Week 15 NFL Quarterback Report
Lamar Jackson (35.80) led the league in fantasy points in Week 15, lifting him to fourth in quarterback scoring (295.10). Desmond Ridder (29.85) posted his best game of the season, placing him second for the week, followed by Jake Browning (27.45) and Justin Fields (26.95). Eleven other quarterbacks scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 14 weeks:
- Josh Allen (27.60)
- Jalen Allen (26.05)
- Dak Prescott (24.22)
- Lamar Jackson (22.70)
- Brock Purdy (22.66)
Using our Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 15 NFL Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,800) — QUESTIONABLE w ILLNESS
Our friend Jason Wood said it well: “There’s little precedent for someone missing a game due to flu-like symptoms outside of when the NFL was enforcing strict Covid protocols. I would be stunned if Hurts missed the game, and I don’t think it would materially impact his performance.
That leaves people with two options — pick up Lock or Mariota. Both should be widely available because it’s the playoffs, and few playoff teams were starting Geno Smith or need a QB like Lock (who was already projected to start on many sites, ours included).
If, for some reason, someone has a quality QB2 in lieu of Hurts, I would strongly consider it, provided they’re not a massive underdog in their playoff matchup.
My take is I think Hurts plays. Star QBs on a top team that’s reeling don’t sit out games on Monday Night in Week 15. Never forget the NFL is a television show. And nothing sells like hope and drama. I expect wall-to-wall Michael Jordan Flu Game hype up till game time.
If I could get Mariota or Lock as pivots, I roll with Hurts unless I had a super strong backup option. If had a stellar backup QB available like Allen, Jackson, Prescott, Mahomes, Purdy or Stafford, I’d consider them as they’re more safe in that you feel certain they’ll play.
But my gut feel is Hurts is not sitting out Monday Night Football and if you can back him up with Mariota or Lock I think you’re ok.”
The Eagles completed a challenging five-game stretch (DAL, @KC, BUF, SF, and @DAL), where they went 3-2. Over this span, Hurts averaged 210 passing yards with six touchdowns. He helped his floor with success in the run game (48/180/6). His best value in fantasy points came in Week 4 (31.35), Week 8 (31.55), and Week 12 (38.50). When at his best, Hurts attempted more than 35 passes (six times).
The Seahawks rank 22nd defending quarterbacks (20.75 FPPG), with one team scoring more than 30.00 fantasy points (DAL – 322/3). Five teams (LAR – 334/0, DET – 323/3, CAR – 361/2, WAS – 312/3, and SF – 368/2) passed for more than 300 yards. Their defense has risk at times vs. running quarterbacks (NYG – 10/66, ARI – 7/43/1, and BAL – 14/68). In addition, running backs scored 16 of their 36 offensive touchdowns allowed. Seattle’s defense gave up 13 touchdowns and three field goals over 35 possessions by their opponents.
The Eagles have risk defending the pass, pointing to a competitive game on the scoreboard. Hurts has a winnable matchup, and Philadelphia needs to regain the bounce in their offense after being held to 32 points over the past two weeks.
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)
If the Bills can win at home vs. the Cowboys, they have two favorable matchups vs. @LAC and NE over the following two weeks, putting them back in position to make the postseason. Allen has 10 rushing touchdowns over his last 11 games (63/331 – 5.3 YPC). Three (320/4, 359/2, and 324/2) of his four games with more than 300 yards passing came at home, leading to 30+ fantasy point outcomes (39.70, 32.35, and 33.30). He’s thrown an interception in nine consecutive matchups. Allen can’t reach a higher ceiling without Stefon Diggs breaking out of his four-game slump (3/34, 4/27, 6/74/1, and 4/24).
Dallas played five of their last seven games at home, where their offense has been lethal in scoring (279 points – 39.9 per game). Their defense held opponents to fewer than 18 points in eight matchups (five at home). After not allowing more than 255 passing yards over their first 10 games, the Commanders (300/0) and Seahawks (334/3) had success via the pass in Week 12 and Week 13. Their defense can have issues with quarterbacks rushing the ball (63/298/2).
Ultimately, the ceiling of Allen requires the Cowboys to push Buffalo on the scoreboard, and the weather has to cooperate. Dallas has the 11th-best defense vs. quarterbacks (18.02 FPPG), putting the Bills star quarterback in the against-the-grain column in Week 15.
Mid-Tier Options
Brock Purdy, SF (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,400)
The 49ers’ passing attack has been sensational over the past seven contests, leading to Purdy completing 70% of his passes or more in each matchup while gaining an incredible 11.0 yards per pass attempt. Over this span, San Francisco averaged only 28 passes but 326 combined yards with 15 touchdowns. In Week 4, Purdy completed 20 of his 21 passes against the Cardinals for 283 yards and one score. He has two games (30.05 and 32.60) with more than 30.00 fantasy points.
