2024 San Diego Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 San Diego Padres preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 San Diego Padres Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
The Padres tried to compete with the Dodgers over the past few seasons by adding some top-tier players. Their choices weren’t thought out well, leading to a flawed plan and a regressive team build. San Diego made the postseason twice over the past four years after 13 consecutive missed playoff trips. They come off back-to-back winning seasons (89-73 and 82-80). The Padres made the postseason only five times in the team’s 55-year history. Their only World Series appearance (loss) came in 1998.
San Diego had the second-best ERA (3.73) in baseball in 2023, thanks to Blake Snell (2.25 ERA over 180.0 innings). The bullpen only had 22 wins (lowest in baseball), 30 losses, and 36 saves over 577.1 innings with a 3.80 ERA (10th) and 575 strikeouts. The Padres ranked 13th in runs (752), home runs (205), and RBIs (719). They stole 137 bases on 169 attempts (81.1%).
In the offseason, the Padres acquired SP Michael King, SP Drew Thorpe, SP Randy Vasquez, SP Jhony Britto, and C Kyle Higashioka for OF Juan Soto and OF Trent Grisham. They lost SP Blake Snell, SP Seth Lugo, SP Michael Wacha, CL Josh Hader, SP Nick Martinez, C Gary Sanchez, and SP Rich Hill to free agency. San Diego signed RP Yuki Matsui, RP Wandy Peralta, RP Woo-Suk Go, and OF Cal Mitchell while claiming SP Luis Patino off waivers.
Two veteran arms (Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish) lead their starting rotation. They hope that their three “New Editions” can dance their way to the mound every fifth day in the near future. The ninth inning is in flux, inviting more drama late in games.
San Diego has two star bats (Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado) supported by two complementary players (Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim). The rest of the offense looks below the league average as a group.
Starting Lineup
OF Fernando Tatis
In 2021, Tatis had a sensational first 274 at-bats (67 runs, 28 home runs, 60 RBIs, and 20 stolen bases). Unfortunately, his bat had a step back in value after the All-Star break (.278/32/14/37/5 over 205 at-bats). He missed 10 days over the first half of April (shoulder), another nine days in May (COVID-19), a slight scare in June (one game), and 16 more days in late July and early August (shoulder).
After missing all of 2022 with his suspension and recovery from shoulder surgery, Tatis returned to the Padres starting lineup on April 20th. Despite hitting nine home runs over his first 150 at-bats, he had weakness in his runs (21) and RBIs (19) with a short batting average (.240). He played much better over the next third of the season (.293/38/9/34/12 over 215 at-bats). Tatis drove the bus home with more subpar play (.233 with 32 runs, seven home runs, and 25 RBIs) except for 12 stolen bases.
His strikeout rate (22.2) was the best of his career, with a league-average walk rate (8.4) that was below his two best seasons (10.5 and 11.4). He had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.341 – .432 over his first 1,036 at-bats with the Padres). In addition, his average hit rate (1.743) was below his first three years.
Tatis had regression in his exit velocity (91.9) and hard-hit rate (49.3). He finished with a lower flyball rate (33.6) than in 2021 (39.9), and his HR/FB rate (17.0) was well below his previous three seasons (31.9, 29.3, and 32.1).
Fantasy Outlook: The luster of Tatis looks diminished this year due to the loss of Juan Soto hitting behind him in the lineup and the lower outlook of the Padres offense in 2024. In addition, he lost his shortstop qualification. His ADP (8) fits his potential, plus his five-category skill set. A correction in batting average is expected while offering a 30/30 floor in home runs and steals. I don’t expect elite RBI chances, so he must drive himself in more to help his counting stats.
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Over seven seasons in Korea, Kim hit .294 with 133 home runs, 575 RBIs, and 134 stolen bases over 3,195 at-bats. His best success came in 2020 (.306 with 111 runs, 30 home runs, 109 RBI, and 23 steals over 533 at-bats).
His average hit rate (1.712) was career-high in 2020, while his previous success from 2016 to 2019 supports closer to 20 home runs. Kim finished with the best approach (strikeout rate – 10.9 and walk rate – 12.1) in his last season in Korea while grading well in this area over five seasons.
