Week 16 NFL Quarterback Report
Last week, 16 quarterbacks scored at least 20.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Baker Mayfield (34.05 fantasy points) had centerstage on the podium in Week 15, followed by Jared Goff (33.90) and Aidan O’Connell (28.40). Dak Prescott (8.40) was the bust of the week, crushing fantasy teams looking to win league and overall championships. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 15 weeks:
- Josh Allen (26.85)
- Jalen Hurts (26.00)
- Dak Prescott (23.09)
- Brock Purdy (23.05)
- Lamar Jackson (22.60)
Using our Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 16 NFL Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Dak Prescott, DAL (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,500)
With three Monday games and two matchups played on Saturday, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes are off the main state on Sunday. The Bills dominated the time of possession vs. Dallas, thanks to their best success running the ball (49/266/3) in years. Prescott posted his worst game (134/0) passing the ball since Week 1 (143/0). Over his seven road starts, he averaged 233 combined yards with only nine touchdowns and five interceptions. His only playable game away from Dallas came vs. the Eagles (388/3).
Miami moved to 16th defending quarterbacks (18.64 FPPG) after holding the Jets to 2.80 fantasy points in Week 14. Eight other quarterbacks scored fewer than 20.00 fantasy while having their most significant failure in two matchups (BUF – 334/4 and PHI – 300/3). The Dolphins held opponents to fewer than 190 yards passing in five of their past seven games. Only one team has more than two passing touchdowns.
Prescott is one of the top projected quarterbacks on the main slate on Sunday. But his play on the road doesn’t support his current salary. If Miami plays from the lead with Tyreek Hill back in the starting lineup, Dallas will need to throw the ball to win. Not ideal, but I can’t dismiss a bounce-back game.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,000)
Despite having two top 10 wideouts (Tyreek Hill – 97/1,542/12 and Jaylen Waddle – 71/064/4), Tagovailoa ranks 12th in quarterback scoring (20.49 FPPG). His best fantasy value came in Week 1 (33.80) and Week 3 (31.45) while failing to pass for more than 300 yards in his last four starts, partly due to averaging only 27.75 passes. Miami scored nine times on the ground over this span. Despite the appearance of weakness, the Dolphins gain 8.6 yards per pass attempt.
Dallas sits 11th in quarterback defense (17.95 FPPG). They only have three sacks over the past three weeks (40 on the season). Their defense failed in four games (28, 42, 35, and 31) in points allowed, with two teams posting impact passing games (SF – 2534/4 and SEA – 334/3). Quarterbacks average 29.2 passes per game.
The key to Tagovailoa is Tyreek Hill playing. Miami will try to control the game with the run. But the Dolphins have the tools to post an impact passing game. More of a gamble due to him being part of a high-priced stack.
Mid-Tier Options
Justin Fields, CHI (DK – $7,100/FD – $8,300)
Since returning from his thumb injury, Fields averaged 257 combined yards with only four touchdowns. He has been more active running the ball (18/104, 12/59, 12/58/1, and 7/30) while playing three games on the road. When at his best, Fields posted to impact fantasy games (33.25 and 35.80) vs. the Broncos and Washington. His yards per pass attempt (6.7) is at a career-low level.
The Cardinals slipped 25th vs. quarterbacks (21.56 FPPG). Six teams scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, with the Giants (380/4), Bengals (324/3), Rams (231/4), and 49ers (260/4) having the most success in touchdowns. The Cardinals don’t have a sack in their last three games while having some risk defending quarterbacks in the run game (52/188/4).
Fields has an excellent matchup with an expected floor of three touchdowns, as long as the Bears score in close with their running backs. He’s won me the most money in the daily games, so I’ll have a few bucks ticketed for him on Sunday.
Jared Goff, DET (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,800)
After back-to-back dull games (213/2 and 161/1), Goff roasted the Broncos’ secondary for five touchdowns and 278 passing yards. He only has two other showings (323/3 and 236/3) with more than two passing scores. Through 14 games, with an even split of home and away matchups, Goff has 19 touchdowns in Detroit and only eight on the road. In 2022, he had 12 completions that gained at least 40 yards, but only six this season. Goff passed for 607 yards with four touchdowns in two games vs. the Vikings last year.
Minnesota ranks 18th in quarterback defense (18.69 FPPG). Eight of their last nine opponents scored fewer than 20.00 fantasy points. Two teams (LAC – 454/4 and CIN – 324/2) passed for more than 300 yards. The Vikings want to blitz the quarterback, inviting some big plays at times. Only one offense (Chargers – 32/415/2) gained more than 200 yards from their wideouts.
Goff has a one-game winning streak, but he has been losing daily game investment on the road 71% of the time in 2023, with no impact outcomes. His matchup isn’t ideal, but Goff does have the receiving weapons to gain 300 yards with three touchdowns if game flow forces the Lions to throw.
Low-Value Option
Nick Mullens, MIN (DK – $5,300/FD – $7,000)
In his first start for the Vikings, Mullens passed for 300 yards with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, giving a 4X outcome for his DraftKings salary. He gained an impressive 9.2 yards per pass attempt, with strength in his completion rate (78.8). Mullens is a pocket passer in the realm of Kirk Cousins, inviting 40+ passes if game flow breaks right.
Before last week, the Lions’ defense allowed more than 25 points in six of their seven previous matchups, leading to 23 touchdowns and 10 field goals on their down days. Three teams (SEA – 328/2, BAL – 357/3, and LAC – 323/4) passed for 300 yards. Their defense has 30 sacks (nine over the past six weeks).
The combination of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson gives Mullens high-level receiving options. Minnesota also found their run game in Week 15 (30/143/1) after the change to Ty Chandler. The Vikings want to throw the ball, but they haven’t delivered more than two passing scores since Week 3 when Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson were on the field. Mullens has a favorable salary, with a reasonable chance at 300 yards with two touchdowns.
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