Week 14 NFL Player Props
After our first cold streak of the season, we bounced back with a 5-2 record in Week 13. The money is flowing in and we are now 39-30 (+9.15 Units) on the 2023 season. Sports betting is all about riding the hot streaks and surviving the cold spells. Now that we’ve had another profitable week, let’s see if we can continue to ride the way and make some more cash in Week 14.
As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 14’s slate of NFL matchups. Unlike last week when every single one of the 32 teams was in action, two teams will get some rest on their bye weeks: the Washington Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals. That said, we still have 15 competitive matchups this week with only three games that have a spread of more than a touchdown.
Fantasy football players have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 13 NFL prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Mahomes has not seen his rushing yard prop line this high all season. In fact, he didn’t see a line this high last season either. Last week the line was 20.5 and the highest it’s been over the last two years was 27.5. So why is the line so high this week against a tough Buffalo Bills defense? Perhaps it is because Mahomes is having the best rushing campaign of his career (27.6 yards per game) and has even eclipsed this inflated line in three of 12 games. But it’s not like the Bills are especially vulnerable to quarterback rushing yards. Buffalo is allowing 19.3 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve only allowed one opposing quarterback to eclipse this line in 12 games this season.
That said, the one time the Bills allowed a quarterback to eclipse this line was last week when Jalen Hurts turned 14 carries into 65 rushing yards. But that stay is even misleading considering 27 of those yards came in overtime.
Mahomes will do Mahomesesque things in this battle between two AFC powerhouses but I expect the Chiefs to lean on the passing game, particularly with Isaiah Pacheco sidelined, Clyde Edwards-Helaire should get the start and just because Pacheco is out doesn’t mean Andy Reid is going to call designed quarterback runs this close to the end of the season when an injury to Mahomes would derail the Chiefs’ entire Super Bowl hopes.
The one scary thing about this prop is that in five starts against the Bills over his career (two in the postseason), Mahomes has tallied 192 rushing yards on 34 carries. However, I believe those stats are inflated because Mahomes is going to be more inclined to rush in playoff games when the Chiefs have nothing to lose. In a regular season game this far out from the postseason, I anticipate Andy Reid wanting to protect his All-Pro quarterback as much as possible.
The line is quite high due to Mahomes’ success against Buffalo but the Bills will keep him in check on the ground. Patrick Mahomes is not Jalen Hurts so don’t expect another 60+ yards from this quarterback on the ground. Patrick has proven that he is much more comfortable moving the chains with his arm rather than his legs. Take the UNDER.
Josh Allen OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Allen has compiled at least two passing touchdowns in seven of his last nine outings and will be looking to make it three in a row in a highly anticipated matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Over his career, Allen has averaged 2.7 passing touchdowns against the Chiefs and this game is pretty much a playoff game for the 6-6 Buffalo Bills. If the Bills have any chance at sneaking into the postseason, they will need to ride Allen’s arm and hopefully knock off the defending Super Bowl champs.
Kansas City’s improved defense was just shredded by Jordan Love last week and the Packers don’t have nearly the same caliber of weapons that the Bills do. Buffalo is coming off a bye week so they have had extra time to prepare for this pivotal matchup.
To be honest, it doesn’t matter who the opponent is; I would feel comfortable taking this prop no matter what. Allen is just that talented and with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dalton Kincaid, and more weapons in his arsenal, I think he’ll get the job done. The Bills may not win this game but they will make it competitive on the back of Josh Allen.
David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown (-105)
The odds are too good to pass up as this prop is -150 on some other sites but on FanDuel, bettors are getting a massive discount. Montgomery has scored 10 touchdowns this season and in eight of nine games this season so -105 simply seems too good to be true, especially given the fact that the Bears have allowed six rushing touchdowns and five receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs this season in 12 games.
The Lions are preparing for a matchup with their NFC North rivals, the Chicago Bears, who just so happen to be Montgomery’s former team. Call me a sucker for the revenge narrative but I expect Monty to sneak into the end zone at least once in this uneven matchup.
Since missing two contests in October with Jahmyr Gibbs filling in as the workhorse, Montgomery returned and has scored a touchdown in each of his previous four games (including against these same Bears back in mid-November). Fortunately for Monty, Dan Campbell likes to call his number when in the red zone.