In his first experience in the majors in 2021, Kim had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.276) with some regression in his approach (strikeout rate – 23.8 and walk rate – 7.4). He hit .200 or lower in four different months while receiving fewer than 40 at-bats in each of the final four months.
The Padres gave Kim 150 games in 2022 to prove his worth in the majors. He finished the year ranked 108th in FPGscore (-1.61), with his only helpful stat coming in stolen bases (12). Kim played well over 51 games in July and August (.302/19/3/24/5 over 172 at-bats). His strikeout rate (17.2) and walk rate (8.8) beat the league average.
Kim became one of the Padres’ best players last year, leading to career-highs in almost every category. His contact batting average (.338) and average hit rate (1.529) still trail his best years in Korea, and he must improve with runners on base (RBI rate – 13). Kim shined against left-handed pitching (.302/25/8/28/11 over 169 at-bats). His season started (.209/7/2/6/5 over 86 at-bats) and ended (.176/8/0/8/9 over 91 at-bats) with quiet months and low production in four categories.
Kim ranked 363rd in exit velocity (86.2) and 384th in hard-hit rate (26.7). He had a balanced swing path (21/40/39) with a rise in his HR/FB rate (10.5 – 6.7 in 2022). His approach (strikeout rate – 19.8 and walk rate – 12.0) is now an area of strength.
Fantasy Outlook: San Diego is moving Kim to shortstop this year while retaining his fantasy eligibility at three positions. Last year, the Padres gave him 287 at-bats (53.3%) in their lead-off slot in the batting order and 32 hitting second (5.9%). In 2024, he should hit him in those two positions for most of his playing time, helping his overall opportunity and counting stats. His spike in stolen bases (38) led to Kim finishing 39th in FPGscore (2.19) for hitters.
Kim’s ADP (87) in the NFBC in early March ranked him 12th at SS, 8th at 2B, and 51st for batters. Kim ran more than three times more than in 2022, and his career path in Korea supported his output in steals. He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough (only 18 barrels last year – the same in 2022) to project a further spike in power. On paper, his 2023 profile has much in common with CJ Abrams from a fantasy perspective. The most significant difference is one player (Abrams) has a much higher ceiling. A drafter should expect a few more runs, some batting average risk, and a 15/35 profile from Kim.
3B Manny Machado
His FPGscore (7.60) ranked 7th for hitters in 2022, thanks to a high floor in all five categories. He finished with a five-year high in contact batting average (.387), with only a small gain in batting average due to a career-high strikeout rate (20.7 – 15.9 in 2021 and 17.0 in his career). Machado settled into a higher walk rate (9.9) over the past five seasons.
He played well against right-handed pitchers (.313/74/20/80 over 416 at-bats). Machado hit .327 over his first 257 at-bats with 49 runs, 12 home runs, 46 RBIs, and seven steals while finding his power stride in August and September (.304/37/14/45/2 over 227 at-bats).
Machado had a minimum of 564 at-bats over eight consecutive seasons (excluding the 60-game schedule in 2020) heading into last year. Unfortunately, he battled a right elbow injury (extensor tendon) late in the season that required surgery. He also spent a couple of weeks on the injured list in May with a broken bone in his left hand.
Over his first 40 games in 2023, Machado only hit .231 with 18 runs, five home runs, 19 RBIs, and two stolen bases. His production returned over his final 376 at-bats (.274/57/25/72), but he rarely ran (one steal on three attempts). He held form vs. lefties (.308 with seven home runs and 23 RBIs over 133 at-bats).
Machado dipped to 74th in exit velocity (91.0) and 80th in hard-hit rate (45.9). He finished with the highest flyball rate (44.5) of his career, with no change in his HR/FB rate (15.3). His approach remains in a favorable area for a power hitter.
