Week 5 NFL Player Props
Week 4 was our first unprofitable week of the season. After beginning the year with three consecutive successful betting weekends, a 2-5 record last week brought us down to +3.2 Units. Let’s see if we can get back in the winning column with our Week 5 NFL Player Props. We are now 16-11 in the young season.
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 5 NFL Player Props!
Jordan Love OVER 257.5 Passing Yards (-110)
The Los Angeles Rams’ defense has struggled across the board, but their pass defense is especially concerning. They’ve allowed the most yards per completion (12.6) and air yards per attempt (10.3) in the league, and now they face Jordan Love, who ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in average depth of target.
After missing Weeks 2 and 3, Love returned last Sunday, shaking off a slow first half to rack up 389 passing yards by the end of the game—following up his 260-yard performance against the Eagles in Week 1. Love and the Packers are primed for another big outing, and they get a bonus boost from the Rams’ defensive scheme. According to Pro Football Focus, the Rams run zone defense at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, but they rank 28th or worse in defensive success rate, yards per reception, and yards allowed per coverage snap when in zone.
Green Bay excels against zone defenses, and their wide receivers—Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs—are thriving. All three are in the Top 25 in yards per catch vs. zone and in the Top 30 in yards per route run against zone coverage, making them a dangerous trio for this matchup.
The only real threat to this passing total is if the Packers open up a huge lead and go run-heavy, but with their defense also struggling, this game could stay competitive enough for Love to keep airing it out all four quarters.
Gardner Minshew Interception (-130)
Gardner Minshew has already tossed three interceptions this season, and now he’s up against a top-tier Broncos secondary. That’s a recipe for trouble! Minshew will likely find himself under pressure to make some risky throws, trying to squeeze the ball into tight windows in what’s expected to be a close game down the stretch. With the Broncos’ defense lurking, it’s going to be a tough challenge for the mustachioed gunslinger to avoid mistakes!
Kareem Hunt OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Injuries have taken a toll on the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense, but one exciting storyline is the unexpected resurgence of Kareem Hunt. Once an afterthought, Hunt’s odds have quickly become relevant again. Less than three weeks ago, he was a free agent, but after signing with the Chiefs’ practice squad, the former KC star made an impressive return. Last week, he led the team with 14 carries, turning them into 69 yards in a gritty 17-10 win over the Chargers.
Heading into Monday Night Football against the New Orleans Saints, I love Hunt’s chances to exceed his modest rushing total of 35.5 yards. With Carson Steele benched after fumbling twice in three games and Samaje Perine locked into his third-down role, Hunt has little competition for early-down work.
Hunt dominated early-down snaps and led the running back room in Week 4. As he gets more comfortable and his fitness improves, we could see an even bigger workload this week. I wouldn’t expect Clyde Edwards-Helaire to factor in much, even if he suits up for his season debut.
Then there’s the Saints… which may not be the run defense powerhouse their numbers suggest. While they allowed just 100 rushing yards to running backs in their first two games, those were blowouts where opponents had to abandon the run. In their last two closer contests, they gave up 235 rushing yards to running backs at a staggering 7.3 yards per carry.
Given Kansas City’s offensive line ranks eighth in run-block win rate and the likelihood of a close game, it’s hard to see Hunt not clearing 40 yards—especially if he gets double-digit carries again. Expect a strong showing from Hunt under the Monday night lights!
Chuba Hubbard AnyTime Touchdown (+125)
Chuba Hubbard’s versatility as both a runner and receiver has dramatically boosted his scoring potential. With Andy Dalton now under center, Hubbard’s workload has spiked—he carried the ball 21 times in Week 3 and 18 times in Week 4. This surge in touches clearly shows that Hubbard has become a key piece of the Panthers’ offense even if that might change when Jonathan Brooks is fully healthy.
Hubbard has made the most of these chances, scoring a rushing touchdown and racking up 104 rushing yards on 18 carries against the Bengals, just a week after hauling in a receiving touchdown. His ability to be a threat on the ground and through the air makes him a constant danger in the red zone.
What makes this matchup even juicier is the Bears’ defense, which has struggled to stop the run, giving up five rushing touchdowns in just four games—three of which came inside the red zone. If the Panthers can move the ball effectively, Hubbard could see even more red zone action, boosting his chances to find the end zone.
