Week 16 DFS: Tight End Report
Sam LaPorta (5/56/5) posted his second impact game over the past three weeks, giving him the top tight end fantasy score in Week 13 (29.00) and Week 15 (28.60). David Njoku (10/104/1) finished with second place prize for the second consecutive week, followed by Trey McBride (10/102). Here are the top five tight ends by scoring average after 15 weeks:
- T.J. Hockenson (15.01)
- Travis Kelce (14.74)
- Sam LaPorta (14.66)
- Evan Engram (12.71)
- George Kittle (12.69)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 15 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 16 DFS: QB Report, RB Report, and WR Report.
Top Tier Options
T.J Hockenson, MIN (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,800)
Over the past four games, the quarterback jockey led to Hockenson having a step back in value compared to his play with Kirk Cousins. From Week 11 to Week 15, he averaged seven targets and 12.25 fantasy points in PPR formats. Over his first 10 starts, Hockenson had a floor of seven catches in six starts, leading to four high-value outputs (7/66/2, 11/86, 16/88/1, and 11/134/1). The switch to Nick Mullens at quarterback invites more pass attempts and completions for the Vikings’ offense. In addition, Minnesota should score more points with Justin Jefferson back in the starting lineup. In 2022, Hockenson had nine catches for 85 yards and a touchdown vs. the Lions in two games.
Detroit struggled with tight ends in four contests (SEA – 9/132, ATL – 11/88, BAL – 4/63/2, and CHI – 6/70/1). They rank 23rd in tight end defense (66/691/7). Over their other 10 games, the Lions played eight teams (KC – no Travis Kelce, GB twice, CAR, TB, LV, NO, and DEN) with weakness at tight end.
The receiving shine for Minnesota in this matchup will be Justin Jefferson, as well as the attention by their defensive game plan. Subsequently, Hockenson will be active in this game, giving him a chance to post a 20+ fantasy point game.
Trey McBride, ARI (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,000)
McBride has 51 catches for 542 yards and two touchdowns on 64 targets since taking over the starting tight end job for the Cardinals. His floor continues to be high at home (10/95/1, 8/131, 7/60, and 10/102) over this span, with his other winning day coming in Week 13 (8/89/1) in Pittsburgh. McBride averaged nine targets over his last seven starts.
Chicago fell to 30th vs. tight ends (88/723/8 on 116 targets) after getting abused by Browns’ tight ends (11/112/1). Four other teams (KC – 8/78/1, WAS – 12/105/1, LAC – 5/52/2, and NO – 10/65/2) had success with their tight ends. On the positive side, the Bears did defend Sam LaPorta (3/18 and 2/23) well.
McBride has an excellent opportunity while being Kyler Murray’s only reliable target. His price point is no longer a layup, meaning a touchdown is now needed to fill his salary bucket.
Second Tier Options
David Njoku, CLE (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,600)
Over his last eight games, Njoku has 45 catches for 488 yards and five touchdowns on 75 targets. His stock pushed even higher over his previous two starts (6/91/2 and 10/104/1) at home with Joe Flacco behind center. His only playable game (4/77/1) on the road came in Week 8. Njoku averages 10.55 fantasy points away from home in DraftKings scoring.
Houston improved to 28th in tight end defense (89/900/4 on 122 targets) after holding two of their last three opponents to short games (DEN – 1/6 and TEN – 3/36). They haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end over their last six matchups. The Colts (6/80/1), Falcons (14/176), Bucs (6/70/2), and Jaguars (8/104) had the most success.
A road matchup isn’t ideal for Njoku, considering his resume is much better in Cleveland. The Texans will give up catches and yards to tight ends, and Joe Flacco will get him the ball. However, on the downside, his salary now requires 21+ fantasy points to pay off.
Evan Engram, JAC (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,300)
After two big games (9/82/1 and 11/95/2), Engram failed to make an impact vs. the Ravens (4/28). He has seven targets or more in 11 of his 14 starts, leading to him setting a career-high in catches (88). On the downside, Engram gains only 8.3 yards per catch. The injury to Zay Jones points to more targets going to him down the stretch.
Tampa Bay has issues defending tight ends in three (HOU – 10/130/1, SF – 8/89/1, and ATL – 9/99/1) of their previous six matchups. They fell to 27th vs. tight ends (79/840/5 on 117 targets) while allowing all five of their touchdowns over the past seven games.
Engram operates as the Jaguars’ top receiver in fantasy points (177.90) in PPR formats. He didn’t score over his first 11 starts, which is a concern for his higher salary. However, this matchup points to a high-floor game.
Value Option
Cole Kmet, CHI (DK – $4,400/FD – $6,200)
Kmet can’t match the top tight ends in the game in targets (5.8 per game) due to the Bears averaging only 31.3 passes. His top two games (7/85/2 and 6/55/2) came from his ability to score. On the downside, he scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in seven of his 14 games. Kmet has a plus catch rate (81.4), but he gains only 8.7 yards per catch.
Arizona has the four-best defense against tight ends (50/533/5 on 76 targets), with only the Rams scoring more than 20.00 fantasy points (6/35/2). All five of their touchdowns allowed came over their last seven contests. Their opponent’s tight ends have the second-lowest output on the year.
Also, the Bears scored more than two touchdowns only once over their past seven matchups, leaving a small window to deliver an impact game. Kmet has sneaky upside while ranking seventh in tight end scoring (159.30 fantasy points) in PPR formats. His drawing card is his lower salary.
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