Fantasy Outlook: With an unknown return to the starting lineup in 2024, Machado has been discounted in the early draft season (ADP – 66 in early March). The Padres suggested that he is unlikely to play in the field early in the season. He has already taken at-bats in spring training at DH, giving the fantasy market more confidence to draft him this year. Machado was the 56th-best hitter in 2023 based on his FPGscore (1.07) while missing 24 games and losing value in runs, batting average, and steals. The Padres have enough talent in front of him in the batting order to expect a .280/90/30/100/10 season. At age 31, he needs 1,263 hits to reach 3,000 for his career.
SS Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts almost posted identical average hit rates (1.672 and 1.673) and contact batting average rates (.377 and .375) in 2020 and 2021, but he came up short in home runs (23) and RBI (79) in the latter season. In addition, the lack of Mookie Betts hitting in front of him led to fewer RBI chances (395 – 443 in 2019 and 406 in 2018 over 136 games).
After posting an excellent first half (.321/57/15/51/5 over 321 at-bats) in 2022, he lost his way in July (.234 with three home runs and seven RBI over 77 at-bats). Bogaerts limped home after the All-Star break with a .255 batting average with 33 runs, eight home runs, and 28 RBI over 208 at-bats while missing time in early September with COVID-19. He did develop a sore left wrist in mid-July.
Last year, Bogaerts gave any fantasy supporter a disappointing feel from May through August (.244/37/9/32 over 386 at-bats) except for his output in steals (12). His season started well in April (.308 with 21 runs, six home runs, 13 RBIs, and one steal over 107 at-bats) while delivering a life raft finish in September (.418/25/4/13/6 over 103 at-bats).
His volume of at-bats (596) helped his counting stats, other than RBIs (58), which failed due to a dismal RBI rate (9.7), not RBI chances (414). Bogaerts maintained favorable strikeout (16.5%) and walk (8.4%) rates.
His exit velocity (87.6) and hard-hit rate (34.6) were six-year lows and well off his peak in 2019 (90.7/44.5). He had the highest groundball rate (50.4 – 45.5 in his career) since 2015.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on his low RBI rate over the past four seasons, Bogaerts doesn’t have the profile to hit cleanup. He’ll get on base and offer a reasonable floor in power and speed. The change to second base this year does push him into a different comparison of players. His ADP (106) in the NFBC prices him as the 10th second base option (58th batter drafted) despite not having that qualification yet. Last year, Bogaerts ranked 55th in FPGscore (1.38) for hitters. I view him as a safe veteran selection. I question a rebound in power based on his fading average hit rate (1.541). Think .290/80/15/70/15 and hope for a rebound on his ability to hit the ball hard while adding back some loft.
2B Jake Cronenworth
The Padres gave Cronenworth his first starting job in the majors in 2021, and his bat responded with 70th ranked season by FPGscore (0.47) for hitters. He finished with an above-average walk rate (8.6) and strength in his strikeout rate (14.0). Cronenworth shined over 202 at-bats in May and June (.297 with 40 runs, 10 home runs, and 29 RBI).
In 2022, his bat had a losing feel in April and May (.210/25/3/19 over 186 at-bats) while also coming up empty again in July (.205/15/2/7 over 88 at-bats). In June, Cronenworth saved his first half with an excellent showing (.315 over 108 at-bats with 24 runs, four home runs, and 24 RBIs). He offered more power (eight home runs and 24 RBIs) in August and September despite continued weakness in batting average (.244).
Cronenworth had a disappointing season in all categories and key data points in 2023. His year ended in mid-August with a right wrist injury that didn’t require surgery. He had no fantasy value in any month, with his best output coming in April (.220/15/3/14/1 over 100 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (18.6) fell short of his career average (17.1) while continuing to have a slight edge in his walk rate (8.8). Cronenworth had a career-low in his HR/FB rate (6.8), but he maintained a reasonable average hit rate (1.648) with a more balanced swing path (22/37/41). His contact batting average (.291) regressed for the fifth consecutive season. Cronenworth finished with a low-ranking exit velocity (87.4 – 316th) and hard-hit rate (33.2 – 318th).
