Week 10 NFL Player Props
After a 3-3 week resulting in -.25 Units, we’re up 2.5 Units on the season. I know we haven’t been hitting it big like our red-hot start to the season, but it’s time to get on another win streak. We’re still in the green on the year, so let’s get down to business and identify the juiciest Week 10 NFL Player Props to target.
Always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 10 NFL prop bets!
Derek Carr OVER 201.5 Passing Yards (-110)
On paper, things aren’t exactly looking rosy for Derek Carr. He’s lost his most explosive playmaker, Rashid Shaheed, and he’ll likely be without Chris Olave this week due to a concussion. To make matters worse, starting slot receiver Bub Means has landed on IR. Woof!
But don’t write off the Saints’ offense just yet! Even though they’re down three key wideouts, weapons are still in play. The tight end group is sneaky good, with three pass-catchers who bring different skill sets to the table. Take Juwan Johnson, for instance—he’s practically a wide receiver in a tight end’s body and has racked up 40+ receiving yards in three of his last four games.
Then there’s Alvin Kamara, who’s still a receiving dynamo out of the backfield, putting up 55 and 60 receiving yards over the last two weeks. Plus, the Saints have had more time to integrate new faces like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Cedrick Wilson, so Carr isn’t completely out of options.
And very importantly, Carr is in a very favorable matchup. Atlanta struggles to pressure the quarterback (dead last in sacks per game) and allows a league-worst 70.85% completion rate. Carr has played the Falcons three times since joining New Orleans, averaging a solid 269 yards per game, including a 239-yard outing in Week 4.
So, while the Saints’ recent injuries and their loss to Carolina might have some people worried, Carr’s passing line this week seems like an overreaction. It’s a lower number than it should be, and Carr has plenty of tools left to work with against a vulnerable Falcons defense.
Bo Nix OVER 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-200)
Taking on an undefeated team like the Kansas City Chiefs is no easy task. The Broncos managed to beat them just over a year ago, and they’re hoping to make it two in a row for the first time in over nine years. Talk about aiming high!
With Denver listed as 7.5-point underdogs, it’s a tall order for Bo Nix to lead the charge against the defending Super Bowl Champions. Both squads boast impressive defenses, but KC’s rushing defense has been especially stingy, giving up only 83.9 rushing yards per game and allowing just five touchdowns all season.
Considering KC’s ability to stifle running games—and the fact that the Broncos have sometimes struggled to get their own ground game going—Denver might be forced to air it out. That could mean a lot of passing for Nix, especially if Kansas City pulls ahead early. Denver has shown they can score, even before that heavy loss to the Ravens, and Nix only needs one big throw to make this pick pay off.
Feeling a little adventurous? For more profitable (and riskier) odds, Nix passing for over 210.5 yards is a -110 bet at DraftKings, which could nearly double your stake.
De’Von Achane OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
With Tua Tagovailoa back in action after a long break, things are heating up for Miami’s skill players! One player to watch is De’Von Achane, who’s been a rushing machine. In his last two games with Tua at the helm, Achane has been tearing up defenses, averaging a whopping 80 rushing yards per game at a sizzling 7.3 yards per carry. Last week, even with veteran Raheem Mostert in the mix, Achane dominated 70% of the offensive snaps against Buffalo.
Now, as the Dolphins gear up for a Monday Night Football showdown with the Rams, it looks like the ground game will be crucial. The Rams’ defense has struggled to contain the run this season, facing the third-highest rush-play rate (49.5%) and giving up an average of 135.1 rushing yards per game. With both teams playing at a fast pace and a high total of 51 points expected, Achane could have plenty of chances to break free for a big, highlight-reel run.
Expect a ton of volume and a big game from the young playmaker.
Saquon Barkley Longest Rush OVER 16.5 Yards (-110)
Who wouldn’t want to bet on Saquon Barkley against this Dallas Cowboys “defense”? Sure, his yardage total of 91.5 might seem a little intimidating—this game has the potential to get out of control fast—but when it comes to big plays, Saquon is always a threat.
Just look at the trend: Bijan Robinson hit his longest run prop last week, and before that, Isaac Guerendo had a 19-yarder, while David Montgomery and Derrick Henry both broke loose as well. Barkley has the explosive stats to back up a bet like this: he’s second in the NFL in runs of 20+ yards, first in runs of 10+ yards, fifth in yards after contact, and eighth in missed tackles forced. In fact, he’s beaten his longest rush total in six of eight games against the Cowboys. And let’s face it, embarrassing Dallas is something the Eagles and their fans would love to see.
Sure, there’s a chance this game could be a blowout by halftime, with Barkley chilling on the sidelines in the fourth quarter. But before that happens, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to bust out a couple of game-changing runs against his fiercest rival.
Khalil Shakir OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Bills’ receiving corps is looking pretty banged up heading into Week 10. With Curtis Samuel, Amari Cooper, and Keon Coleman all listed as questionable for their showdown against the Colts, it could be Khalil Shakir’s time to shine!
Shakir has already been reliable this season, averaging 58.9 receiving yards per game. Given the current state of Buffalo’s receiver room, he’s likely to see more targets, and there’s a solid chance he’ll at least match his season average. With the Bills potentially needing to lean on him more heavily, Shakir could be primed for a standout performance.
Garrett Wilson OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Wilson leads the NFL in targets, and guess what? Even with Davante Adams joining the squad, his workload hasn’t taken a hit—in fact, it’s only gotten better! With defenses having to keep an eye on Adams, Wilson has been getting higher-quality looks, and he’s now averaging an impressive 94.4 yards per game, with a whopping 12 targets per game over his last 12 matchups.
Sure, the Arizona defense looked sharp last week, but that was against a Bears team that seemed to throw in the towel mid-game. The Cardinals are still giving up the fifth-most first downs through the air and the eighth-most receiving yards to wideouts.
Plus, Aaron Rodgers is getting the ball to Wilson fast, setting him up perfectly for big gains with yards after the catch. And if you needed more proof of Wilson’s playmaking skills, just think back to last Thursday night, when he made some jaw-dropping grabs against a strong Texans secondary.
