Week 9 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
The big mover in the wide receiver rankings in Week 8 was CeeDee Lamb after turning in the top production (12/170/2). DeAndre Hopkins (4/128/3) and A.J. Brown (8/130/2) were the other two players to post impact games. Ten wide receivers scored between 21.00 and 26.00 fantasy points, giving daily gamers many outs this week. Here’s a look at the top five wideouts in scoring average in PPR formats:
- Tyreek Hill (26.48)
- A.J. Brown (22.99)
- Stefon Diggs (21.73)
- Ja’Marr Chase (21.40)
- Keenan Allen (21.34)
Also, before we get into the Week 9 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.
Elite Options
A.J. Brown, PHI (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,000)
With Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs off the main slate on Sunday, Brown will be a popular player at the top end at wide receiver. He has been exceptionally hot over his last six games (9/131, 9/175/2, 6/127, 7/131, 10/137/1, and 8/130/2), averaging 30.02 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. Four of his five touchdowns came against Washington. Brown had two solid games (5/67/1 and 6/103) in 2022 vs. the Cowboys.
Dallas ranks second defending wide receivers (58/819/4 on 114 targets). Keenan Allen (7/85/1) posted the best game, and no wideout has gained more than 100 yards against the Cowboys. Their success in coverage has been helped by facing four poor passing offenses (NYG, NYJ, ARI, and NE). Dallas tends to keep their top two outside cornerbacks (Stefon Gilmore and DaRon Bland) at the same position on the field for most plays, That will allow the Eagles to get more favorable matchups for their top wide receiver. On the year, Gilmore and Bland allowed a combined 35 catches on 72 targets for 483 yards and two scores (Per PFF). Slot cornerback Jourdan Lewis is the weak link in coverage (12/168/3 on 19 targets).
The injury to CB Trevor Diggs should be exposed by the Eagles’ passing game in Week 9. Brown will get his chances, and he is trending forward in scoring. His winning streak stands at six games. But can his ticket come in every week?
Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $8,500/FD – $8,700)
The Steelers and Cowboys shut down Kupp over the past two weeks (2/29 and 4/21 on 17 combined targets). His regression in catch rate (35.2) over this span is a concern. And Los Angeles lost their passing magic from Week 5 to Week 8 (222/2, 226/1, 231/1, and 204/1) despite playing three games at home and having Kupp back in the starting lineup. The Rams had him on the field for all of their plays over the last three weeks, and he did shine vs. the Eagles (8/118) and Cardinals (7/148/1).
Green Bay ranks 12th in wide receiver defense (79/954/7 on 115 targets), with Minnesota (16/191/2) having the most success. CB Jaire Alexander returned last week after missing three of the Packers’ previous four matchups. Despite “name value” in coverage, his play has been subpar in two games (ATL – 5/99/1 and MIN – 6/64/1). Over the last week, the Packers traded CB Rasul Douglas to Buffalo, leaving the outside starting cornerback job to Carrington Valentine (a seventh-round draft pick in 2023). He allowed 17.8 yards per catch this year. I don’t fear Green Bay’s slot cornerback option (Keisean Nixon).
If Matthew Stafford doesn’t play this week, Kupp and the Rams receiving options will have lower chances of scoring and fewer overall targets. Kupp should rebound in this matchup. But I don’t have faith in him if Brett Rypien is throwing Kupp the ball. Over nine games in his NFL career over four seasons, he completed 60.7% of his passes with four touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Second Tier Options
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,800)
After trending forward in Week 6 (7/117), Lamb came out of the bye with an explosive showing (12/170/2 on 14 targets) against the Rams. His success lifted him eighth in wide receiver scoring (130.60) in PPR formats. The Cowboys struggled to get him the ball in his first three road games (4/77, 4/62, and 4/49) while receiving 16 combined targets. In 2022, Lamb posted an impact output (10/120/2) in his home start vs. the Eagles while coming up short in Philadelphia (5/77).
Surprisingly, Philly has the worst defense against wide receivers (134/1,528/12 on 214 targets) despite quarterbacks gaining only 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Their defense has 25 sacks after eight games but only one last week vs. a Commanders offensive line that gave up 40 sacks over their first seven matchups. Four teams (MIN – 17/265/2, WAS – 22/230/1, MIA – 20/224/1, and WAS – 24/288/3) gained more than 200 yards from their wideouts. CB Darius Slay (36/393/2 on 50 targets – PFF) won’t cover Lamb on many plays due to him rarely working in slot coverage.