Fantasy Outlook: The change in the offensive roster in 2024 suggests that Cronenworth will see more time at first base. His bat can’t support that position over the long haul, so he must deliver more power to avoid a rotation utility player role. His ADP (371) paints Cronenworth as a bench player in 15-team formats. With full-time at-bats, he could surprise based on his success in 2021 and 2022. At best, a 15/10 player with 500 at-bats with the approach to hit for a higher batting average.
C Luis Campusano
Over six seasons in the minors, Campusano hit .300 over 1,452 at-bats with 211 runs, 52 home runs, and 256 RBIs. He has 167 games at AAA (.297/113/30/108 over 626 at-bats). His walk rate (9.2) and strikeout rate (15.7) were favorable to start his career.
The Padres gave him 85 at-bats of experience from 2020 to 2022, but Campusano failed to make an impact (.188/6/2/7) while offering a weaker approach (strikeout rate – 26.1 and walk rate – 5.4).
After making their opening-day roster last year, his bat looked poised to help the Padres. Unfortunately, 15 games into the season, Campusano sprained his left thumb in a bullpen session, putting him out of action for 3+ months. He also missed the final week of the year with a left ankle injury. San Diego only gave him a platoon role after the All-Star break despite success with his bat (.331/24/6/28 over 142 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (12.1) was the best of his career at any level, but Campusano barely took any walks. He finished below the league average in exit velocity (88.5) and hard-hit rate (40.6).
Fantasy Outlook: Last year was a missed opportunity for anyone drafting Campusano as he looked poised to offer winning C2 stats. In 2024, many more drafters are aware of his potential, and the structure of the Padres’ offense and his approach could lead to a cleanup opportunity, a potential big win for his fantasy value. His RBI rate (20) was elite last year, but it was a small sample size. In early March, Campusano has an ADP of 190 in the high-stakes market, ranking him 17th at the catcher position. San Diego should give him 450 at-bats, pointing to a 60/20/60 season with help in batting average. I expect him to outperform his draft value in 2024.
OF Jurickson Profar
Profar was a bust in 2021 after looking like a player with 20 home run power and double-digit steals. He checked the speed box with fewer at-bats (353) than expected.
The Padres gave Profar the best opportunity of his career in 2022, leading to career highs in at-bats (575), hits (140), and doubles (36). Unfortunately, his contact batting average (.297) was under .300 for the third time in four seasons while struggling with runners on base (RBI rate – 13).
Last year, he never found his rhythm at the plate, highlighted repeated weakness in his contact batting average (.301). Profar attempted only one stolen base with another low output in home runs (9). The Rockies gave him starting at-bats (286) over the first three months, leading to 35 runs, six home runs, and 30 RBIs. His strikeout rate (17.3) and walk rate (9.6) remained in favorable areas. He only had three home runs and 14 RBIs after the All-Star break over 149 at-bats.
Profar had weakness in his HR/FB rate (6.5), which was well below his three best seasons (13.2, 14.0, and 14.9). His hard-hit rate (31.8) and exit velocity (86.5) aligned with his career average.
Fantasy Outlook: When reviewing his Statcast data, Profar had a profile similar to his better seasons. His swing path leads to many line drives, but his ball in play lacks zip-off-the-bat 70% of the time. He needs to get stronger to help his exit velocity and potential batting average. Profar brings an above-average approach, but he doesn’t deserve a starting opportunity at this point in his career. His ADP (635) remains deep in the free agent pool despite signing with San Diego.
3B Eguy Rosario
Rosario has been with the Padres since he was 16 in 2016. Over seven seasons in the minors, he hit .274 with 408 runs, 58 home runs, 364 RBIs, and 141 steals over 2,615 at-bats. San Diego gave him 656 at-bats over the last two seasons at AAA (.282/122/27/109/25). His walk rate (9.3) has been favorable, with a league-average strikeout rate (20.8). He missed much of 2023 with a broken ankle.
Over the past season, Rosario had 41 at-bats (.250/6/2/6) in the majors, but he struck out 14 times with two walks. His contact batting average has been higher than .350 over the past four seasons.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on his stats in 2022 between AA and AAA (.288 with 98 runs, 22 home runs, 81 RBIs, and 21 steals over 490 at-bats), Rosario could work his way to significant at-bats for San Diego this year. His ADP (735) in the NFBC puts him well off the radar in the fantasy market this year. Worth a follow and a possible dart if given starting at-bats with the Padres.
