Week 10 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
The theme for last week in the DFS market was the Houston Texans’ passing game, highlighted by the success of Tank Dell (6/116/2 – 1st) and Noah Brown (6/153/1 – 3rd). CeeDee Lamb (11/191) finished second, giving him explosive stats (23/349/2 on 30 targets) over the past two weeks. Three other wideouts (Amari Cooper – 24.90, Stefon Diggs – 22.60, and Diontae Johnson – 22.00) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average in PPR formats after nine weeks:
- Tyreek Hill (25.03)
- A.J. Brown (22.61)
- Stefon Diggs (21.82)
- Keenan Allen (20.63)
- CeeDee Lamb (19.96)
Also, before we get into the Week 9 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Keenan Allen, LAC (DK – $8,800/FD – $9,000)
Since posting two impact games in Week 2 (8/111/2) and Week 3 (18/215), Allen averaged 14.76 fantasy points (30/318/2 on 44 targets). He remains on an elite pace (132/1,530/9 on 176 targets). The Chargers’ wideout had 66 catches for 768 yards and four touchdowns on 88 targets over the first three games, followed by 60 catches for 744 yards and two touchdowns on 95 targets over their last five matchups.
The Lions rank 14th vs. wide receivers (98/1,174/7 on 163 targets). Seattle (20/171/2), GB (15/210/1), and CAR (19/197/2) had the most success. Wideouts have a low catch rate (60.1) while gaining 12.0 yards per catch. CB Brian Branch (17/133/3 on 24 targets – per PFF) allows short yards per catch (7.8).
Allen has the edge in experience in his WR/CB matchup. And he is the Chargers’ top target by a wide margin. His salary requires more than 34.00 fantasy points, so Allen needs a high-scoring game with multiple touchdowns to be viable in Week 10. I view him as overpriced, and Los Angeles hasn’t shown the passing for him pay off in this matchup.
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,300)
The Bills held Chase to four catches for 41 yards on eight targets while playing through a back issue after landing awkwardly on an incomplete pass. Cincinnati lists him as questionable for this week’s game. He was on the field for 90% of their snaps last week, suggesting that Chase should play on Sunday. His best value this year came in Week 3 (12/141), Week 5 (15/192/3), and Week 8 (10/100/1). Over his other five starts (5/39, 5/31, 7/73, 6/80, and 4/41), he failed to score more than 15.00 fantasy points.
Houston has the fourth-best defense vs. wide receivers (90/1,266/5 on 139 targets) while having a favorable pass schedule (BAL, IND, JAC, PIT, ATL, NO, CAR, and TB). The Saints (14/236/1) had the most success. Despite the appearance of a top team in coverage, the Texans allow 7.7 yards per pass attempt, with five offenses attempting 31 passes or fewer. Wideouts gain 14.07 yards per catch. Houston may have their top CB Derek Stingley back this week.
Chase has a winnable matchup as long as he loses his injury tab by Sunday. He has the explosiveness to fill his salary bucket. And his targets will be high with Tee Higgins out this week. In Joe Burrow, Chase trusts. And his star quarterback is trending higher.
Second Tier Options
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (DK – $8,300/FD – $8,600)
After two active games (12/124/1 and 13/102) with 34 combined targets, St. Brown gained more than 100 yards in Week 8 (6/108) for the third consecutive start. He reached the 100-yard mark in five of his seven starts while having a floor of 15.20 fantasy points in 2023. His catch rate (74.0) is elite, with an uptick in his yards per catch (11.7 – 11.0 in 2022 and 10.1 in 2021). St. Brown is on pace to catch 130 passes for 1,520 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Chargers are 28th in wide receiver defense (104/1,530/9 on 166 targets), with most of their failure coming in Week 1 (21/375/3) and Week 3 (15/242/2). They allow 14.7 yards per catch, with three stud wide receivers (Tyreek Hill – 11/215/2, Justin Jefferson – 7/149/1, and CeeDee Lamb – 7/117). Detroit will try to get him matched up with CB Michael Davis (37/395/5 on 59 targets – per PFF) for scoring upside, while all three of LA’s top cornerbacks have coverage risk in different ways.
St. Brown should be active in this matchup with the tools and opportunity to post double-digit catches with more than 100 yards receiving. The pass rush for the Chargers picked up last week vs. the Jets (8 sacks). But their aggressiveness will have less effectiveness vs. Jared Goff and a better all-around offense. If coin tossing between Keenan Allen and St. Brown, my bet is on the Lions’ player.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – $8,500/FD – $8,900)
Over the last three weeks, Lamb caught 30 of his 37 targets for 466 yards and two touchdowns. His improved output parallels the uptick in play by Dak Prescott (272/1, 304/4, and 374/3). He also played well in Week 2 (11/143). In his four down days (4/77, 4/53, 4/36/1, and 4/49), Lamb had a much weaker opportunity (22 combined targets). Dallas shut out the Giants in Week 1 (40-0), leading to the Cowboys having no reason to throw the ball (143/0) and a dull outing for Lamb in fantasy points (11.70).
