Week 11 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
The wide receiver story from last week had two chapters. The first was the high-scoring battle between the Lions and Chargers, leading to Keenan Allen (11/175/2) posting his second monster showing of the year while Amon-Ra St. Brown (8/165/1) finished fourth in fantasy points (30.50). The second verse came via the right arm of Dak Prescott. CeeDee Lamb (11/165/2) fell ten yards behind Allen, giving him the runner-up prize for the week. The rise of the Cowboys’ passing attack led to Brandin Cook (9/173/1) finishing third for the week. Six other wideouts scored between 21.00 and 26.50 fantasy points in PPR formats. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average after 10 weeks:
- Tyreek Hill (25.03)
- Keenan Allen (22.84)
- A.J. Brown (22.61)
- CeeDee Lamb (22.13)
- Stefon Diggs (20.28)
Also, before we get into the Week 11 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.
Elite Options
Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,800)
The Dolphins’ passing offense sputtered in two challenging road games vs. Philadelphia (216/1) and Kansas City (193/1) in Week 7 and Week 9. But Hill still had a floor of eight catches while working closer to the line of scrimmage (11/88/1 and 8/62 – one 20-yard catch ~ 7.9 yards per reception). From Week 5 to Week 8 (8/181/1, 6/163/1, 11/88/1, and 8/112/1), he scored in each game, leading to 30.10 FPPG in DraftKings scoring. His top three scores in fantasy points (44.50, 30.70, and 32.10) came in odds weeks of the NFL schedule. Hill has double-digit targets in four consecutive starts (10, 15, 13, and 10).
Las Vegas continues to play better than expected defending wide receivers (6th – 109/1,318/7 on 173 targets). No team gained more than 175 yards from their wideouts. Their defense allowed 22 touchdowns (11 passing) over 105 possessions, with quarterbacks gaining 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Their success has been helped by a favorable pass schedule (Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love, Mac Jones, Tyson Bagent, Tommy DeVito, and Zack Wilson). Amon-Ra St. Brown (6/108) is the only wide receiver to gain more than 100 yards.
The Raiders will have their hands full defending the run vs. Miami, inviting some winning big plays off play-action passes for Hill. Their top three cornerbacks for Las Vegas allowed a high catch rate. But they’ve minimized the damage in big plays. Hill’s quickness and ability to get open should shine through in this matchup. I expect a minimum of one long score, most likely against Marcus Peters (29/287/3 on 32 targets – per PFF) due to his gambling mentality. On the downside, Hill must score 37.00 fantasy points to fill his salary bucket. Bet on his floor (26.70 fantasy points) while understanding that Miami is a much better offense at home.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,200)
Over the past three weeks, Dak Prescott upped his passing game, leading to 1,082 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 36.7 passes per game (31.7 over his first six starts). As a result, Lamb has three consecutive elite games (12/170/2, 11/191, and 11/165/2), thanks to a spike in his targets (14, 16, and 14). He finished 1st, 2nd, and 2nd in wide receiver scoring over this span. That lifted him to fourth (199.20 fantasy points) for the year. He is on pace to catch 128 passes for 1,981 yards and nine touchdowns. Last year, 24 of his 107 catches gained at least 20 yards. Lamb already gained 20 yards on 22 receptions in 2023.
Carolina has the fourth-best defense vs. wide receivers (94/1,156/6 on 136 targets), with two teams (NO – 17/204 and MIA – 15/234/2) gaining more than 200 yards. Their pass coverage was much better over the last three weeks (HOU – 140/0, IND – 127/1, and CHI – 162/0), leading to no touchdowns scored by wideouts (11/103, 11/86, and 9/91). Over this span, the Panthers defended only 83 passes (27.7 per game). Tyreek Hill beat their defense for 163 yards and a score with six catches, and Justin Jefferson (6/85/2) had success.
Lamb lines up in the slot on about 64% of his snaps, matching him with CB Troy Hill (17/135/0 on 27 targets – per PFF) on most plays. Hill has overachieved in yards allowed per catch (7.9) compared to his career resume (11.9) and technically isn’t a starter. The Cowboys are a much better team at home in scoring (40 points per game) than on the road (21.9 PPG). Lamb doesn’t have a touchdown this year away from Dallas while averaging six catches for 97 yards. The direction of the Cowboys’ offense suggests more passing chances. But Carolina can be beaten in close by the run. Not ideal in the daily games. But Lamb will be active again this week with a reasonable chance to score.