OF Jose Azocar
Over the past two seasons, the Padres gave Azocar 293 at-bats in the majors. His runs (40) and steals (13) graded well, but he only hit two home runs with 19 RBIs. His walk rate (5.0) has weakness, with a league average strikeout rate (21.4).
Azocar hit .279 over 10 seasons in the minors with 415 runs, 35 home runs, 390 RBIs, and 124 stolen bases over 3,302 at-bats. He had 489 at-bats AAA (.284/68/10/70/38) while walking 22 times with 114 strikeouts.
Fantasy Outlook: His overall profile isn’t high enough to earn a starting job in the majors. Azocar is only a placeholder until the Padres sign another bat to upgrade one outfield position or improve their options at DH.
Bench Options
SS Jackson Merrill
Merrill came to San Diego via the 27th selection in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three short seasons in the minors, he hit .295 with 133 runs, 21 home runs, 114 RBIs, and 31 stole bases over 800 at-bats. His highest experience level is AA (.273/26/5/31/5 over 187 at-bats). Merrill has a below-par walk rate (7.4) while being challenging to strikeouts (15.1).
Fantasy Outlook: Despite no experience at AAA, his scouting report and approach give him a chance to reach San Diego in 2024. The Padres’ challenge is finding a new position for him. His ADP (473) may be closer to starting fantasy value than his real major league opportunity.
3B Matthew Batten
The Padres took a flier on Batten in the 32nd round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft. He has spent part of five seasons at AAA (.281 with 265 runs, 36 home runs, 183 RBIs, and 79 stolen bases over 1,455 at-bats), painting him as an 85/12/60/25 player. His walk rate (11.5) has been an asset in the minors, with a slightly below-par strikeout rate (23.0).
Batten started last season at AAA for 86 games. He hit .235 with 71 runs, 12 home runs, 50 RBIs, and 27 stolen bases over 353 at-bats. San Diego gave him 120 at-bats (.258/19/2/11/2) over the final three months, where he showed a favorable approach (strikeout rate – 21.6 and walk rate – 12.2).
Fantasy Outlook: Batten has the profile of a middle infielder with double-digit power and a chance at 30 bags if given 550 at-bats. He’ll be found in the free-agent pool until he proves he belongs in a major league starting lineup. Batten could see starting at-bats at 3B to open the season until Manny Machado assumes his role on the field.
Starting Pitching
SP Joe Musgrove
Musgrove stayed healthy for all of 2021, leading to a career-best in ERA (3.18), WHIP (1.081), BAA (.213), strikeouts (203), and innings pitched (181.1). He allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 32 games. Musgrove had a 2.22 ERA, .171 BAA, and 103 strikeouts over his first 85 innings. He ended the year with a 4.02 ERA, .248 BAA, and 100 strikeouts over his final 96.1 innings.
In 2022, Musgrove went 8-0 over his first 12 starts with a 1.59 ERA, .196 BAA, and 81 strikeouts over 79 innings. From June 23rd to August 4th, he had four poor showings over seven starts, leading to a 5.71 ERA, seven home runs, and 39 strikeouts over 41 innings. His arm looked sharped over his final 61 innings (2.80 ERA and 64 strikeouts) despite allowing 10 more home runs.
Last year, Musgrove started the season on the injured list for the first three weeks with a top issue. Other than a poor showing on April 29th (seven runs, seven baserunners, and three home runs over 3.1 innings), he kept San Diego in the game over his 16 starts, highlighted by his final 12 matchups (9-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 72 strikeouts over 73.1 innings). His season ended in late July with a sore right shoulder that didn’t require surgery. Despite his winning stats, right-handed batters hit .281 with six home runs over 171 at-bats.
