Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 17

It is Christmas morning, and the NFL has several gifts this season for football fans. Among them is the final Thursday Night game between the Seahawks and Bears. Fulltime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 17 takes an abbreviated look at the game from a fantasy football and betting perspective.

The Seahawks had an opportunity to take control of the NFC West last week but lost a heartbreaker at home to the Minnesota Vikings. Now, Seattle has a tough task traveling east on short rest to frigid Chicago to take on the Bears. However, Chicago has lost nine straight games, which bodes well for the Seahawks’ odds of catching up with the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Bears are wrapping up a lost season that will result in a new regime next year. However, the players assuredly want to end things positively and get No. 1 pick Caleb Williams his fifth home win.

To do that, Chicago will have to pull the upset. Seattle is favored by 3.5 points and the total is a modest 44 points.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Seattle Seahawks	14	4	30	13	15
Chicago Bears	31	27	25	31	26

Chicago has mustered a miserable offense for most of the season. The Bears have only scored more than two touchdowns once during their nine-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Chicago ranks 23rd against the pass and 26th versus the run. Additionally, only the Jaguars allow more yards per play than the Bears.

The Bears’ struggles have been on both sides of the ball, and their -59 points differential is the second-worst in the NFC.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks face a must-win situation. They are currently out of the NFC playoff picture and cannot afford to lose another game, particularly to a bottom-dwelling opponent like the Bears.

The Seahawks are the second-most pass-heavy offense in football. And that strength matches up well against a Chicago defense that has started to slip. Chicago has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. Additionally, the Bears’ inability to consistently sustain drives on offense should give Geno Smith and company ample opportunities to score points.

Seattle Offense

Geno Smith is second in the NFC with 3,955 passing yards. However, touchdowns have been harder to come by. Smith has only tossed 17 TDs while rising to 15 interceptions. Meanwhile, Chicago allows the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. That makes Smith a middling QB2.

Kenneth Walker won’t play, so fantasy managers can insert Zach Charbonnet into season-long and daily lineups. In games without Walker, Charbonnet has scored 17.9, 25.7. 38.3, and 13,6 PPR points. He’s a borderline RB1 against a Chicago defense that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to running backs.

Chicago surrenders the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts, so slight downgrade to Seattle’s pass-catchers. That said, fantasy managers continue to start Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose sheer volume and productivity make him an every-week must-start. JSN has seven consecutive weeks with top-30 production and has 12 targets in his last two.

DK Metcalf hasn’t been as prolific. Smith’s struggles to produce touchdowns are most evident with Metcalf, who has found the endzone a career-worst four times this season. He also hasn’t topped 100 yards since Week 4. Metcalf is still a solid option but is more of a WR3/flex option now.

Aging Tyler Lockett is off the fantasy radar. He hasn’t topped double-digit fantasy points since Week 11 and enters the game as fantasy’s WR66.

At tight end, the Seahawks will utilize a committee of Noah Fant and A.J. Barner. Fant will play more snaps and can be a modest TE2. Barner has more TD upside but his floor is too low to consider inserting into championship lineups. It’s a neutral matchup for Williams, so he’ll be a middle-of-the-pack fantasy option.

Chicago Offense

Caleb Williams gets a lot of grief as he has been overlooked because of No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels. However, from a fantasy perspective, Williams is fine. He enters this game as the QB14, one spot below Smith. Williams has a 19-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio and has been better since Thomas Brown took over as Chicago’s play-caller.

RB D’Andre Swift gets plenty of playing time but hasn’t been particularly productive with it. Swift has double-digit carries in all but one game this season. However, he has not topped 10 fantasy points since Week 11. Seattle is an average run defense but Swift is just an average fantasy back with little upside.

The matchup for the pass-catchers is better as Seattle allows the 11th-most fantasy points to wideouts.

D.J. Moore has (quietly) posted WR15 overall numbers. Moore soaked up 10 targets last week but tends to be a sporadic fantasy producer. He has three games with more than 23 fantasy points and four outings with fewer than seven.

Keenan Allen has been better of late. Over the last five weeks, Allen has been fantasy’s WR6, snagging 32 passes for 412 balls and five touchdowns. Allen has topped 20 fantasy points in four of his last five games and has 13 targets in back-to-back showings. Moore has the upside, but Allen is the safer option.

Rome Odunze’s volume has been solid but his ceiling is capped due to being the third option in a deep receiving corps.

True to form, TE Cole Kmet enters this game as the TE15. He’s been an erratic producer with a pair of 20-plus outings and five games with fewer than four fantasy points. Kmet has been held under six fantasy points in three of his last four, so he’s not a recommended start against a Seattle defense surrendering 12.0 points per week to enemy tight ends.

Prediction & Best Bet

Weather shouldn’t be a factor, with the forecast being 44 degrees with a small chance of rain.

Hard to like anything about the Bears from a betting perspective. Chicago is riding a nine-game losing streak and is 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five. The Bears have also struggled to score. The UNDER has hit in six of their last nine games.

However, the Bears have been better at home. Chicago is 5-2-1 ATS at Soldier Field and all four of their straight-up wins have come in front of the home crowd.

Meanwhile, Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS on the road and has outright won seven of their last eight away games.

Call it a hunch, but I think the Bears can keep it close, but it’s a ‘stay away’ game for me.

Best Bet: Bears +4 ✅

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