Week 12 NFL Quarterback Report
Trevor Lawrence (34.80 fantasy points) finished as the top quarterback in Week 11, moving him to 16th in quarterback scoring (189.10 FPPG) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Brock Purdy (30.05) was the only other quarterback to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. Twelve QBs posted between 21.00 and 28.50 fantasy points. Over the past three weeks, C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott were the highest two quarterbacks. Here are the top five players after 11 weeks in scoring average:
- Josh Allen (26.44)
- Jalen Hurts (26.14)
- Justin Herbert (24.21)
- C.J. Stroud (23.07)
- Dak Prescott (22.64)
Using our Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 12 NFL Quarterback Report.
Top Tier Options
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)
Allen continues to hold the top spot in quarterback scoring (290.85 fantasy points). But his ticket has come in only once (Week 8 – 33.30 fantasy points) over the past six weeks in the DFS market. The Bills played seven of their first 11 games at home (one matchup was overseas). He had more interceptions (6) than passing touchdowns (5) on the road. All three of his games with more than 30.00 fantasy points came at home.
Philadelphia ranks 29th vs. quarterbacks (22.99 FPPG), with failure in three matchups (MIN – 364/4, WAS – 408/4, and DAL – 388/3). Despite their struggles, the Eagles allow 6.6 yards per pass attempt while delivering 31 sacks. Wide receivers (166/1,922/15 on 266 targets) gained 200 yards in five different games (MIN – 17/265/2, WAS – 22/230/1, MIA – 20/206/1, WAS – 24/288/3, and DAL – 18/271/2).
The Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs combination has a chance to shine in this game, as both players must play well to win on the road against a top team in the NFL. On the downside, Philly allowed only two touchdowns on the ground, with none going to a quarterback. Allen needs at least 32.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to pay off.
Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,300/FD – $8,800)
The Cowboys and Chiefs’ defenses held Hurts to 422 combined yards over the last two weeks, but he still delivered five touchdowns, thanks to his value in the run game (22/65/3). Other than Week 8 (319/4), Hurts has 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions over nine matchups. His yards per rush (3.5) are a career-low while being on pace to score 15 times in the run game. Hurts has yet to score over 30.00 fantasy points at home this year.
Buffalo has the fourth-best defense against quarterbacks (16.50 FPPG). A favorable schedule has helped their success (Zack Wilson – 146/1, Jimmy Garoppolo – 186/1, Sam Howell – 188/0, Tyrod Taylor – 224/0, Mac Jones – 283/2, Baker Mayfield – 256/2, Russell Wilson – 223/2, and Zack Wilson/Tim Boyle – 130/1). The Bills have risk defending the run (268/1,215/8 – 4.5 yards per carry), with two teams passing for 300 yards (JAC – 315/1 and CIN – 348/2).
Philadelphia will try to run the ball to slow down the clock, suggesting success by Hurts on the ground. His star wideouts should have an edge in the deep passing game if the Bills don’t pressure the quarterback (31 sacks on the year). I expect him to post his best game of the season.
Mid-Tier Options
C.J. Stroud, HOU (DK – $7,700/FD – $7,700)
Stroud was on pace for another impact game in Week 11. But he uncharacteristically threw more interceptions (3) than he did over his first 318 passes (2) to start his NFL career. Over his last three starts, Stroud gained more than 9.0 yards per pass attempt in each game, leading to 1,179 yards and nine touchdowns. Based on his higher salary, only his Week 9 outcome (46.50 fantasy points) led to a winning day in the daily games. He has a minimum of two touchdowns in all five of his home starts.
The Jaguars rank 24th defending quarterbacks (21.22 FPPG). They’ve allowed more than 300 passing yards in five matchups (KC – 305/2, BUF – 359/2, IND – 329/1, NO – 301/1, and SF – 302/3). Over their last 45 pass attempts faced, the Jaguars gave up 460 yards and five touchdowns. Also, over 10.2 yards per pass attempt. In Week 3, Stroud had success vs. Jacksonville (294/2).
The Texans won their last three games, allowing them to move into first place with a win. Stroud has the tools to shine in this matchup, and Houston has run the ball better after turning to Devin Singletary over the last two games. I like his direction, and he is in my thoughts again in Week 12.
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,000)
Over his first two games back behind center, Murray gained 547 combined yards with three touchdowns while looking in form in the run game (13/84/2). Unfortunately, he has been unable to get Marquise Brown (3/42 on nine targets) rolling. Brown has a heel issue heading into Week 12.
The Rams played well vs. quarterbacks in seven games (10.20, 16.80, 11.95, 14.45, 17.50, 16.10, and 14.80 fantasy points) while getting drilled in their other three matchups (IND – 256/3, PHI – 375/2, and DAL – 323/4). They sit 17th in quarterback defense (19.80). Their secondary allowed only five touchdowns to wide receivers (118/1,557/5 on 196 targets). In Week 6, Joshua Dobbs gained 282 yards with no touchdowns against Los Angeles on the road.
However, Murray looks poised to post a winning day vs. the Rams. Also, his top two receiving options have reasonable salaries. Finally, his downside could come from the Rams struggling to score if they play without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Low-Value Options
Baker Mayfield, TB (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,800)
After 10 games, Mayfield is the 15th-ranked quarterback, scoring more than 20.00 fantasy points in five starts (21.55, 26.40, 23.75, 21.65, and 22.10). He only has one game with over two touchdowns. Tampa Bay threw the ball at a higher rate in three (42, 42, and 45 attempts) of their last five contests. Mayfield passed for 300 yards only in Week 2 (317/1).
Indianapolis ranks 13th in quarterback defense (18.39 FPPG) despite allowing more than 30 points in four games. Three teams (HOU – 384/2, LAR – 319/1, and NO – 354/2) passed for 300 yards. Their defense played much better over the past two weeks vs. the Panthers (13 points) and Patriots (6 points) on the road, helped by an improved pass rush over this span (nine sacks).
The draw toward Mayfield in this matchup is the Colts allowing 18 touchdowns, 12 field goals, and 160 points over 62 possessions over five games at home. Indy has risk vs. the run (330/1,401/14), increasing Tampa’s chances of moving the ball.
Gardner Minshew, IND (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,700)
After a surprising game (334 combined yards with four touchdowns) vs. the Browns in Week 7, Minshew gained only 541 yards over his next three starts with three scores. Over his seven starts, he only has 10 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Tampa Bay fell to 30th vs. quarterbacks (23.49 FPPG) after getting drilled three times (BUF – 365/3, HOU – 480/5, and SF – 347/3) over their last three games on the road. Six teams gained over 200 yards from their wide receivers (135/1,989/11 on 202 targets).
Minshew doesn’t deserve daily gameplay based on his recent play. But his matchup does offer upside. The Colts have two viable receiving options with Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, plus Jonathan Taylor does have value catching the ball. In addition, 11 of their top 19 quarterbacks don’t play on the main slate on Sunday.
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