His average fastball (93.1) was in a similar range as his last four seasons. Musgrove had the most success with curveball (.198 BAA) and four-seamer (.205 BAA). He lost the feel for his cutter (.306 BAA), and the rest of his pitches offered league-average value (slider – .268 BAA, changeup – .267 BAA, and sinker – .267 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Musgrove went 31-19 over his last 79 games with a 3.05 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, and 484 strikeouts over 459.2 innings. The direction of his arm and stuff vs. right-handed batters added to his shoulder issue, suggest that 2024 may not go as smoothly. His ADP (89) is about 10 spots higher than in 2022. His spring training stats could be a tell of his direction this year. Musgrove struggled over his first two appearances in spring training (eight runs, five hits, and two walks over 1.2 innings with no strikeouts). I sense he is a fade in 2024.
SP Yu Darvish
Darvish fell into the underachieving front-end ace bucket in 2021. His regression in ERA (4.22) came from repeated failure with home runs allowed (1.5 per nine). Over the final three months, he allowed two runs or fewer in only five of his 14 starts, leading to a disastrous run (6.65 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, and 18 home runs over 70.1 innings). Darvish missed some time in August with a back injury. The Padres placed him on the injured list late in September with a hip issue. Darvish had most of his failure on the road (2-7 with a 5.54 ERA, 1.323 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over 65 innings).
His 2022 season started with three poor showings (19 runs, 29 baserunners, and three home runs over 15 innings), leading to a 4.03 ERA and 48 strikeouts over 60.1 innings. Over his final 134.1 innings, Darvish posted a 2.68 ERA, 0.886 WHIP, and 149 strikeouts, but he did allow 17 home runs.
The disaster dump for Darvish happened again last year. His season was somewhat on track over his first nine games (3.67 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, .227 BAA, and 57 strikeouts over 54.0 innings), but the bad outweighed the good by a wide margin over his final 15 appearances (5.14 ERA, 1.401 WHIP, 11 home runs, and 84 strikeouts over 82.1 innings). Over this span, he allowed four runs or more in eight starts. His season ended in late August with a right elbow issue (bone spur).
His average fastball (94.8) was in a range with his previous eight seasons. Darvish continues to throw his slider as his top usage pitch (36.8%), with a sharp decline in value (.328 BAA – .258 over the two previous seasons). He has success with his curveball (.145 BAA), cutter (.196 BAA), and split-finger (.170 BAA). His sinker (.295 BAA) and four-seamer (.260 BAA) had a step back in success. Lefties (.271 with 10 home runs over 280 at-bats) were an issue.
Fantasy Outlook: His elbow issue is a significant obstacle that wasn’t addressed in the offseason. The last three times that Darvish had an ERA higher than 4.00, he pitched much better the following year. His ADP (185) is well below 2022 (77). The direction of his slider is enough for me to stay miles away from him. Darvish looked sharp in his first spring training game (no runs over two innings with no walks and three strikeouts). There is a delicate balance between value and disaster for pitchers, so tread carefully with an eye on the velocity and movement of his pitches in March.
SP Michael King
King flashed in 2018 over three levels in the minors (11-5 with a 1.79 ERA and 152 strikeouts over 161.1 innings). A right elbow injury the following season led to a poor 2019 season (5.48 ERA over 46 innings with 44 strikeouts).
From 2020 to 2022, New York pitched him out of the bullpen with developing success, highlighted by 2022 (2.29 ERA over 51 innings with 66 strikeouts and 16 holds). Unfortunately, his season ended in July due to an elbow injury that required surgery while avoiding a TJ issue.
King threw the ball well over his first 19 appearances last season, leading to a 1.65 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, .207 BAA, and 38 strikeouts over 32.2 innings. He allowed a run or more in 10 of his next 22 games (4.81 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, six home runs, and 41 strikeouts over 33.2 innings). New York started to stretch him out in late August. King turned into a stud over seven starts (four runs, 34 baserunners, and 47 strikeouts over 34.1 innings) with no home runs allowed. His season ended with a subpar showing (four runs, eight baserunners, and three home runs over four innings).
His average fastball (94.9) was down more than one mph. King earned an edge with his four-seamer (.198 BAA) and changeup (.111 BAA). The regression of his slider (.259 BAA with five home runs – .121 in 2022) could be a red flag when tying it to his previous right elbow issue. His sinker (.271 BAA) was no longer an asset.
