Jody Smith’s 2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers
The 2024 NFL preseason is officially underway. That means it is almost fantasy draft season- the most wonderful time of the year! For football fans, at least.
Fantasy football drafts have been going for some time and we have well-established ADPs to determine value. Using up-to-date draft positions and our 2024 fantasy football projections, we can mine out players who look ripe for exploiting their value. These sleepers can make all the difference between compiling a competitive roster and a real championship contender.
Here are some of my favorite values and sleepers to target in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) – My most-rostered quarterback so far this season is Brock Purdy. After finishing as the QB6 last season, I’m not sure why the fantasy world seems to be out of Purdy. He is regularly available outside of QB1 range. However, Purdy is the perfect fit in Kyle Shanahan’s offense- a unit that ranked 4th in passing and 3rd in scoring in 2023. Also, the Niners are bringing back the same players who led the club to the Super Bowl. Finally, the 49ers have the easiest schedule for quarterbacks per FullTime’s Strength of Schedule Tool.
Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Overall, the quarterback position is very deep in 2024. That depth is another reason to simply wait to draft your signal caller and load up on other positions early. Like Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence faired better last season than fantasy managers seem to recall. Lawrence’s 2023 output (QB12) was eerily similar to his 2022 showing (QB7). Additionally, the Jaguars added Gabriel Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., giving Lawrence plenty of weapons. Lawrence has been durable and can boost his fantasy output on the ground behind an improved offensive line. Despite a rough schedule, I think he will contend for top-10 fantasy numbers once again. That makes Lawrence another solid value to target late in drafts.
Bo Nix (Denver Broncos) – I’m not saying Nix is an option in single-QB formats, but he should be on the Superflex radar. Nix has looked good this summer, showing reliable accuracy and leadership. Also, he has looked like a plus runner. Sean Payton has a fantasy-friendly offense that relies on myriad quick-read, short throws. No FBS QB had more passing yards or TD throws behind the line of scrimmage than Nix- a Sean Payton staple. Nix enters the NFL with a ton of experience at Oregon and will be reunited with fellow Ducks’ rookie Troy Franklin. Nix looks like a good fit in Payton’s offense and could surprise many people by posting top-20 fantasy numbers as a rookie.
Other QB values I like: Justin Herbert (LAC), Kirk Cousins (ATL), Derek Carr (NO)
Running Backs
Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers) – In PPR formats, Jaylen Warren quietly finished as the RB20 last season. Now, the Steelers have brought in Arthur Smith to run the offense. Four of the last five offenses that Smith has commanded have finished top 10 in rushing. Najee Harris will also be involved, but Warren is far more explosive. Also, the Falcons threw 124 passes to running backs in 2023. Warren is far better as a receiver and ranked sixth with 74 targets for Pittsburgh. He’s an RB2 that is regularly available outside of the top 30 running backs.
Devin Singletary (New York Giants) – The Giants let Saquon Barkley walk and will try to replace him with a cheaper version. However, the gap might not be as big as you think. Singletary has a higher career success rate as a runner and receiver. Singletary breaks tackles at a higher rate and has been more durable. Additionally, Singletary posted RB20 numbers in 2021, with Brain Daboll as Buffalo’s play-caller. For the many fantasy managers choosing to attack the wide receiver position early, Singletary makes a solid mid-round #ZeroRB target.
Brian Robinson (Washington Commanders) – Kliff Kingsbury is known as a passing guru, but the Arizona Cardinals ranked top-10 in rushing and rushing scores in three of Kingsbury’s four seasons at the helm. With Kingsbury back in the league, Robinson will lead the Commanders in rushing attempts and get most of the valuable goal-line attempts. However, he may do more than that. Robinson is an underrated receiver who led all running backs with 10.2 yards per catch last season. Austin Ekeler will siphon some of the work, but B-Rob has 1000-yard potential with double-digit TD upside.
Nick Chubb/Jerome Ford (Cleveland Browns) – There is no timetable for Nick Chubb’s return from a cataclysmic knee injury. However, Chubb has wowed Cleveland media by running full speed, making cuts, and squatting insane amounts of weight. Meanwhile, the Browns are in good hands as Jerome Ford posted RB16 numbers in relief of Chubb last winter. Succeeding in fantasy is about taking calculated risks and it’s quite easy to snag both of Cleveland’s running backs in fantasy drafts. Doing so assures you the vast majority of a backfield that has ranked 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 12th in rushing since Kevin Stefanski’s arrival.
Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys) – Zeke made this list last season and posted respectable RB30 numbers. Although he’s lost more than a step, Elliott finds himself in a much better place in 2024, going from New England’s moribund offense to a Dallas unit that led the NFL in scoring. Dallas rushed for 1,920 yards and 14 touchdowns last season—both above-average marks. Also, there is little established competition for touches behind Elliott, who is expected to act as the Cowboys’ RB1 in his reunion. There is a good chance that Elliott will approach 250 touches this season and contend for RB2/3 numbers.
Jaylen Wright (Miami Dolphins) – If you’re looking for a late-round, high-upside value, Jaylen Wright is your guy. Wright blazed a 4.38, giving him a 95th-percentile Speed Score- higher than De’Von Achane. Additionally, Wright (5-10, 210) is the biggest back in Miami’s backfield, giving him potential red-zone value. The Dolphins traded a future third to move up for Wright, who has turned heads at training camp. As low as his ADP is, there is no downside to taking a late-round stab on Wright as a lotto ticket.
