Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11

We need redemption after last week’s clunker. Fortunately, this week’s Thursday tilt featured two contenders from the tough AFC North. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 breaks down the fantasy and sports betting prospects for the Bengals versus Ravens slugfest.

The road through the AFC playoffs currently goes through Baltimore. John Harbaugh’s Ravens boast an AFC-best 7-3 mark and will be amped to right the ship after a last-second loss to Cleveland in Week 10. Baltimore’s +113 point differential is the best in the league and the club is preparing for this game as if it were a postseason contest.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are also coming off of an emotional home loss to a Texans team that Baltimore easily handled in Week 1. The Bengals got off to a rough start thanks to Joe Burrow’s calf injury. But Zac Taylor’s had won four straight before Week 10. One of Cincinnati’s losses came to Baltimore, so the Bengals will be extra motivated to even the score.

Baltimore opened as a slight favorite. However, the line has shifted to the Bengals currently listed as 3.5-point underdogs. And the opening total of the game was 43.5.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Cincinnati Bengals	27	16	32	23	20
Baltimore Ravens	4	20	1	5	5

It is quite unusual to see the Bengals sporting a bottom-tier offense. But most of those struggles can be attributed to Joe Burrow’s preseason calf strain. The Bengals scored one of zero touchdowns in three of their first four games- the main culprit in that 1-3 start.

However, things have drastically turned around since that 34-20 drubbing of the Cardinals. Burrow has been the fantasy QB4 over the last four games. Also, the running game has struggled all season. Cincinnati is running for an NFL-worst 74.8 yards per game. Facing the NFL’s top run defense, don’t expect those numbers to improve on Thursday.

While the Ravens rank fourth in the NFL in offense, their performance has fallen flat. Todd Monken’s high-octane passing attack hasn’t come to fruition. Instead, Baltimore is back to being an old-school Ravens’ offense that leads the league in rushing.

Also, Baltimore’s defense ranks fourth overall while leading the league in fewest points allowed. The Ravens have won four of their last five when hosting the Bengals. Another victory would seriously hamper Cincinnati’s postseason hopes.

Finally, weather shouldn’t be a factor. Game time temperatures are projected to be 52 degrees with less than a 10% chance of showers.

Cincinnati Offense

Cincinnati’s passing game has improved at the same rate as Joe Burrow‘s recovery. Once Burrow’s mobility was unhampered, the Bengals’ passing attack started humming. Since Week 5, Burrow had multiple touchdown strikes in each game and is averaging 311.6 yards of total offense.

But that won’t be easy to achieve traveling on a short week to face the NFL’s No. 4 pass defense. In six career matchups against the Ravens, Burrow sports a 3-3 record with 11 touchdown passes. But, Burrow has not eclipsed 222 passing yards in each of his last three against Baltimore.

RB Joe Mixon has struggled all season and mostly be bottled up in a dozen career meetings with Baltimore. Despite ranking sixth with a 73.9% snap share. Mixon’s 13.3 fantasy points per game ranks 21st. However, he has scored in three straight games overall and has four total touchdowns in his last five vs. Baltimore.

With Tee Higgins out, the passing game will go through Ja’Marr Chase. Chase only saw six targets last week while dealing with a back injury but still managed to put up a 5/124/1 line on Houston. Baltimore ranks eighth versus enemy wideouts. Also, Chase has averaged seven grabs for 98.6 yards in five matchups with this secondary. Subsequently, we’re expecting another banner fantasy performance.

Tyler Boyd will see a boost in targets sans Higgins. Boyd runs a whopping 89% of his routes out of the slot and will enjoy an advantageous matchup against Baltimore slot corner Arthur Maulet. View Boyd as a strong WR3 and possibly the second wideout to target in daily lineups.

Trenton Irwin replaces Higgins on the boundary. Irwin had a 10.3% target share and found the end zone against Houston last week. Interestingly, the Ravens have only allowed five touchdown receptions to wideouts but two of them went to Higgins back in Week 2.

Taylor is now employing a full-on committee at tight end. Subsequently, it is difficult to trust any of Cincinnati’s tight ends in fantasy lineups. Drew Sample boasted a 15.4% target share in Week 9, but it was Tanner Hudson who led the way last week. That can only mean Irv Smith Jr. will lead the group this week.

Regardless, it’s a poor matchup. The Ravens only surrender 9.1 fantasy points to opposing tight ends, who have accumulated just one touchdown all season versus Baltimore.

Baltimore Offense

QB Lamar Jackson enters this game as the QB3. However, 18 NFL quarterbacks have thrown more touchdown passes. Jackson does lead all QBs in rushing yards (481). And that has been a problem for Cincinnati’s defense. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (247).

Jackson has won seven of his nine career matchups against Cincinnati. His passing numbers are innocuous but on the ground, Jackson averages 71.3 yards (6.2 YPC) versus the Bengals.

The Ravens lead the NFL with 154.9 rushing yards per game- more than twice what the Bengals muster. Jackson is a big part of that. But, Baltimore has embraced a full-blown committee backfield. Gus Edwards leads the way with 502 yards and eight scores. Seven of those TDs have come in the last month.

The newcomer Keaton Mitchell has only played 27 snaps in the past two games but has routinely churned out chunk plays. Mitchell touches the ball 50% of the time he’s on the field and has produced a touchdown in each game. The rookie is red-hot and warrants flex consideration along with attention from DFS players.

Mitchell’s ascension has hurt Justice Hill. Hill only played 14 snaps against Cleveland and wasn’t targeted. He can no longer be trusted in fantasy lineups.

Speaking of trust, it is hard to have any faith in Baltimore’s receiving corps. Zay Flowers is the clear No. 1 wideout, leading the way in targets (68), catches (50), and yards (545). Back in Week 2, Flowers hauled in 4-of-5 targets for 62 yards against the Bengals.

After Flowers, it gets tricky.

Odell Beckham Jr. scored a 40-yard touchdown last week but only saw two targets. However, Beckham had four-plus looks in his previous six. Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman will also see snaps but fall outside of the top 75 in scoring for the season. Baltimore’s ancillary receivers are no more than DFS dart throws.

TE Mark Andrews is the real star in Baltimore’s passing attack. Andrews leads all tight ends with six TD grabs. And Andrews likes playing the Bengals. He’s found the end zone seven times in 10 career matchups with the Bengals, including in the last three matchups.

Prediction & Best Bet

As mentioned, the Bengals have won four of their last five games. But they’ve also been hot against the spread, covering 4-of-5 and 15 of their last 20. In their last 10 games as visitors, Cincinnati has covered 70% of the time. Finally, Cinci has covered in five of their last six games played at M&T Bank Stadium.

Conversely, the Ravens have also been a tough out for opponents and bettors. Baltimore has won eight of their last dozen games dating back to last year. They’ve also won four of their last home dates with the Bengals.

However, scoring has been an issue for both squads. The UNDER has hit in five of Cincinnati’s last seven away games and in 10 of Baltimore’s last 12. But when these two teams hook up, that goes out the window. The OVER has hit in the last three games when the line was over 45 but is 0-3-1 with a total of 45 or fewer points.

The current line is up to 45.

Best Bet: OVER 45 WIN

UPDATE: I also like Mark Andrews OVER 58.5 yards and the Ravens -1.5 first half.

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