Fantasy Outlook: King gets drafted this year as though he belongs in the conversation with the top 45 starting pitchers in the game despite only pitching five innings or more four times in 2023. The Yankees sold him at a high point, suggesting that King will be a failed starting investment for the Padres and the fantasy market. He looks closer to TJ surgery than making 30 starts. His ADP (136) is much too high for his profile. On the flip side, King could handle a closing role.
SP Jhony Brito
From 2019 to 2022 in the minors, Brito went 24-15 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, and 288 strikeouts over 330.0 innings while pitching between A, High A, AA, and AAA. Last year, he struggled over his seven starts at AAA (22 runs, 56 baserunners, and eight home runs over 36.1 innings with 33 strikeouts).
Brito made the Yankees’ starting rotation out of spring training, but he had too many bad days over his first 10 starts (5.58 ERA, 1.488 WHIP, and seven home runs over 40.1 innings). After his struggles at AAA and six more games with New York (14 runs, 29 baserunners, and six home runs over 24.1 innings), Brito found his stride over nine games (1.40 ERA and 24 strikeouts over 25.2 innings).
His average fastball (95.9) offered plus velocity. He pitched well with his slider (.245 BAA, four-seamer – .167 BAA, and changeup – .228 BAA). Brito battled his sinker (.280 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Brito won’t get drafted over the first 500 picks this fantasy season. He has the foundation of pitches to make the Padres starting rotation out of spring training. Home runs were a problem last year, and his command faltered at AAA. The change to San Diego should help his learning curve in the majors. Brito needs one swing-and-miss breaking pitch to reach a higher level. I’m interested in him at the right price, and I’ll follow his progress in spring training and early in the year.
SP Randy Vasquez
Vasquez pitched well over his five seasons in the minors. He went 18-21 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.253 WHIP, and 427 strikeouts over 388.0 innings. His arm stalled at AAA (4.59 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, and 96 strikeouts over 80.1 innings) in 2023 due to a weaker walk rate (4.5).
New York gave him 11 games of work in the majors last year, where Vasquez pitched in a starting and relief role. His ERA (2.87) graded well, considering his battle with home runs (1.2 per nine) and his walk rate (4.3). He pitched at the highest level over three spot starts (1.17 ERA, seven walks, and 10 strikeouts over 15.1 innings) in May, June, and July.
His average fastball (94.6) beat the league average. Vasquez had the most success with his four-seamer (.189 BAA) and changeup (.167 BAA). He must improve the value of his sinker (.325 BAA) and cutter (.273 BAA). His slider (.252 BAA) was a league-average pitch.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on the structure of the backend of the Padres’ starting rotation, Vasquez may win a starting job with success in spring training. Over two appearances in February, he allowed one run over five innings with six strikeouts. His walk rate invites risk, putting him in the free-agent pool in all formats.
SP Drew Thorpe
After a big final year in college (10-1 with a 2.32 ERA and 149 strikeouts over 104.2 innings), the Yankees drafted Thorpe in the second round in the 2022 June Amateur Draft. He kicked the door down at High A (10-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 138 strikeouts over 109.0 innings), followed by success over five starts at AA (4-0 with a 1.48 ERA, five walks, and 44 strikeouts over 30.1 innings).
His fastball sat in the low 90s while offering an electric changeup and winning slider. Thorpe brings elite command plus two other low-volume pitches (cutter and curveball).
Fantasy Outlook: San Diego should start him out at AAA this year, putting him a phone call away from the majors. With 139.1 innings on his resume from 2023, he looks poised to help the Padres in some way this year. His ADP (514) over the last two weeks in the NFBC suggests Thorpe is an overlooked backend flier this draft season. I view him on a similar path as Brandon Pfaadt last year, but he does a much better job keeping the ball in the yard. Over his first two games this spring training, Thorpe pitched three shutout innings with five strikeouts.