Chicago is decent against the run but considering the Lions are favorites on the road where Jared Goff tends to struggle, Dan Campbell’s propensity to call Montgomery’s number near the goalline, the expected game flow, Monty’s recent form, and the fact that he’s going to be extra motivated to find the end zone against his former team, expect this bet to cash!
Zack Moss OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
With Jonathan Taylor ruled out for Week 14, Moss will be the workhorse against a Cincinnati Bengals team that just allowed Joe Mixon to have an explosion game despite their upset victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Bengals ranked 27th in the NFL in rushing defense and allow 133.9 rushing yards per game this season. And in three of Moss’ four games without JT on the field, he has surpassed this line three times.
| Opponent | Moss’ Production W/ Taylor Out |
| Week 2: Houston | 18 car, 88 yds, TD |
| Week 3: Baltimore | 30 car, 122 yds |
| Week 4: LA Rams | 18 car, 70 yds |
| Week 13: Tennessee | 19 car, 51 yds |
In those four contests, Moss is averaging 21.3 carries for 82.8 rushing yards. The Bengals have struggled against opposing running backs and the Colts are playing better than they have all season with a real shot at making the postseason.
Let’s take a look at how the Bengals have fared against opposing running backs over their last five contests.
It’s also important to note that Etienne didn’t hit his prop line because he was dealing with injuries and was highly questionable to even suit up for that game.
Moss will get the necessary workload to hit the over on his rushing yards prop in Week 14.
Davante Adams OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Aidan O’Connell and Adams have finally begun to establish a rapport over the last few games. Adams has eclipsed this line in three straight games. Over that span with O’Connell as the starter, Adams has seen a whopping 33 targets and has piled up 18 receptions for 241 yards and one score.
This week, the Raiders face a Vikings secondary that has allowed big passing receiving numbers to top wideouts throughout the season. Minnesota is currently allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
It’s also important to note that although it was with the Packers, Adams has dominated the Vikings. In his six contests against this franchise, he has topped 100 yards five times and has gained more than 150 yards twice. Those are monster numbers. Considering he used to be in the NFC North, it seems like Adams has learned a thing or two about how to find open space against Minnesota.
Considering Justin Jefferson is returning from his mid-season injury, the Raiders will need a go-to target to match Minnesota’s marches down the field. That is likely going to require a heavy dose of Davante Adams. If the Raiders fall behind early, they may have to abandon Josh Jacobs and the run which means even more targets for Adams. He should easily surpass this line. Take the Over.
Quez Watkins UNDER 20.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Watkins has only surpassed this number once in five outings this season. Yes, he did it last week when he produced a season-high four targets with three receptions and finished the day with 28 yards. However, even with more looks than usual, he barely was able to get over the hump. The other important thing to note about his one Over is that two of those receptions (20 yards) came in garbage time in the fourth quarter when the Eagles were down multiple scores to the San Francisco 49ers.
This week, the Eagles get arguably the best defense in the league in the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. And with Dallas Goedert back in the lineup alongside the dynamic duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, not to mention a solid running game led by Jalen Hurts and D’Andre Swift, it’s tough to envision Watkins demanding a ton of targets. There simply isn’t enough volume to go around and Watkins will be the one man left out.
Jake Ferguson OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-110)
Ferguson has emerged as one of Dak Prescott’s go-to targets. This week, the Cowboys host their division rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles, and this game has some major playoff implications. That said, Ferguson tallied 91 yards the last time these two teams squared off back in Week 9.
The Eagles allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and rank dead last at defending opposing wide receivers. Clearly, if the top team in the NFL needs to work on anything, it’s defending the pass, which won’t be so easy with Dak Prescott hitting on all cylinders.
Ferguson has exceeded this line in five games this year and is coming off a huge performance against the Seattle Seahawks in which he hauled in six receptions for 77 yards and one trip to the end zone. Ferguson has a 15% target share for Dallas this season, which is surprisingly second on the team only to CeeDee Lamb. Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup may get some looks but it appears the young tight end has emerged as Prescott’s second-favorite option in the passing game. Not to mention, the Eagles are extremely tough against the run so I don’t anticipate Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle being very effective. If The Cowboys want to make the race in the NFC East more competitive, Ferguson will have to be heavily involved.