Arizona sits 23rd defending quarterbacks (20.98 FPPG), with only one team (NYG – 380/3) scoring more than 30.00 fantasy points. They’ve allowed more than 300 yards passing in two other matchups (CIN – 317/3 and HOU – 338/2), while the Rams has the most success in passing touchdowns (229/4). The Cardinals allowed more than 30 points in five games (four at home). On the downside, running backs have 18 touchdowns vs. Arizona.
The 49ers scored 21 touchdowns over their last five games, averaging 32.4 points. San Francisco has a balanced offense, and this matchup does favor Christian McCaffrey, who posted a monster game vs. the Cardinals in Week 4 (177 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches). The 49ers have four elite passing options and rinse and repeat looks to be the outlook for Purdy in this matchup.
Matthew Stafford, LAR (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,200)
Since the return of Kyren Williams in Week 12, Stafford posted his best three games of the year in touchdowns (229/4, 279/3, and 294/3) despite weakness in his completion rate over his last two starts (59.5 and 56.1). In his defense, the Ravens and Browns ranked third and fourth against quarterbacks. His three games (334/0, 307/1, and 319/1) with more than 300 yards passing came over the first three weeks.
Washington has the second-worst defense (25.09 FPPG) vs. quarterbacks, with all but two teams scoring more than 20.00 fantasy points. Four teams (DEN – 364/3, CHI – 339/4, PHI – 325/4, and DAL – 341/4) posted more than 30.00 fantasy points. The Commanders allow 8.1 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 30 touchdowns. Their defense gave up 16 touchdowns and three field goals over their last three matchups.
With Cooper Kupp climbing off the mat in Week 14 (8/115/1), Stafford and the Rams’ receiving options should be popular this week. Kyren Williams (62/345/1 with 12 catches for 84 yards and two touchdowns) could be his most significant thorn if LA scores in close on the ground. Conversely, Williams may find paydirt via a catch, helping Stafford’s ceiling. The DFS winner in Week 15 should have one or more pieces of the Rams’ offense. My first team build starts with Stafford and Kupp.
Low-Value Options
Joe Flacco, CLE (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,100)
Over his first two starts with the Browns, Flacco averaged 44.5 passes, leading 565 yards and five touchdowns. On the downside, he gained only 6.3 yards per pass attempt, with weakness in his completion rate (55.1). Cleveland only had nine passing scores over their first 11 matchups. The regression of quarterback play and lack of success running the ball over the past month led to the Browns throwing the ball 174 times over their previous four games.
Chicago improved to 18th in quarterback defense (19.18 FPPG) after allowing fewer than 20.00 fantasy points in seven of their last eight matchups. The Bears play well vs. the run (299/1,088/7 – 3.6 yards per rush). Three teams (TB – 317/1, KC – 303/3, and WAS – 388/2) passed for more than 300 yards. Chicago has weakness in their pass rush (21 sacks), helping five offenses to score three passing touchdowns.
Flacco gets an extra check mark for playing at home, but the Browns would like to have more success running the ball. Cleveland is now a dink-and-dunk offense, helping their receivers in catches and receiving yards. I can’t rule out 250 yards with two scores, putting Flacco in range to reach his salary bucket. The Bears can surprise offensively, which is needed for Cleveland to air out the ball in this game.
Will Levis, TEN (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,800)
The Titans had another dull passing game going vs. the Dolphins before a couple of turnovers forced Tennessee to the air over the final two drives. Levis set a career-high in passing yards (327), but he only has four touchdowns over his last six starts. Over his previous four games, he averaged only 29 passes and 192 yards. His best showing (249/4) came in his first NFL start, leading to an impact game in fantasy points (29.00).
Houston has been in a tailspin defending quarterbacks over the past six games (21.65, 25.35, 24.80, 29.20, 20.70, and 23.25 fantasy points). They fell to 25th in quarterback defense (21.43 FPPG). They allow 7.9 yards per attempt, with six teams passing for more than 300 yards (JAC – 310/2, ATL – 351/1, CIN – 347/2, JAC – 364/0, and NYJ – 301/2).
The Texans can struggle with running backs (309/1,132/7 with 71 catches for 523 yards and two touchdowns) despite allowing only 3.7 yards per rush. Levis falls in the risk/reward category in the DFS market, but his resume doesn’t suggest a winning play. The direction of the Texans’ defense does suggest a 20-point floor in fantasy points.
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