SP Dylan Lesko
The Padres drafted Lesko out of high school with the 15th overall selection in the 2022 MLB June Amateur Draft. In his first season in the minors, he went 1-5 with a 5.45 ERA, 1.545 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts over 33.0 innings. San Diego pitched him at three levels (RK, A, and High A) of the minors. Lesko had TJ surgery in 2022 before the draft.
He brings a high 90s fastball, supported by a plus changeup. His curveball is loaded with movement and potential, but Lesko must throw it for more strikes.
Fantasy Outlook: The Padres will give him as much as he can handle in his sophomore season in the minors. His rise up their system starts with better command. Lesko will have an innings cap in 2024.
Bullpen
CL Yuki Matsui
Matsui started his professional career in Japan at age 18 in 2014. Over his first two years, he made most of his appearance as a starter. He has a 29-47 record over 704.0 innings with 941 strikeouts and 236 saves. Matsui hasn’t pitched more than 60.0 innings since 2020. His strikeout rate (12.0) has been an edge every year. In 2023, he had the lowest walk rate (2.0) of his career. He’s allowed 237 fewer hits than innings pitched.
His fastball sits in the low 90s while working off a split-finger pitch as his second-best offering. Matsui will also mix in a slider and a show-me curveball.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on his ADP (273) and closing experience in Japan, he should be an attractive option for saves this year, even if he doesn’t get a full-time closing role. In his first appearance in spring training, Matsui pitched a clean shutout inning with three strikeouts. His stuff is challenging to hit, leading to help in ERA and WHIP. The key to value in strikeouts and saves is more appearances.
RP Robert Suarez
Suarez pitched well over six seasons in Japan (2.59 ERA and 324 strikeouts over 330.2 innings) after putting his name on their map in 2015 (5-0 with a 1.71 ERA, 48 strikeouts, and 23 saves over 47.1 innings) while pitching in Mexico. His best two seasons overseas came in 2020 and 2021 when he posted a 1.65 ERA over 114.2 innings with 108 strikeouts and 67 saves.
In his first year with the Padres, Suarez handled himself well (2.27 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 47.2 innings) despite a much higher walk rate (4.0). He missed two months with a right knee injury that required surgery. San Diego saw enough in his arm to give Suarez $46 million in November for five seasons.
Last year, he missed three and a half months with a right elbow injury. Suarez had one disaster showing (five runs and five baserunners over two-thirds of an inning) over his 27 appearances in 2023. Over his other 27.0 innings, he allowed eight runs and 20 baserunners with 23 strikeouts.
His average fastball (97.8) continued to have elite velocity and success (four-seamer – .188 BAA and sinker – .175 BAA). Suarez threw a changeup (.125 BAA) as his best pitch while also mixing in a cutter and slider.
Fantasy Outlook: Over his two seasons with the Padres, he went 9-4 with a 2.99 ERA, 85 strikeouts, and one save over 75.1 innings. Suarez’s walk rate (3.7) isn’t ideal, and Suarez had a pullback in his strikeout rate (7.8) last season. His ADP (218) remains ahead of Yuki Matsui despite no confirmation from San Diego’s manager on how the Padres will handle saves in 2024. His lengthy elbow issue last season can’t be overlooked, and he does have saves on his resume in Japan. Suarez struggled in his first two appearances this spring (four runs and six baserunners over 1.1 innings with two strikeouts).
RP Woo Suk Go
San Diego brought in a third closing option for the 2024 baseball season. Over seven years in Korea, Go had a 19-26 record with a 3.18 ERA, 401 strikeouts, and 139 saves over 368.1 innings. His best season came in 2022 when he posted a 1.48 ERA, 80 strikeouts, and 42 saves over 60.2 innings. His walk rate (4.5) was a five-year high last season. He missed time in 2023 with a back issue.
His fastball sits in the mid-90s while working off a cutter as his second-best offering. Go will mix in a curveball and a show-me slider.
Fantasy Outlook: His experience finishing games should be a plus for the Padres, and he also adds length to their bullpen. Go won’t get drafted in redraft formats based on his ADP (566) in the high-stakes market. His fastball has enough life to win in the majors, but he must throw more strikes to earn saves chances.
This 2024 San Diego Padres Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
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