New York sits 19th vs. wideouts (112/1,448/7 on 176 targets), with one disaster showing (19/281/2). The Giants tend to have minimal pass rush (15 sacks – 10 in two games ~ WAS and NYJ), pointing to the Cowboys moving the ball well in Week 10. Four wide receivers (Deebo Samuel – 6/129/1, Tyreek Hill – 8/181/1, Stefon Diggs – 10/100, and Garrett Wilson – 7/100) gained more than 100 receiving yards. In this matchup, CB Cor’Dale Flott (17/167/1 on 28 targets – per PFF) should be overmatched by Lamb.
The lack of offense by the Giants lowers the ceiling of the Cowboys’ passing game in this contest. For Lamb to have any chance of filling his salary bucket in Week 10, he must shine over the first half vs. New York.
Third Tier Options
Mike Evans, TB (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,600)
The Bucs’ wide receivers only had nine catches for 154 yards on 15 targets vs. the Texans, leading to Evans posting another short day (4/87) in Week 9. Over his last two starts, Tampa looked his way only 11 times. He scored a touchdown in five of his first seven matchups while just missing again vs. Houston. Evans posted his only impact game (6/171/1) in Week 2 at home.
The Titans improved to 26th in wide receiver defense (118/1,413/7 on 168 targets) after better play over the past five games (CIN – 14/135, IND – 9/149, BAL – 12/139/1, ATL – 15/195/1, and PIT – 11/105/1). Over the first three weeks, Tennessee showed risk vs. wideouts (NO – 18/262/1, LAC – 20/214/2, and CLE – 19/214/1). Three wide receivers (Chris Olave – 8/112, Keenan Allen – 8/111/2, and Amari Cooper – 7/116/1) gained more than 100 yards. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting won’t play this week, leaving CB Kristian Fulton (24/319/1) and CB Roger McCreary (24/236/0) as their top two coverage players.
Evans doesn’t have a game with more than six catches. His salary commands a 7/100/1 type showing to be in the mix in Week 10. I can’t dismiss a high-scoring matchup with a Tampa/Tennessee game stack coming in.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,800)
Aiyuk scored eight times in 2022 and twice in Week 1. Over his last six starts, the 49ers failed to connect with him in the end zone. He’s gained over 100 yards in three games (8/129/2, 6/148, and 5/109). From Week 4 to Week 8, Aiyuk had 24 catches for 448 yards on 38 targets while working more as a big-play wide receiver (18.7 yards per catch). The 49ers gave him double-digit targets only once this year.
Jacksonville ranks 21st vs. wide receivers (106/1,333/9 on 178 targets). Three teams (KC – 15/200/1, HOU – 12/226/1, and BUF – 18/297/2) gained more than 100 yards. They’ve allowed at least one touchdown to wideout in each game this year. CB Darious Williams (33/439/0 on 53 targets – per PFF) has yet to allow a touchdown. But he does have disaster risk.
Opponents average 41.75 passes vs. the Jaguars, with four teams passing for 300 yards. Aiyuk should be active in this game. And he has a good chance of breaking his scoring streak in Week 10. His price point seems high for his 2023 path. However, Aiyuk has the talent to deliver an impact game at times.
Fourth Tier Options
Christian Kirk, JAC (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,700)
Kirk has been a better player at home (26/297/2) than on the road (17/223/1) while posting two playable games (11/110 and 6/90/1) on the year. The Jaguars gave him short targets in three consecutive matchups (6, 6, and 5). Last year, he had seven productive games (6/117, 6/78/2, 8/76/1, 9/105/2, 6/104, 6/99/1, and 8/78/1).
San Francisco lost their way vs. wide receivers over their last two games (MIN – 17/241/2 and CIN – 121/235/3), leading to them failing to 29th against wideouts (129/1,397/8 on 184 targets). Receivers have a high catch rate (70.1) while gaining 10.8 yards per catch. CB Isiah Oliver (35/271/3 on 40 targets – per PFF) works mostly out of the slot in coverage.
This matchup has sneaky upside, and both teams have the tools to score. Kirk should be active in this game, with a favorable WR/CB matchup. I like him more in a game stack than a one-off play.
Tank Dell, HOU (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,400)
With the game on the line late in the fourth quarter, C.J. Stroud connected on a 26-yard catch and a game-winning 15-yard touchdown to Tank Dell. After seven starts, he has 28 catches for 454 yards and four touchdowns on 43 targets, with one other impact game (5/145/1) for his salary.
The Bengals have the 13th-best wide receiver defense (85/1,256/5 on 146 targets). They allow 14.8 yards per catch, with weakness in one game (16/254). Their defense gave up seven touchdowns and 58 points over the past four contests while facing Arizona, Seattle, San Fran, and Buffalo. CB Cam Taylor Britt (21/361/1 – per PFF) will give up some big plays (17.2 yards per catch), but receivers have a low catch rate (53.8).
With Nico Collins ruled out this week, Dell should operate as the Texans’ WR1 vs. Cincinnati. He has volume upside in catches, along with scoring potential. Robert Woods should return this week, so Dell is far from a lock while being a popular play in Week 10.
Possible Backend Fillers: Demario Douglas, Tyler Boyd, Josh Reynolds
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