Week 13 NFL Player Props
We are back to make some cash on player props in Week 13. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, we are now 34-28 (+6.9 Units). Sports betting is about riding the hot streaks and surviving the cold spells. After our first losing streak of the season in back-to-back weeks, it’s time to get back into the winning column. Have some faith as lady luck is about to shine some light on some juicy plays for us to exploit with these Week 13 NFL Player Props.
As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 13’s slate of NFL matchups. Unlike last week when every one of the 32 teams was in action, six teams will get some rest on their bye weeks. The Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and Las Vegas Raiders will not suit up in Week 13. That said, we still have 13 competitive matchups this week with only three games that have a spread of more than a touchdown.
Fantasy football players have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 13 NFL player prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.
Brock Purdy OVER 254.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The San Francisco 49ers have done an excellent job surrounding Purdy with immense talent. With Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and of course Christian McCaffrey, Purdy has all the weapons in his arsenal to continue to move the ball effectively, even if this may be his toughest test to date.
In a preview of what many expect to be the NFC Championship, the Niners draw the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles on the road in Week 13. Although Philly’s defensive front tends to get a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, this defense has struggled at limiting yardage through the air. The Eagles rank 29th in the league in passing yards allowed per game and allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
In San Francisco’s 31-13 thrashing of the Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving Day, Purdy only mustered 209 passing yards. But that’s because the team didn’t need him to sling it as they dominated in every facet of the game and had a double-digit lead most of the game after a 17-point second quarter. However, prior to last week’s outing, Purdy has topped 260 passing yards in four straight contests.
It’s also important to note that the Eagles have the third-ranked rushing defense in the NFL. Although Kyle Shanahan would love to employ a run-heavy approach utilizing superstar Christian McCaffrey in the trenches and Deebo Samuel on the edge, the running game may not be so effective against this high-caliber defensive front. If the Niners are going to keep pace with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, Purdy will have to air it out.
The Eagles are coming off an impressive 37-34 overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills but they did allow a whopping 339 passing yards from Josh Allen. And although they held Patrick Mahomes in check, yielding just 177 passing yards from him in Week 11, Dak Prescott lit this secondary up to for 374 yards back in Week 9 before Philly’s Week 10 bye. Want more evidence? Sam Howell produced 397 passing yards against the Eagles back in Week 8 and Howell isn’t as talented as Purdy nor does he have the same caliber of weapons at his disposal. It’s clear that although Philly is finding ways to win (sometimes in ugly fashion), they are very beatable in the passing game.
In what should be a very tightly contested battle, San Francisco will have to throw the ball often to move the chains and put points up on the board. Given Purdy’s recent form, the weapons around him, expected gameflow, and Philly’s recent struggles against the pass, Purdy should eclipse this line easily. I’m throwing multiple units on this one. Take the Over!
Jordan Love OVER 230.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Love has all the confidence in the world after the Green Bay Packers had a wire-to-wire victory over the NFC North leaders, the Detroit Lions, on Thanksgiving Day. Despite the fact that the Packers were massive underdogs, Love compiled 268 passing yards and three touchdowns. In fact, Love has now surpassed this line in three straight contests including against a very strong Pittsburgh Steelers secondary back in Week 10. And the two previous games where he missed the line, he finished with 229 and 228 passing yards respectively. Clearly, Love is on the upswing after failing to throw for 200 yards in three of his first six contests this season.
In Week 13, the Packers face a Kansas City Chiefs defense allowing just 177 passing yards per game. However, Green Bay is a massive underdog in this matchup and Love will need to air it out if the Pack have any hope of keeping pace with Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s high-octane offense. Although it may not be pretty, I believe Love will eclipse this line based on volume alone. The Packers will be playing catchup for most of the second half and Love finally seems to have developed some chemistry with Christian Watson. Plus, Jayden Reed has emerged into a truly dependable rookie receiver.
Given Love’s recent form, the progression of his receivers, and gameflow, Love should finish with close to 250 passing yards.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Gibbs got off to a slow start to the season and although he struggled in Week 12 against the Green Bay Packers, the rookie still managed to eclipse 50 rushing yards for the fourth time in his previous five contests. David Montgomery may be the official RB1 in Detroit but Gibbs is the future of the franchise at the running back position and the Lions are beginning to give their dynamic duo a more even 50-50 split when it comes to touches. After all, Gibbs is seeing 14 carries per game over his last five contests so he should have plenty of opportunity to surpass this line.
