Week 17 NFL Quarterback Report
Joe “Waiver Wire” Flacco was the best quarterback in the land in Week 17 (30.50 fantasy points), thanks to a career game by Amari Cooper (11/265/2). The runner-up prize went to Derek Carr (29.15), followed by Josh Allen (28.35), Jalen Hurts (27.45), and Justin Fields (27.20). Twelve other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 26.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five players after 16 weeks by scoring average:
- Josh Allen (26.95)
- Jalen Hurts (26.09)
- Dak Prescott (23.03)
- Lamar Jackson (22.76)
- Brock Purdy (22.11)
Using our Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 16 NFL Quarterback Report.
Top Tier Options
Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)
Over the past six weeks, Hurts has one passing touchdown or fewer in five starts. He held value by his success in the run game (59/260/8). His completion rate (60.3%) over this span is well below his first nine games (68.9%). Despite his direction, Hurts has already set career highs in completions (327), passing attempts (499), and combined touchdowns (35). When at his best, he scored more than 30 fantasy points in three matchups (31.35, 31.55, and 38.50).
The Cardinals rank 25th in quarterback defense (21.94). Only the Giants (380/3) scored more than 30.00 fantasy points. The Rams (229/4) and 49ers (262/4) delivered the most success in touchdowns over the past four weeks. Quarterbacks rushed for 285 yards and five touchdowns on 61 carries. Five offenses rushed for more than 175 yards.
The Eagles played better offensively in Week 16 (471 combined yards with three touchdowns, four field goals, and 33 points), pointing to success in scoring this week. I sense I have Hurts underprojected this week as he looks poised to have a 4X floor in this upside matchup.
Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,700/FD – $7,900)
Despite an active role in the run game (142/786/5), Jackosn hasn’t had a rushing touchdown over his last eight contests. Also, for only the second time in his career, he’ll make his 16th start in a season. Jackson is on pace to set career highs in completions (328), pass attempts (494), and passing yards (3,805).
However, on the downside, he averages only 1.27 passing touchdowns per game. Three of his four games with more than 30.00 fantasy points came at home (31.20, 38.45, and 35.80). In 2022, Jackson had a dominating game (437/4) in Baltimore against the Dolphins.
Miami is league average against quarterbacks (18.87 FPPG), with only two teams (BUF – 334/5 and PHI – 300/3) scoring more than 24.00 fantasy points. They play well vs. the run (365/1,365/13 – 3.7 yards per rush). Quarterbacks rushed for 203 yards and four scores on 58 carries. Additionally, the Dolphins haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end over the past eight matchups.
Jackson is trending upward over his last five starts (23.34 FPPG in DraftKings scoring). Miami should score in this matchup, creating a high-scoring battle. Also, this matchup has the third-highest over/under (47) on the main slate on Sunday. Baltimore would like to run the ball well and keep the Dolphins’ offense off the field. Jackson needs about 32.00 fantasy points to pay off.
Mid-Tier Options
Justin Fields, CHI (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,200)
Over the past three weeks, Fields posted a low completion rate in each matchup (57.6, 47.5, and 55.60 while gaining only 5.6 yards per pass attempt. He has one passing score or fewer in nine of his 11 starts. Since returning from his thumb injury, Fields has been more active in the run game (18/104, 12/59, 12/58/1, 7/30, and 9/97/1). His best two showings came in Week 4 (360/4) and Week 5 (339/4). Last year, Fields had 238 combined yards with two touchdowns against Atlanta.
The Falcons sit 17th defending quarterbacks (19.04 FPPG). Their defense played much better in points allowed in four (15, 8, 9, and 10) of their last five matchups, leading to only four touchdowns allowed over this span. Atlanta has struggled with quarterbacks in the run game (66/308/5). Their defense gave up only two passing scores over the last five weeks. The Titans (253/4) and Vikings (313/3) had the most success with their quarterbacks.
The Bears come into this matchup with Cole Kmet battling a knee issue, and DJ Moore continues to be limited with a balky ankle. Fields and the Bears’ offense isn’t top-form, and this matchup points to many runs by both teams. More info about Chicago’s top two receiving options is needed before riding the Bears’ quarterback in Week 17.
Brock Purdy, SF (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,500)
Just when Purdy was trending toward an MVP award, and the 49ers were the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl, their rising quarterback tossed four interceptions while leaving with a neck issue in the fourth quarter. San Francisco expects him to play on Sunday. Despite a down game (255/0), Purdy still gained 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Over his previous six starts, he completed 71.9% of his passes with 1,793 yards, 17 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Purdy has four games (28.60, 30.05, 32.60, and 28.10) with at least four times his current salary at DraftKings.
Washington has the worst defense against quarterbacks (24.13 FPPG) and the 31st-ranked defense vs. wideouts (45.09 FPPG). Four quarterbacks (DEN – 364/3, CHI – 339/4, PHI – 325/4), and DAL – 341/4) scored more than 30.00 fantasy points. Over the past five games, the Commanders gave up 23 touchdowns and eight field goals over 58 possessions, leading to 31, 45, 45, 28, and 30 points. Quarterbacks have 33 passing scores, with wide receivers gaining 14.9 yards per pass attempt.
Finally, the 49ers are 13.5 favorites on the road vs. a team that struggled recently to move the ball and score. Purdy will have plenty of chances in the passing game, leading to a bounce-back game. His downside risk comes from Christian McCaffrey stealing the offensive show on the ground.
Low-Value Option
Nick Mullens, MIN (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,000)
In his two starts for the Vikings, Mullens delivered two games with more than 20.00 fantasy points (22.15 and 24.65), which works well for his lowered-tiered salary. He finished with a league-high 411 passing yards in Week 16, but Mullens tossed four balls to the other team. Fifteen of his 57 completions gained at least 20 yards (9.7 yards per pass attempt). On the downside, the Vikings lost T.J. Hockenson for the season.
Green Bay ranks 18th against quarterbacks (19.07 FPPG), with most of their struggles coming over the past five weeks (DET – 341/2, TB – 379/4, and CAR – 329/2). Over their three down games, wide receivers succeeded in each matchup (18/251/, 17/285/2, and 14/219/2). Earlier in the season, Kirk Cousins passed for 297 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Packers.
Minnesota needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt, so Mullens does have some job loss risk if he turns the ball over in this matchup. Justin Jefferson has 13 catches for 225 yards and one score on 20 targets, with Mullens behind center. The Vikings expect Jordan Addison to play this week, giving Minnesota enough receiving depth to support a winning day by their passing attack.
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