Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 16

Last week’s NFC West showdown was a rain-soaked dud with zero touchdowns. On the surface, this week’s AFC West game looks like another low-scoring snoozer. However, with major playoff implications at stake, FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 16 finds some fantasy appeal for both squads.

One year ago, the Chargers were 5-9 and had just lost their starting quarterback to a season-ending finger injury and fired Brandon Staley. A year later, Jim Harbaugh has turned the franchise’s fortunes around. LA is in an excellent position to secure an AFC Wild Card spot.

Coincidentally, the Denver Broncos are directly competing with the Chargers for that postseason berth. Sean Payton has also done a masterful job quickly turning the Broncos back into contenders.

While neither team sets the world on fire offensively, this game projects to be a hard-fought, competitive contest. Back in October, the Chargers won 23-16 in Denver and the Broncos look to even the score in LA.

The home team is favored by three and the total sits at 42 points.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Denver Broncos	22	23	20	24	11
Los Angeles Chargers	26	25	23	19	20

Only the Chargers have allowed fewer points than Denver. Additionally, both teams rank outside of the top 20 in overall offense. Points will be at a premium on Thursday.

Jim Harbaugh has resurrected the Los Angeles defense. However, the offense is still a work in progress. The Chargers have topped 30 points once and been held under 20 six times. That includes their last three games. Two of those resulted in losses, culminated by last week’s 40-17 dismantling by the Buccaneers.

Injuries have played a big part in the Chargers’ offensive struggles. And facing a Denver defense that ranks fifth against the run while allowing the second-fewest yards per play won’t be easy.

Denver’s offense has been marginally better. The backfield has been a mess for fantasy managers but QB Bo Nix has exceeded expectations after a slow start. Denver has won four straight to improve to 9-5. The Broncos are a game up on the Chargers for second place in the tough AFC West.

When the Chargers defeated the Broncos in Week 6, Los Angeles dominated the time of possession 37:23 to 22:37. But without J.K. Dobbins and a banged-up Justin Herbert, the rematch favors the visitors.

Denver Offense

Bo Nix finished as QB9 in Week 6 versus this defense, mainly because he ran for 61 yards. In his last seven games, Nix is averaging just 10.2 yards on the ground. He has become more of a pocket passer and faces a solid defense that just got carved up on Sunday.

Nix’s passing prop is 222.5, with a (-178) lean on the UNDER 1.5 touchdowns. However, his rushing prop of 20.5 yards seems low. Nix has only surpassed that mark once in the last five games.

Denver’s backfield remains a fade. If you must, Javonte Williams has led the group in snaps every week. However, he’s scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in six out of his last seven. Williams is a TD-or-BUST option facing a defense that has only allowed three rushing scores to running backs in 2024.

Jaleel McLaughlin has some pass-catching appeal. However, the rookie was a limited practice participant on Tuesday with a quad injury. He has also scored single-digit fantasy points in six straight. McLaughlin doesn’t get enough touches to be an option but if he misses this game, Javonte Williams enters RB3 territory. UPDATE: McLaughlin is OUT, boosting Williams into RB3 territory.

Audric Estime hasn’t topped 20 yards since Week 10 and has four targets all season. He’s well off the fantasy radar.

The Broncos have a consistent group of four wideouts led by Courtland Sutton. Sutton ranks ninth with 113 targets and enters this game as the overall WR15 in PPR scoring. Los Angeles is below-average defending wide receivers and Sutton caught 4-of-6 targets for 53 yards and a TD back in Week 6.

Denver’s other wideouts are less certain but have some DFS potential. Devaughn Vele runs the second-most routes but only has one score. Troy Franklin is the WR3 but hasn’t topped 10 fantasy points since Week 7. Marvin Mims is the best bet to outplay his salary this week. Mims’ role as a runner and receiver has grown since Week 10.

At tight end, the Broncos utilize a fantasy-unfriendly committee. Nate Adkins, Lucas Krull, and Adam Trautman regularly play between 20 and 30 snaps and occasionally draw targets. Trautman has scored the most fantasy points but is still outside the top 40 scorers.

Los Angeles Offense

Justin Herbert threw for 221 yards and one score against the Broncos in Week 6. That ranked 21st for the week. After that, Herbert posted top-12 weekly numbers in five consecutive weeks before finishing outside of QB1 range in Weeks 13-15.

Denver ranks eighth against fantasy quarterbacks. Additionally, Herbert is dealing with a troublesome ankle that has curtailed his rushing upside. View Herbert as a modest QB2.

LA’s rushing attack has fallen off without J.K. Dobbins. Gus Edwards is the nominal starter, but Edwards has not hit double-digit fantasy points in any game this season. He’s averaged less than four yards per carry in three of his last four and has only caught two balls all year. Facing a Denver defense that has only allowed five rushing TDs to running backs makes Edwards a TD-or-BUST option highly unlikely to pay off. Edwards is barely an RB3.

WR Ladd McConkey runs 70% of his routes from the slot, so he’ll mostly avoid CB Patrick Surtain II (8% slot rate). This is a big boost for McConkey, who has topped 11 fantasy points in three of four.

Quentin Johnston has six games with 10-plus fantasy points and five outings with fewer than four. Johnston is highly volatile, with eight touchdowns on only 34 grabs. He scored only 2.2 points against Denver in the first matchup. Therefore, Johnston should be viewed as a risky WR4.

Josh Palmer is the Chargers’ WR3. However, like Johnston, has been an unreliable week-to-week option.

With Will Dissly out, Stone Smartt looks promising. Smartt has topped 50 yards in consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have allowed an opposing tight end to top 40 yards and/or score a touchdown in consecutive weeks. View Smartt as a solid TE2 who can be added from most league’s waiver wires.

Prediction & Best Bet

The Chargers have not enjoyed a home-field advantage since moving into SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles has a 4-8 record straight up in their last 12 home games. Additionally, they’ve struggled against the Broncos, compiling a 7-15 mark against Denver.

And points have also been hard to come by. 10 of the last 11 in this series in LA has gone UNDER. And the under has hit in three straight overall in this rivalry.

Conversely, Denver has covered five straight overall and is 6-1 ATS on the road this season.

There are lots of leans on the UNDER in this game, but we’ll roll with the dogs.

Best Bet: BRONCOS +3

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