Week 12 DFS: Tight End Report
Last week, the tight end position had a down week in scoring, leading to only eight players scoring over 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. Three of those tight ends (Josh Oliver – 14.70, Stone Smartt – 12.10, and Luke Schoonmaker – 10.30) were backup options on their teams. George Kittle (22.90) was the only difference-maker at tight end in Week 12. Travis Kelce (16.40) posted the second-best game. Here are the top five tight ends over 11 weeks ranked by scoring average:
- Travis Kelce (15.71)
- T.J. Hockenson (15.60)
- George Kittle (13.80)
- Sam LaPorta (12.52)
- Mark Andrews (12.31)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 12 DFS: QB Report.
Elite Options
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,300)
The Chiefs struggled to get Kelce the ball over the past three weeks (6/58, 3/14, 7/44/1 on 22 combined targets), putting the brakes on his rising stock from Week 5 to Week 7 (31/370/2 on 33 targets). Last year, he had 13 catches for 63 yards and four touchdowns on 15 targets in two games vs. the Raiders. Kelce has a floor of nine targets in seven of his nine starts.
Las Vegas sits 11th in tight end fantasy defense (55/481/3 on 68 targets), with no player gaining more than 70 receiver yards (Tyler Conklin – 7/70). Their higher ranking is helped by a favorable tight end schedule (DEN – 7/56, BUF – 8/53/1, PIT – 3/41/1, LAC – 2/9, GB – 8/65, NE – 5/50, CHI – 1/16, DET – 9/62/1, NYG – 3/43, NYJ – 8/76, and MIA – 1/10).
Based on his salary, Kelce should be considered an elite option in the DFS market. He needs 30+ fantasy points to fill his salary bucket which requires a 7/100/2 type outcome. The decision is whether Kelce can match the top running backs and wide receivers in Week 12.
Mid-Tier Options
Dalton Kincaid, BUF (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,000)
Kincaid had a step back in play vs. the Jets’ defense (6/46 on seven targets). Over his last five starts, he caught 34 of his 39 targets (87.2%) for 318 yards and two touchdowns. The Bills had him on the field for 67% of their snaps in Week 11 compared to 83% over his previous three matchups. His opportunity has been 12.96 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring without his adding his two touchdowns, meaning he is in range of posting 20+ fantasy points when reaching the endzone.
The Eagles’ defense struggled with tight ends in Week 1 (NE – 8/92/1), Week 2 (MIN – 9/79/2), Week 8 (WAS – 7/61/1), and Week 9 (DAL – 8/91/1). They rank 23rd in wide receiver defense (50/482/6 on 65 targets). Also, Philadelphia has allowed a score in a tight end in their last three contests.
Philly can get after the quarterback at times (31 sacks), leading to some teams using their tight ends more in pass protection. Game flow sets the stage and opportunity for Kincaid, and his matchup does offer winnable upside.
Trey McBride, ARI (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,100)
Since taking over the starting job for the Cardinals, McBride has been an every-other-week player. He shined in Week 8 (10/95/1) and Week 10 (8/131) at home, with a step back in play in his other two matchups (3/22 and 5/43) on the road. Over his last three games, McBride averaged seven targets (14 in Week 8 vs. the Ravens in a chaser game).
The Rams sit 22nd vs. tight ends (45/568/4 on 64 targets), with two disaster showings (IND – 6/107/1 and PHI – 9/121/1). They average 12.6 yards per catch, with all of their failure against tight ends coming on the road (24/346/4). Also, every opponent away from Los Angeles has a touchdown from their tight ends.
McBride has the highest projections for the tight end position in Week 12, making him a value in the DFS market. Even with plenty of excitement about his potential, he must score 19.00 fantasy points to be in the mix.
Low-Value Options
Evan Engram, JAC (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,800)
After a progression game in Week 8 (10/88 on 10 targets) and a bye week, Engram delivered back-to-back quiet showings (4/12 and 4/29 on 13 targets). Last week, Zay Jones returned to action, adding another cog in the receiver target rotation for Jacksonville. When at his best. Engram had a floor of seven targets in eight matchups. However, he’s still looking for his first touchdown in 2023. In Week 3, Engram had seven catches for 67 yards on eight targets vs. the Texans.
Houston slipped to 31st defending tight ends (70/660/4). Their worst three games came against the Colts (6/80/1), Falcons (14/176 on 19 targets), and Tampa Bay (6/70/2 on nine targets). The Texans have yet to face a top-tier tight end.
Engram will have chances in this matchup, and his scoreless streak may end. He only needs 16.00 fantasy points to be in the Week 12 tight end mix at this level.
Kyle Pitts, ATL (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,300)
The Falcons gave Pitts five targets in each of his last four games, leading to dull production (3/47, 3/35, 4/56, and 3/30). His best stats came in back-to-back games at home in Week 5 (7/87) and Week 6 (4/43/1). Over Atlanta’s last eight games, Pitts averaged 13.20 fantasy points at home (three games) and 6.60 fantasy points on the road (five games).
New Orleans had massive issues vs. tight ends over their last two contests (CHI – 7/66/2 and MIN – 13/142/1). They fell to 21st in tight end defense (47/474/6 on 71 targets), with most of the damage coming over the last five games (33/375/5 on 48 targets).
However, the tight end position for the Falcons remains a two-headed split between Jonnu Smith and Pitts. They rank fourth in catches (74), second in receiving yards (886), and third in targets (108), but only have three scores. Pitts won’t jump off the stat sheet coming into this game, but he does have a winnable matchup if Atlanta gives a higher share of their tight end chances.
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