Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report
Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite game over the past three weeks despite not attempting more than 27 passes in each matchup. Dak Prescott (31.25 – 3rd) posted his fifth impact showing over the last six weeks. Eight other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 28.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 13 weeks:
- Josh Allen (27.91)
- Jalen Hurts (27.23)
- Dak Prescott (24.43)
- C.J. Stroud (23.62)
- Justin Herbert (22.52)
Using our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report.
Top Tier Options
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,000)
Over his last seven starts, Allen gained fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in five matchups (5.6, 6.5, 6.8, 6.8, and 6.6). He threw an interception in eight consecutive games. Allen tried to carry the Bills on his back in his start vs. the Eagles (420 combined yards with four touchdowns), but it wasn’t enough to win the game. All three (39.70, 32.35, and 33.30) of his other games with more than 30.00 fantasy points came at home. He has nine rushing scores over his last 10 starts.
Kansas City slipped to ninth in quarterback defense (17.55 FPPG), with only Jordan Love (26.35) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. They allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 18 touchdowns. The Chiefs have yet to give up more than three touchdowns in any matchup in 2023.
Allen is the highest-scoring quarterback (27.91) with a reasonable chance at scoring 3 times his salary at DraftKings in most weeks. His ceiling requires the Chiefs to play at a higher level offensively as well. I view him as more of a gamble than a target in Week 14.
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)
Over the last five games, Patrick Mahomes averaged 222 passing yards with only seven touchdowns and some help in the run game (24/117). The Chiefs’ lack of star power at wide receiver remains an issue. His only game (453/4) supporting his current salary came in Week 7 at home against the Chargers. Mahomes has 14 touchdowns in six games in Kansas City compared to eight on the road over the same number of snaps. In 2022, he gained 359 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bills.
Buffalo showed more risk defending quarterbacks in six of their last seven matchups (22.70, 23.75, 25.80, 20.65, and 38.50). Their defense has 41 sacks, allowing 12 passing scores over their previous six contests. Before last week (37 points and five touchdowns by Philly), the Bills’ defense didn’t allow more than three touchdowns in a game.
The Chiefs’ offense and Patrick Mahomes have much to prove in a challenging matchup. Kansas lost two of their past three games while losing momentum to earn the top seed in the AFC East. He seems overpriced, pointing to Mahomes being a lower percentage own this week.
Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,000)
After an explosive fantasy game (38.45) against the Lions at home, Jackson was a losing investment in the DFS market in four (13.55, 14.35, 17.25, and 16.75) of his last five starts. He hasn’t had a rushing touchdown since Week 7. Baltimore averaged 27.3 passing attempts over their previous seven contests despite gaining 8.3 yards per pass attempt. He’s on pace to gain 4,522 combined yards with 26 touchdowns.
The Rams sit 21st defending quarterbacks (20.23), with failure in three matchups (IND – 32.60, PHI – 31.35, and DAL – 32.25). Their defense has weakness vs. running quarterbacks (60/208/5). They allow 6.7 yards per pass attempt, with improved pass coverage over the past three games (SEA – 236/1, ARI – 256/0, and CLE – 254/2 – 5.8 yards per pass attempt).
There are multiple signs of Jackson posting an upside game in this matchup. The key to his success is the Rams putting a fight on the scoreboard. In my thoughts, with some potential opposing pieces with upside as well.
Mid-Tier Options
Justin Fields, CHI (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,900)
In his two games since returning from his thumb injury, Fields turned to dull passing games (169/1 and 217/0) on the road vs. the Lions and Vikings. On the positive side, he has been more active in the run game (18/104 and 12/59). When at his best in Week 4 (360/4) and Week 5 (339/4), Fields scored 30+ fantasy points in each matchup. His completion rate (64.4) is at a career-high level. Last year against Detroit at home, he delivered an impact game (167/2 with 13 rushes for 147 yards and two touchdowns).
The Lions had significant issues defending quarterbacks in Week 7 (BAL – 38.45), Week 10 (LAC – 32.65), and Week 12 (GB – 29.20), pushing them down to 26th in fantasy points allowed per game (21.56). Their defense gave up four touchdowns or more in four of their past six matchups. Three teams passed for more than 300 yards (SEA – 328/2, BAL – 357/3, and LAC – 323/4).
The Bears’ offense played well in their earlier matchup against Detroit while playing from the lead for most of the game. This led to consecutive play calling inside the 35-yard line, leading to four field goals and two touchdowns. I see a double-down on Fields this week, with at least 25 fantasy points in this game. The key to his ceiling is a bump in scoring with his legs.
Brock Purdy, SF (DK – $6,500/FD – $8,100)
Over the five games, Brock Purdy averaged 320 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions, putting him in the MVP conversation. He moved to sixth in quarterback scoring (268.45) while posting two impact games (30.05 and 32.60) over the past three weeks. Since Week 7, the 49ers gained 10.6 yards per pass attempt. On the downside, Purdy averages only 27.7 passes with minimal help in the run game (35/131/2). Two weeks ago, he passed for 209 yards and one touchdown against Seattle.
The Seahawks rank 22nd in quarterback defense (20.30 FPPG). They struggled in two (WAS – 329/3 and DAL – 322/3) of their past four contests. Seattle will give up touchdowns to running backs (15), an area San Francisco thrived in their last matchup (33/169/3). Their defense allows 6.8 yards per pass attempt, with 17 passing touchdowns allowed.
The 49ers return home for only the third time over the past eight weeks. They’ve scored 17 touchdowns and kicked five field goals over their last 42 possessions. Based on his recent play, Purdy has a reasonable salary, and San Fran has a good chance of scoring more than 30 points in this matchup.
Low-Value Option
Jake Browning, CIN (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,500)
The excellent showing by Browning in Week 13 (376/2) isn’t priced into his salary this week. He gained an impressive 9.6 yards per attempt vs. the Jaguars while completing 86.5% of his passes. Over his last two starts, Browning gained 612 yards with three touchdowns. With Tee Higgins back in the starting lineup, Cincinnati has another weapon to score in the passing game.
Indianapolis played well vs. quarterbacks over their last four games (13.75, 10.25, 17.35, and 14.70 fantasy points), moving them to 10th in quarterback defense (18.00 FPPG). Their worst showing came in Week 3 (BAL – 303/2). Their recent success against quarterbacks was helped by a favorable schedule (CLE, NO, CAR, NE, TB, and TEN). Over three games midseason, the Colts allowed 13 touchdowns and eight field goals on 32 possessions, showing potential risk vs. a better offense.
Browning remains a wild card as a quarterback option in the daily games, but he does have strength in his wide receiver corps. The Bengals showed flashes of running the ball better in two (23/136 and 31/156/3) of their last three matchups. Tempting, while being careful not to chase last week’s points. Browning only needs 250 yards and two touchdowns to fill his salary bucket.
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