Additionally, two of those rushing touchdowns allowed by Chicago came from explosive plays of 26 and 29 yards. With the Panthers’ offensive line showing improvement in run blocking, Hubbard could be primed for a big play himself. Considering his recent performance, increased role, and the Bears’ issues with stopping the run, the plus odds for an anytime touchdown look like a fantastic wager!
Jayden Reed Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
I already mentioned that I expect Jordan Love to have a big game so it only stands to reason that his top playmaker will ball out on Sunday too. Jayden Reed is in for a big game against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams run zone coverage on a whopping 76.7% of passing plays, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. But here’s the kicker—they don’t play it well at all. According to PFF, the Rams rank in the bottom three in both yards per coverage snap (7.73) and yards per coverage target (9.2). And guess what? Reed thrives against zone coverage!
Let’s break it down: Reed is averaging a mind-blowing 4.38 yards per route run versus zone this year—that’s the highest in the NFL among all wide receivers with more than one target (yes, one), which includes a total of 134 receivers! But wait, it gets even better.
Reed’s 4.38 YPRR comes from racking up 315 yards on just 72 routes, catching 14 of his 16 targets. If you think his route count (18 per game) seems low, there’s a good reason. Those stats include the two games when Malik Willis was at QB for the Packers. But in the two games Jordan Love has started, Reed has been on fire—catching 10 of 12 targets for 262 yards on 54 routes (that’s 27 per game). With Love at the helm, Reed’s YPRR jumps to an incredible 4.85! He’s also put up back-to-back games with 138 and 139 receiving yards.
This is hands down my favorite Week 5 player prop, and I’m all in on Reed lighting it up again! I’ll be sprinkling an extra unit or two on this one.
Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 Receptions (+110)
Terry McLaurin is rookie phenom Jayden Daniels’ go-to guy, and the numbers back it up. McLaurin has been targeted on a solid 26.4% of Daniels’ passes, with that number jumping to 29.3% over the last three weeks. Expect more of the same when the Commanders take on the Cleveland Browns.
What makes this matchup even juicier is that Daniels loves throwing to McLaurin against man coverage, targeting him at a 29.6% clip versus man, compared to just 20.6% against zone. And guess what? The Browns play man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league. Even better, Cleveland keeps their corners locked on one side—Denzel Ward sticks to the left 89% of the time, while Martin Emerson Jr. lines up on the right 87% of the time. Since McLaurin lines up on the left side 72% of the time, he’ll mostly be matched up against Emerson, who has the lowest coverage grade (per PFF) out of 79 cornerbacks who’ve played at least 50% of their team’s snaps.
The Browns’ defense is great at pressuring quarterbacks, generating a 36% pressure rate (fifth-highest in the NFL). One of the best ways to counter that? Quick throws. Over half of McLaurin’s targets this year (15) have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, perfect for making the most of YAC (yards after catch). This is where it gets fun—Emerson has an 18.5% missed tackle rate, the sixth-highest among 79 primary corners. Expect plenty of quick passes to McLaurin, designed to let him do damage after the catch.
There’s also a chance that Commanders’ starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. might miss this game due to a knee injury, after sitting out two practices. If Robinson is sidelined, Washington will likely rely even more on the passing game. I like McLaurin to snag a handful of catches regardless, but with the possibility of an increased workload, it makes this prop even more exciting!
Harrison Butker OVER 7.5 Kicking Points (-125)
This one might seem a bit chalky, but with the Chiefs now missing two major red-zone threats in Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco, things could get interesting. Patrick Mahomes may be a magician inside the 20, but he’ll face his toughest challenge yet against the Saints, who boast the league’s best red-zone defense.
New Orleans has allowed touchdowns on just 22.2% of red-zone trips this season, making them a nightmare for opposing offenses. Meanwhile, Kansas City has struggled in the red zone, going just 5-for-11 on touchdown conversions so far—even with Rice and Pacheco in the mix.
This sets up a prime opportunity for Harrison Butker to shine. If the Chiefs are forced to settle for field goals, Butker’s accuracy will be crucial. He’s 8-for-9 on the season and boasts an impressive 89% conversion rate for his career. Expect him to deliver if given the chance!