More RBs to target: James Conner (ARZ), MarShawn Lloyd (GB), J.K. Dobbins (LAC), Keaton Mitchell (BAL), Tyrone Tracy (NYG)
Wide Receivers
Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Most of my main hit points for Christian Kirk were brought up in my Preseason Pro. Kirk will reclaim Jacksonville’s No. 1 wideout role. In his first season in that role, Kirk posted WR26 numbers (77/982/5) before breaking out in 2022. That season, he finished as the WR12 with 133 targets, 84 grabs, 1,108 yards, and eight scores. 120 targets seem like the floor for Kirk, who will contend for top-20 numbers in an underrated Jacksonville offense.
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – We will see a new offense in Tampa. The first bit of good news is that the club retained Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield. However, a tastier nugget of info is that Chris Godwin will be a full-time slot receiver again. Godwin has thrived in that role in the past and will be in a position to post his fourth consecutive season with 125-plus targets and 1000-plus yards. Godwin was a screaming value last season and finished as the WR29. Rinse and repeat.
Chris Godwin’s fantasy football finishes | slot WR snap% by year:
WR38 (2023) | 38% slot
WR20 (2022) | 73%
WR9 (2021) | 70%
WR15 (2020) | 57%
WR2 (2019) | 55%
WR36 (2018) | 30%Four-straight seasons as top-20 WR in points per game when a full-time slot WR. He’s back this year.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 25, 2024
Curtis Samuel (Buffalo Bills) – Another repeat from last year, Samuel has shined all summer for the Bills. New Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady has focused heavily on utilizing Samuel all over the field. That includes out of the backfield. In 2020, Brady coached Samuel to a WR23 finish with the Panthers. Samuel may be the best bet to be the club’s No. 1 wideout and offers significant upside at an ADP outside of the top 40 wideouts.
Josh Palmer (Los Angeles Chargers) – A common topic this offseason revolved around Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman torpedoing the Chargers’ offense. While Los Angeles will attempt to establish the run, Justin Herbert is too good of a quarterback to not post quality fantasy numbers. Palmer is in line to be the club’s No. 1 receiver but is currently being selected outside of the top 50. Roman has already complemented Palmer’s work ethic and Herbert praised Palmer’s versatility. Palmer led all returning Chargers in receiving yards and target rate and has a good rapport with his quarterback. He’s a superb sleeper to target in the second half of drafts.
Rashid Shaheed (New Orleans Saints) – Utilized as a deep threat last season, Rashid Shaheed will step into the starting role vacated by Michael Thomas. Shaheed only commanded a 14% target share last season but with Thomas’s 64 (17%) looks available, he is expected to take a huge step forward as the Saints’ No. 2 wideout. Shaheed ranked 17th in fantasy points per target in 2023. Any significant increase in opportunities could lead to a breakout into weekly WR2/3 territory for the speedster.
Kalif Raymond (Detroit Lions) – PFF’s WR33 last season, Kalif Raymond has quietly posted usable fantasy numbers in each of the past three seasons as Detroit’s WR3/4. Now, he’s locked into a WR3 or better role in a surging offense. Raymond has finished as the WR53,63, and 71 dating back to 2021. Those aren’t league-winning numbers. However, he’s got a secure path to routes and can be a decent bye-week fill-in worth stashing on the end of your roster.
Other wideouts to consider: Brandin Cooks (DAL), Jermaine Burton (CIN), Darnel Mooney (ATL), Luke McCaffrey (WAS), Dontayvion Wicks (GB), Jalen Tolbert (DAL), Andrei Iosivas (CIN), Greg Dortch (ARZ), Brandon Powell (MIN)
Tight Ends
Noah Fant (Seattle Seahawks) – There is a new regime in Seattle. Gone are the days of a frustrating three-man TE rotation. The Seahawks paid Noah Fant to be a full-time starter and that’s what we expect him to be. Fant’s 5.9 fantasy points per game and 43 targets led that group last season. With Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly gone, 56 targets are unaccounted for. Fant has proven he can be a productive player in the league. He ranked as the fantasy TE14, TE12, TE11, and TE17 before bottoming out last year. Expect a rebound with a good shot at another top-20 campaign.
Tyler Conklin (New York Jets) – Mike Williams is still recovering from surgery and the Jets have no other established wide receivers on the roster. Conklin ranked third on the club last year with a respectable 87 targets. He very quietly posted TE15 fantasy numbers and is in a much better position to produce with Aaron Rodgers under center. Conklin is a solid late-round value to target for the many fantasy managers who miss out on the elite tier of tight ends.
Taysom Hill (New Orleans Saints) – Depending on your league’s settings, Taysom Hill could be the biggest tight ends sleeper of the season. However, in most leagues, Hill is classified as a quarterback. But if he’s TE-eligible in your league, Hill offers massive appeal as a potential fantasy TE1.
The Saints love to use Hill as a Swiss Army-esque weapon. Last season, he finished as the TE12. This came despite Hill only commanding 40 targets. The majority of his fantasy output came as a rusher, where he compiled 401 yards and four touchdowns. Additionally, Hill passed for 83 yards and another score. Dennis Allen has already stated that Hill’s role won’t change. In fact, New Orleans has toyed with using Hill as a kick returner. If Hill can be classified as a tight end in your league, he’s one of the most savvy sleepers of the 2024 draft season.
Other tight ends values: Hunter Henry (NE), Jonnu Smith (MIA), Zach Ertz (WAS), Theo Johnson (NYG), Davis Allen (LAR), Cade Stover (HOU)
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