In Week 13, the Lions will look to get back on track against a very formidable New Orleans Saints defense. The Saints don’t allow a ton of fantasy points to opposing running backs but they do surrender just under 4.5 yards per carry. Given Jared Goff’s propensity to struggle on the road, Dan Campbell should look to run the ball down New Orleans’ throat. Not to mention, Goff has six turnovers in his last two games. The Lions are going to look to take an early lead and then rely on the running game and their defense to finish off the Saints.
Although I wouldn’t anticipate a monster performance on the ground from Gibbs, I’m very confident that he will hit the over on his rushing prop.
Tyler Allgeier OVER 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Allgeier may not be the RB1 on the depth chart but he’s still making an impact when rookie Bijan Robinson needs a breather. The second-year back has accumulated 466 yards and three trips to the end zone on 135 carries this season. Against a stout New Orleans defensive front in Week 12, Allgier tallied 64 rushing yards on 10 carries. Atlanta doesn’t fully trust Desmond Ridder so they are going to continue to employ a very run-heavy offensive approach.
This week, the Falcons will take on a New York Jets defense that hasn’t been quite as good as initially advertised. They are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have somewhat surprisingly struggled against the run this season (140.3 yards per game allowed).
Despite a tough road matchup, the Falcons are favored because the Jets seem content with rolling Tim Boyle back out there after he was crushed by the Miami Dolphins on Black Friday. Given that gameflow should work in Allgeir’s favor and the fact that he has eclipsed this line in seven of 11 games this season, I anticipate the second-year back to get the job done in East Rutherford on Sunday. It may not happen until the fourth quarter but the Falcons will use him to try to run some clock if they have a late lead.
Tyreek Hill OVER 6.5 Receptions (-135)
Every time we bet on Tyreek Hill, he rewards us so we’re going back to the well as Hill and the Dolphins prepare for a matchup with a Washington Commanders defense that traded away two of their top pass rushers in Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Washington’s secondary isn’t anything special either so expect Mike McDaniel to fire up some unique play calls to get the ball into his most explosive players’ hands.
The Commanders allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts and rank second-to-last in yards per pass allowed (7.5). The Commanders simply don’t have any defensive backs that have the speed to keep up with arguably the best wide receiver in the National Football League. Hill has surpassed this line in eight of his 11 contests and eight receptions is his median on the season.
Even if this game turns into a blowout, the Dolphins will likely get to that point by riding the Cheetah. Hill is going to be peppered with targets and I’d take this prop as high as -160ish. This should be an easy cash out. Don’t overthink it and take the over.
Tutu Atwell UNDER 2.5 Receptions (-120)
The Los Angeles Rams will host Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns’ filthy defense in Week 13. Cleveland boasts the best defense in the NFL and allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season. The Browns employ a man coverage approach on a league-high 44% of snaps (the league average is 24%). This doesn’t bode well for Atwell who struggles against man coverage. He has a 47% catch rate against man coverage versus a 69% catch rate against zone coverage.
Not to mention, since Cooper Kupp returned to action, Atwell’s usage and target share has seen a sharp decline. Since Kupp’s triumphant return back in Week 5, he and Puka Nacua have demanded just shy of 70% of the Rams’ targets against man coverage compared to 49.6% against zones. And since Week 5, 22% of Atwell’s targets against zone have been 20 or more yards downfield compared to 33% against man coverage. His catch rate has been decimated due to lower-percentage throws from Stafford downfield.
Atwell has only recorded three receptions in two of seven games since Kupp returned to action so the under seems like a safe wager here.
Pat Freiermuth OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Pittsburgh’s offense looked better after firing Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada. The offense was much more efficient under new play-caller Mike Sullivan. The tight end had a stunning performance in his second game back from injury. Freiermuth corralled nine of his 11 targets for 120 scoreless yards. The 11 targets are a massive number given that Freiermuth only ran a route on 66% of the team’s offensive snaps. However, it seems like that number could increase in Week 13 when the Steelers take on an Arizona Cardinals defense that has historically struggled against opposing tight ends in recent years.
Given the fact that Kenny Pickett threw for a season-high 278 yards last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Steelers may start to trust their second-year signal caller a bit more. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will play massive roles in this matchup but Freiermuth provides Pickett with a security blanket on checkdowns and intermediate routes when George Pickens and Diontae Johnson struggle to get open. Freiermuth has only surpassed this line in two of his five games this season but he has more momentum than ever as the Steelers continue to battle in the highly competitive AFC North.
