Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10

The fantasy playoff stretch drive starts with an excellent AFC North battle. This rematch of a Week 5 shootout won by the Baltimore Ravens 41-38 over the Cincinnati Bengals should be one of the NFL’s games of the month. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10 breaks down the game from a fantasy and sports betting perspective.

At 4-5 with a loss to the Ravens already in the books, this is a crucial game for the Bengals’ playoff odds. And after losing five of their last six against Baltimore, the pressure is on for Zac Taylor’s bunch.

Meanwhile, the Ravens boast the league’s top offense. John Harbaugh’s team added reinforcements at the trade deadline and has had Cincinnati’s number of late.

Baltimore opened as 3-point favorites but that line quickly doubled. Meanwhile, the total, which opened at 47, has shot up to a Week 10-high 53 points.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Cincinnati Bengals	17	5	26	14	6
Baltimore Ravens	1	2	1	1	1

Last week’s Jets/Texans game was a snoozer. However, this game has some potential. Both squads rank inside the top 6 in scoring. And the first meeting between these rivals resulted in 962 combined yards and 53 first downs. Inject it into our veins!

The Bengals are a pass-first team led by Joe Burrow, who ranks third in fantasy points and is tied for second in the league with 20 touchdown passes. However, Cincinnati ranks 26th in rushing and is better at defending the run than the pass.

But the Ravens have the best offense in the NFL, ranking first in rushing and second in passing. That makes Baltimore’s balance problematic for the Bengals and every opponent.

Cincinnati Offense

Joe Burrow is in prime form. Burrow boasts a 21-4 total TD-to-INT ratio and ranks fifth with 2,244 passing yards. In that Week 5 shootout, Burrow had his finest fantasy outing of the season, throwing for a season-high 392 yards and five touchdowns. We can’t expect a repeat of those numbers, but Burrow should have another excellent performance.

The Ravens have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing passers. Additionally, Burrow averages 283.9 passing yards and 2.1 TD strikes in eight career matchups with Baltimore. Subsequently, Burrow is an elite fantasy option in Week 10.

RB Chase Brown comes off the best game of his young career. Brown took every running back touch for the Bengals last week and delivered 157 total yards and a touchdown. Only one running back has exceeded 50 rushing yards against the Ravens all season. However, those numbers are inflated by game scripts. Brown will see ample volume in this game. As a result, he’s a strong RB1.

Like Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase has feasted on the Ravens. In seven games against Baltimore, Chase has averaged 99.7 receiving yards and scored five times. And the matchup couldn’t be better. No team has surrendered more fantasy points to wideouts than the Ravens. Additionally, Chase destroyed Baltimore in Week 5, snagging 10-of-12 targets for 193 yards and a pair of scores.

Tee Higgins has not practiced with a quad injury. Therefore, Andrei Iosvias will be Cincinnati’s No. 2 receiver. Iosvias hasn’t caught more than two passes or topped 50 receiving yards in any game since Week 2. Therefore, he’s little more than a TD-or-Bust DFS option.

Trenton Irwin, Jermaine Burton (healthy scratch) and Kendric Pryor will fill in as ancillary wideouts but combined to catch one ball for nine yards. They are well off the fantasy radar.

On the other hand, TE Mike Gesicki looks like a must-start. In the four games that Higgins has missed, Gesicki averages 14.8 fantasy points per game. Last week, he topped 100 yards and scored a pair of TDs. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed 608 yards to enemy tight ends, third-most in the league.

Baltimore Offense

Lamar Jackson is the frontrunner to win another NFL MVP award. And for good reason. He is tied with Burrow in touchdown passes (20) and leads the position with 505 yards on the ground. No player has scored more fantasy points than Jackson.

Back in the Ravens’ Week 5 win in Cincinnati, Jackson threw for a season-best 348 yards and four touchdowns in his team’s victory. Jackson has totaled five touchdowns in each of his last two outings versus the Bengals. Therefore, he’s easily the QB1 overall for Week 10.

The player who ranks second in total fantasy points this season to Jackson is his teammate, RB Derrick Henry. Henry leads the league with 1,052 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns. He ran for 92 and a score in Week 5 and is -280 to rush for a TD with a yardage prop of 93.5.

Justice Hill will see a handful of touches as Baltimore’s RB2. If the Bengals keep the game close, Hill may factor in as the receiving back. However, if the Ravens get out to a multi-score lead and are grinding out the clock, Hill won’t see many touches. Therefore, he should be viewed as a middling RB3/4.

Zay Flowers is Baltimore’s undisputed top wideout. He caught seven for 111 in Week 5- which was close to what he totaled in two games versus Cincinnati in 2023. Flowers and Terry McLaurin are the only wide receivers to surpass triple-digits against the Bengals, who allow the tenth-fewest fantasy points to the position.

After Flowers, there is more uncertainty in the Ravens’ receiving corps. Rashod Bateman is having his best season, producing top-25 fantasy numbers. However, Bateman also has scored fewer than six fantasy points in his last two outings. He did post a solid 4/58/1 game in Cincinnati, so view him as a bye-week fill-in.

Diontae Johnson played fewer snaps than Nelson Agholor last week but that should change. Johnson has the potential to be a real weapon in this offense. However, for fantasy purposes, he is hard to trust until we see him establish a rapport with Lamar Jackson. Johnson and Agholor should only be used as DFS fliers in this one.

At tight end, we’re expecting Isaiah Likely to sit with a hamstring injury. That makes Mark Andrews look like an appealing top-12 fantasy option. He caught four for 55 in the previous matchup against a Bengals’ D that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Prediction & Best Bet

The Texans and Jets under brought our Best Bets record to 6-3 for the season. However, this game will be more challenging with a rematch between division rivals both of whom are elite scoring units.

Baltimore has won three straight against Cincinnati, by 3,6, and 3 points. Overall, the Ravens have won nine of the last 13 versus their AFC North rivals. Against the spread, the Ravens have won five straight in the series.

The OVER is 8-1 in Baltimore games this season.

On the other hand, Cincinnati is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this season. The OVER has hit in seven of the last 10 games with the Bengals as visitors. But the Bengals are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five matchups with the Bengals.

I think the Ravens win but will instead bank on a better defensive showing in a rematch.

Best Bet: UNDER 53

Thanks for reading our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10.

The 2024 NFL season is underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord!

All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates.