Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report
Three of the top four tight ends in Week 8 finished first, second, and third in Week 10. T.J. Hockenson posted an elite game (11/134/1), propelling him over Travis Kelce in year-long rankings. Trey McBride (8/131) took home the silver medal, followed by George Kittle (3/116/1). No other tight end scored more than 16.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five players after 10 weeks ranked by scoring average in PPR formats:
- T.J. Hockenson (16.21)
- Travis Kelce (15.63)
- Sam LaPorta (13.16)
- Mark Andrews (13.11)
- George Kittle (11.81)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 11 DFS: QB Report.
Top Tier Options
George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,000)
In two of Kittle’s three best games, he only had four targets in each matchup. The first score was driven by touchdowns (3/67/3), and the second came from hitting on a 66-yard touchdown (3/116/1), with two other catches gaining at least 20 yards. His best opportunity (11 targets) came in a chaser game in Week 8 (9/149). Over his last three games, Kittle averaged 21.17 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring.
Tampa Bay sits 22nd vs. tight ends (53/514/2 on 78 targets). Their two touchdowns allowed came over the last three weeks, with Dalton Schultz drilling them for 10 catches for 130 yards and one touchdown. One other team (MIN – 11/67) had double targets, and five more offenses posted at least five catches.
Kittle has a higher salary than his overall chances (5.2 targets per game) compared to the best tight ends in the game. His yards per catch (16.0) create an edge, and he scored 11 times over his last 20 starts. Kittle is trending higher, but his impact value requires more targets. I view him as more of an option in a 49ers’ passing stack.
Sam LaPorta, DET (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,700)
Over the first nine games, LaPorta has a definable trend in the DFS market. He scored four touchdowns over four matchups at home (5/63, 8/84/1, 3/47/2, and 8/57/1), leading to 18.28 fantasy points per game. Away from Detroit, LaPorta has yet to deliver a playable outcome (5/39, 4/56, 4/36, 6/52, and 4/40) despite having a floor of four catches. Over his nine starts, LaPorta averages 7.1 targets and 10.1 yards per catch.
Chicago struggled vs. tight ends in four contests (KC – 8/78/1, WAS – 12/105/1, LAC – 5/52/2, and NO – 10/65/2). They rank 27th in tight end defense (65/516/6 on 80 targets). Tight ends gain short yards per catch (7.9), which is overcome by a high catch rate (81.3).
His resume at home and scoring ability give him a chance to pay off in Week 11, but LaPorta must score at least 23.00 points to fill his salary bucket (8/90/1 – type of game). The Lions are a high-scoring team, giving their receiving options multiple chances to reach the endzone.
T.J. Hockenson, MIN (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,400)
Coming into last week, Hockenson battled a rib issue, but he gutted out an impact game (11/134/1). Over his previous four games, the Vikings looked his way 48 times (12 per week), giving him a WR1 opportunity (35/377/2 – 21.93 FPPG). His uptick in targets was a direct result of Justin Jefferson being injured. Hockenson had his four highest catch games (8, 8, 11, and 11) in Minnesota.
Denver ranks poorly in tight end defense (31st – 55/620/4 on 69 targets). Most of the damage came in three games (WAS – 7/89/1, CHI – 10/111/2, and KC – 11/138). In addition, three other teams scored at least 15.00 fantasy points from their tight ends (NYJ – 7/81, KC – 8/83, and BUF – 5/51/1). The Broncos’ defense played much better over the last four games (16.8 points) while allowing only six touchdowns.
Hockenson was severely underpriced last week, and his salary in Week 11 almost matches his production over the previous month. Joshua Dobbs will take the short-chain moving completions, giving him a reasonable floor even if Justin Jefferson returns to face Denver. Hockenson did take a beating vs. the Saints, leading to him being limited in practice again this week.
Second Tier Options
Dalton Kincaid, BUF (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,800)
Since the injury to Dawson Knox, Kincaid delivered four consecutive top 5 tight end games (8/75, 5/65/1, 10/81, and 5/51/1) while averaging eight targets. His floor over this span has been 15.50 fantasy points. He is on pace to 80 passes for 780 yards and four touchdowns. His catch rate (88.2) has been elite all season and commands more chances. In Week 1, in a split role vs. the Jets, Kincaid caught four passes for 26 yards.
New York comes into Week 11 with a below-par ranking vs. tight ends (18th – 39/379/6). Tight ends scored five times over the first five weeks, with New England (5/106/1) and Kansas City (7/94/1) posting the top outcomes. Their tight end defense was much improved over the last five matchups (DEN – 4/26/1, PHI – 5/42, NYG – 4/3, LAC – 2/18, and LV – 4/26/.1), helped by a favorable schedule in four games.
Kincaid looks poised to be a tight end force over the final seven starts. He is clearly the second option in the passing game for Josh Allen with goal-line value. His downside in this game is that the Jets haven’t allowed more than two touchdowns in eight of their nine matchups.
Dalton Schultz, HOU (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,800)
After his best game (10/130/1) with the Texans, C.J. Stroud only looked for Schultz six times vs. the Bengals. On the positive side, he gained 20 yards or more on two receptions, leading to four catches for 71 yards. Since his slow start over his first three games (2/4, 4/34, and 1/9), Schultz averaged five catches for 62 yards and 0.67 touchdowns (15.57 FPPG – 20.10 at home).
The Cardinals have the fourth-best defense (37/383/2 on 56 targets) vs. tight ends. Only one team scored more than 15.00 fantasy points (BAL – 5/50/1). Five offenses caught at least five passes from their tight ends. Arizona allows 26.3 points per game and 30 touchdowns on 107 possessions.
Schultz comes into this week with a hamstring issue that appears to be minor. The Texans’ passing attack is rising, and Stroud will get him plenty of chances, with a reasonable chance of scoring in this game.
Low-Value Option
Trey McBride, ARI (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,900)
McBride has been on the winning ticket in the Millionaire Maker at DraftKings twice over the last three weeks. His season started with 15 catches for 170 yards on 21 targets over seven matchups while working behind Zach Ertz on the depth chart. A starting job in Week 8 and a chaser game vs. the Ravens led to McBride posting the best game (10/95/1 on 14 targets) in his NFL career. After a challenging matchup in Cleveland (3/22), he shined again at home (8/131 on nine targets).
Houston has the worst defense in the league against tight ends (60/552/3 on 81 targets). Their regression in coverage came over four (ATL – 14/176, NO – 11/102, TB – 6/70/2, and CIN – 9/51) of their last five matchups. The Texans gave up more than 300 yards passing in four of their previous seven contests, with quarterbacks gaining at least 8.0 yards per pass attempt in six games on the year.
McBride’s salary hasn’t caught up to his recent production, and the return of Kyler Murray should lead to more scoring by the Cardinals’ offense. A chaser game in Week 11 invites follow-through for McBride, but his ticket has yet to be cashed on the road. He’ll be a popular cheat tight end that requires a 5/60/1 game to pay off.
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