDs. He lost DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard last week, which will lower his explosiveness. In Week 8, he threw for 210 yards with no TDs and two Ints against Carolina. The Panthers struggled in three of their last four games defending QBs (NYJ – 307/3, MIN – 280/2, and GB – 290/3) pushing them to 12th in QB defense. Overall, QBs have 23 TDs against the Panthers while gaining 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Fairly priced with an impact WR who underperformed his expected value in 2017.
Tyrod Taylor (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,500): Taylor finished with a decent day in Week 15 (266 combined yards with two TDs) after missing the previous game with a knee issue. Tyrod has two passing TDs or fewer in every game in 2017 with his only game of value coming in Week 9 (320 combined yards with three combined TDs). The Patriots knocked him out of the game in Week 13 (97 combined yards). New England is 26th against QBs with most of their failure coming over the first six weeks of the year (34.70, 25.80, 25.15, 37.20, and 25.80 Fantasy points). After six straight games with QBs scoring fewer than 20 Fantasy points vs. the Patriots, they allowed 25.55 and 22.05 Fantasy points over the last two games. Real tough to trust with his poor group of receivers.
Kirk Cousins (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,300): Cousins just doesn’t have the same weapons in Week 16 as he was expected to have at the start of the year. The loss of Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson removed the scoring ability of this offense especially in the red zone. Kirk has fewer than 200 yards passing in his last two games. His last game with over 300 yards passing came in Week 11. On the year, he has five games with three TDs and five games with over 300 yards passing. The Broncos are 10th in the NFL against QBs with nine teams scoring fewer than 20 Fantasy points. Denver did struggle versus the pass in Week 9 (PHI – 222/4) and Week 10 (NE – 303/3). On the year, they allow 6.7 yards per pass attempt with 26 passing TDs. If Cousins is going to be in play, he’ll need big production from his RBs and TEs in the passing game. Fade
Marcus Mariota (DK – $5,300/FD – $7.500): Mariota is on a losing path in the daily games with Drew Brees, but he hasn’t played well in 2017. Marcus has two TDs or fewer in every game this year with only two games with over 300 yards passing. The Rams are the third best team in the NFL defending QBs with two teams scoring over 25 Fantasy points (SF – 332/2 and PHI – 333/4). LA allows 6.8 yards per pass attempt with 19 TDs. Mariota has a sliding salary with a poor rushing attack and underwhelming receiving core. Only a flier, but he did show a pulse running a hurry up offense last week.
Jimmy Garoppolo (DK – $5,300/FD – $7,000): The 49ers are loving their new QB. Over the last three games, Jimmy led San Fran to three wins while passing for 1,008 yards with only two TDs. He’s made the players around him better, but he still needs talent to be a winning play in the daily games. The Jaguars remain the top team in the league defending QBs with 12 QBs scoring fewer than 20 Fantasy points. They only team to have playable success was Russell Wilson in Week 14 (321 combined yards and three TDs). Nice ride, but this isn’t the right king of matchup to play in the daily games.
Eli Manning (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,800): I don’t know what it is, but Eli owned the Eagles in 2017 with or without his top talent at WR. Over two games, he passed for 800 yards with six TDs. Three of his five completions for over 40 yards came vs. Philly. In his other 12 games, Manning has two TDs or fewer in every games while passing below 240 yards in nine games. The Cardinals are 18th vs. QBs with four of their last five opponents scoring fewer than 20 Fantasy points. Three teams scored over 25 Fantasy points (DET – 292/4, PHI – 304/4, and JAC – 222 combined yards with two rushing TDs). On the year, QBs have 22 TDs against Arizona while gaining 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Correction week for Eli with a lot of downside expected.
DeShone Kizer (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,600): Kizer remains a gold mine for Fantasy defenses, He’s throw 19 Ints in 13 games with only nine TDs. Over his last seven full games, DeShone has fewer than 235 passing in six games with six combined passing TDs. He has two games with three TDs with no games with over 270 yards passing. The Bears are 8th against the QB position with ten teams scoring fewer than 20 Fantasy points. Only one team scored more than 25 Fantasy points (PHI – 248/3) vs. Chicago. Poor play on the road even with improved talent at WR. His ability to run does help his floor.
Andy Dalton (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,900): Dalton is on the verge of playing his way out of town in Cinci. He has fewer than 200 yards passing in five of his last nine games. Over his cold streak, Andy averages only 182 passing yards per game. His only game of value came in Week 4 (286/4) vs. the Browns. The Lions are about league average defending QBs with eight teams scoring fewer than 20 Fantasy points. Three teams have over 25 Fantasy points against the Lions (CAR – 355/3, CLE – 297 combined yards with two TDs, and MIN – 303 combined yards with three TDs). Detroit allows 7.4 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 19 TDs. Dalton has a special WR, but he remains a poor option in the daily games.
Jay Cutler (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,700): Over the last four games, Cutler threw eight Ints with six TDs. Jay has two games with three TDs and one game with over 300 yards passing. His best success has come at home. The Chiefs are 24th against QBs with five teams scoring over 25 Fantasy points (PHI – 333/2, HOU – 261/5, OAK – 417/3, DAL – 276 combined yards with three TDs, and NYJ – 350 combined yards with three TDs). Over the last five games, Kansas City only allowed four passing TDs. On the year, they’ve allowed 20 passing TDs and 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Solid weapons with a defense that has risk defending a defending a deep receiving core. May surprise.