Keenan Allen, LAC (DK – $9,000/FD – $9,300)
Allen broke out of his quiet path over three matchups (4/55, 8/69, and 8/77) to post his third impact game (11/175/2) in Week 10. His other two top showings came in Week 2 (8/111/2) and Week 3 (18/215) on the road. He came out of last week’s game with a shoulder injury (AC joint) that could become an issue down the stretch. Allen is on pace to catch 138 passes for 1,691 yards and 11 touchdowns on 183 targets.
Green Bay has the fifth-best defense vs. wide receivers (95/1,133/7 on 147 targets), with one poor week in coverage (MIN – 16/191/2). Their success has been helped by a favorable schedule against quarterbacks (Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brett Rypien, and Kenny Pickett). Only one wide receiver (Chris Olave – 8/104) gained more than 100 yards. The Packers hope to have CB Jaire Alexander back in the starting lineup after missing four of their last seven matchups with a lingering back issue. CB Keisean Nixon (32/262/1 on 40 targets) handles most of the assignments out of the slot for Green Bay, pointing to his seeing Allen in coverage on many plays.
Over the past six weeks, the Chargers threw the ball well in only two games (289/3 and 323/4) at home. Justin Herbert had a low completion rate (54.2, 59.5, 56.7, and 53.3) in his four other games (167/1, 227/2, 259/1, and 136/0), suggesting a pullback in passing stats in this matchup. Allen’s shoulder issue and high salary are enough to fade him as the top end of the wide receiver pool in Week 10.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (DK – $8,800/FD – $8,900)
Over the last four games, the Lions played three games on the road (@TB, @BAL, and @LAC) with one matchup (LV) in Detroit. St. Brown gained 100 yards in each contest (12/124/1, 13/102, 6/108, and 8/165/1), leading to a pair of 30-point fantasy games (33.40 and 33.50) in DraftKings scoring. Despite missing one game, he ranks seventh in wide receiver scoring (171.40 fantasy points) in PPR formats. His floor game (5/56/1) in 2023 is 16.60 fantasy points. St. Brown gained over 100 yards in six games, including all three at home. Last year, he had 14 catches for 183 yards on 16 targets in two matchups vs. the Bears.
Chicago is about league average in wide receiver defense (17th – 127/1,402/8 on 194 targets). Tampa Bay (13/256/1) had the best output. Their pass defense allowed 20 touchdowns on the year, with quarterbacks gaining 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The Bears have 20 sacks (eight in two games – WAS and CAR). CB Tyrique Stevenson (52/513/7 on 72 targets – per PFF) allowed short yards per catch (9.9). But he has weakness in his catch rate allowed (72.2%) while giving up seven scores.
St. Brown is a high-volume wideout. But he does need a shootout game to have elite targets. Chicago defends the run well, while the Lions want to attack via their backs. Jared Goff should take advantage of the Bears’ weakness in pass coverage by their linebackers, inviting many catches at the second level of the defense. I sense the Lions’ passing will slant toward Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs while Detroit does their best to get David Montgomery a touchdown vs. his former team. St. Brown falls into the hot category, similar to CeeDee Lamb in Week 10, and this week’s game is at home.
Second Tier Options
Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,200)
The excitement of Kupp left the building over his last three games (2/29, 4/21, 2/48 on 24 targets) after showcasing his previous resume in Week 5 (8/118) and Week 6 (7/148/1). The Rams played their matchup in Week 9 with a backup quarterback, leading to no success passing the ball vs. the Packers (130/0). Over the first four games of the season, Matthew Stafford averaged 307 passing yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions while not having their star receiver in the lineup. Over their next three games at home with Kupp back on the field, the Rams had less success passing the ball (222/2, 226/1, and 232/1). They attempted only 30 passes per game over this span (41.5 over the first four games). Stafford has the lowest completion rate (59.7) of his career while coming off a thumb injury that led to him missing one and a third games.
Over their first five games, the Seahawks struggled in four matchups (LAR – 20/262, DET – 14/216/3, CAR – 24/287/2, and CIN – 16/141/2) defending wideouts. They did a much better job in wide receiver coverage over the past four weeks (ARI – 9/77, CLE – 8/119, BAL – 12/107/1, and WAS – 9/87/1 on 21 targets), helped by a favorable pass schedule. Seattle sits 19th in wide receiver defense (128/1,414/9 on 202 targets). Rookie CB Devon Witherspoon (22/232/2 on 46 targets – per PFF) missed the first game of the year vs. the Rams. He lines up in slot coverage on most plays, suggesting that the Seahawks will match him up with Kupp on as many plays as possible.
Based on his recent catch rate (33%), Kupp has much to prove in Week 11, along with better quarterback play by Matthew Stafford. When at his best from 2021 to 2023, he scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in eight of his 31 games. That gives him the floor to support his current salary. His WR/CB matchup isn’t ideal, making Kupp a wild card in Week 11.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,100)
The Dolphins did a better job getting Waddle the ball in his last three home starts (5/35/1, 7/51/1, and 7/121/1) while receiving 31 combined targets. His resume on the road over five games (19/207 on 31 targets) has been uneventful. He is on pace for 80 catches for 1,022 yards and six touchdowns on 118 targets. Last season, Waddle had more success making big plays (18.1 yards per catch – 13.1 in 2023).
CB Amik Robertson (19/227/1 on 30 targets – per PFF) played better in 2023 after giving up 15.5 yards per catch and four touchdowns last season. He left Week 10 with a concussion, but the Raiders expect him to play on Sunday.
Waddle has a much higher salary than his production on the field. He remains the outlier player in the Dolphins’ offense for the fantasy games. At some point, Waddle will have the difference-maker game while Tyreek Hill posts a down game. Only a flier in a Tua Tagovailoa stack due to his best play at home.
Third Tier Options
Christian Kirk, JAC (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,900)
The Jaguars’ offense was a complete bust in Week 10. But Kirk posted a reasonable game (6/104 on 11 targets) for his salary. Over his five home starts, he caught 32 of his 49 targets for 401 yards and two touchdowns (17.82 FPPG). His best showing came in Week 2 (11/110). Kirk also played well on the road in Week 9 (6/90/1). In his other three games away from Jacksonville, he had 11 catches for 133 yards. Last year vs. the Titans at home, Kirk had six catches for 99 yards with a score.
Tennessee ranks 26th in fantasy wide receiver defense (131/1,636/8 on 190 targets), with four teams (NO – 18/262/1, LAC – 20/214/2, CLE – 19/214/1, and TB – 13/223/1) gaining more than 200 yards. Their pass defense improved over the previous four games (BAL – 223/1, ATL – 202/1, PIT – 160/1, and TB – 278/2), helped by a favorable schedule. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting will be out again in Week 11. That leaves their slot coverage in the hands of Eric Garror (7/44/1 with 12 targets), who has one career start.
Jacksonville continued to fall short of expectations in their passing production. And Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have a game with more than two passing scores. Kirk’s salary fits his ceiling potential. And his play continues to rate higher than Calvin Ridley’s. Four wide receivers (Chris Olave – 8/112, Keenan Allen – 8/111/2, Amari Cooper – 7/116/1, and Mike Evans – 6/143/1) had success vs. the Titans.
Tank Dell, HOU (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,000)
With a WR1 opportunity over the last two games, Dell had 25 targets, leading to two winning days (6/116/2 and 6/69/1) for his salary. The Texans won’t have Noah Brown in Week 11 due to a knee injury. Meanwhile, Nico Collins has been taken off the injury report. Dell is on pace to catch 68 passes for 1,020 yards and 10 touchdowns on 114 targets.
Arizona is 16th vs. wide receivers (122/1,604/9 on 170 targets). Their biggest failure came against the Bengals (31/302/3 on 39 targets) due to an impact game by Ja’Marr Chase (15/192/3). Three other wideouts (Brandon Aiyuk – 6/148, Cooper Kupp – 7/148/1, and Amari Cooper (5/139/1) gained at least 100 yards. CB Marco Wilson (43/587/3 on 54 targets – per PFF) allows a high catch rate (79.6), with risk in big plays (13.7 yards per catch).
C.J. Stroud is on the rise, and Dell is his top wingman. His salary commands 24.00 fantasy points to pay off, an outcome he has reached twice (25.50 and 29.60) over his eight starts. In the mix at this price level. Houston should score the bulk of their touchdowns via the pass.
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