Lamb doesn’t have a winning resume in Philadelphia (4/46, 2/25, and 5/77). But there are two factors inviting upside for him in this matchup. The Eagles have a high-scoring offense, creating a possible chaser game. In addition, Philly has shown plenty of risk defending wide receivers so far this season. Dak Prescott had one of the better games (295/5) of his career in Week 18 of 2021 in Philadelphia. A dark horse for another winning day.
Davante Adams, LV (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,000)
At this point of the season, Adams is a complete wild card. He comes off four consecutive down games (4/45, 2/29, 7/57, and 1/11), with his last score coming in Week 3. The Raiders fired their head coach and named Aidan O’Connell as their starting quarterback for Week 9. In his first career start in the NFL in Week 4, Adams caught eight of his 13 targets for 75 yards from O’Connell.
The Giants’ defense allowed 14 touchdowns and eight field goals over their first five games, with most of the damage coming against running backs. They rank 17th in wide receiver defense (101/1,277/7 on 157 targets). Their biggest failure came against Miami (19/281/2). CB Adoree Jackson (27/390/1 on 36 targets – per PFF) allows a high catch rate (75.0) and some damage in big plays (14.4 yards per catch).
Adams needs a progression game before being trusted in the DFS market. His salary requires more than 30.00 fantasy points. But he has to walk before he can run. Last year, in Week 8, Adams only had one catch for two yards. He posted a difference-maker game (10/146/2) the following week. Unfortunately, any bet here starts with better quarterback play and overall offense by Las Vegas.
Third Tier Options
Adam Thielen, CAR (DK – $7,500/FD – $8,300)
Last week, Thielen repeated his active role (8/72 on 11 targets) in the Panthers’ offense. However, he gained only 9.0 yards per catch with no touchdowns. Over his previous five starts, Carolina looked his way 59 times (11.8 per week), leading to three impact games (11/145/1, 11/107/1, and 11/115/1) on the road. In 2022, with the Vikings, Thielen caught three of his four targets for 41 yards and one touchdown against the Colts.
Indianapolis sits 18th in wide receiver defense (104/1,397/7 on 159 targets), with two disaster showings (HOU – 21/309/2, LAR – 16/216/1, and NO – 12/267/1). Their defense allowed 114 points, 13 touchdowns, and eight field goals over the past three games. CB Kenny Moore allows a high catch rate (77.5). But receivers gain short yards per catch (8.7) with no touchdowns.
Thielen will get his catches, and Byrce Young averaged 23.75 completions over the past four games, with receivers gaining only 9.5 yards per catch. His WR/CB matchup isn’t ideal, and his salary has finally caught up to his in-season success. He rates highly this week, and Thielen’s 2023 path gives him a chance of coming in again in Week 9.
Mike Evans, TB (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,400)
Other than Week 2 (6/171/1), Evans has only been a steady option in three (6/66/1, 5/60/1, and 6/82/1) of his seven starts. He has double-digit targets in three matchups while scoring a touchdown in five games. Evans is on pace to catch 80 balls for 1,231 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The Texans have the fourth-best defense vs. wide receivers (81/1,112/5 on 124 targets). Their higher ranking is helped by facing short pass attempts in four matchups (29, 25, 28, and 31). No wideout has gained more than 100 yards, with the best outcomes in catches and yards coming from Zay Flowers (9/78), Michael Pittman (8/56), Drake London (6/78), Chris Olave (7/96), and Adam Thielen (8/72). The Bucs would like to get Evans matched up against CB Steven Nelson (67.9% catch rate and 14.2 yards per catch), who does most of his coverage work out of the slot.
Evans earns his keep by scoring touchdowns, but he hasn’t had more than six catches in any game. The Texans’ defense played well over the last five weeks (14.4 points per game). I don’t like his high salary, but I’m willing to take him for a ride in a game stack slanted to Houston’s side.
Fourth Tier Options
Nico Collins, HOU (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,800)
The Texans struggled to get Collins rolling over his last three matchups (3/39, 4/80, and 4/30 on 16 combined targets) after posting an impact game (7/168/2) in Week 4 at home. His other elite showing (7/146/1) came in Houston. The Texans gave Collin a winning opportunity in three games (11, 9, and 9 targets), but their offense was less reliant on the pass over the last five weeks (29.4 attempts). When chasing on the scoreboard over their first two games, C.J. Stroud threw the ball 91 times with 58 completions.
Tampa struggled vs. wide receivers twice (DET – 21/255/2 and BUF – 24/249/1) over the last three weeks. Minnesota (16/242/1) and Philadelphia (15/217/1) also gained more than 200 yards from their wideouts. The Bucs slipped to 24th in wide receiver defense (102/1,317/6 on 147 targets). Four players (Justin Jefferson – 9/150, A.J. Brown – 9/131, DJ Moore – 6/104, and Amon-Ra St. Brown – 12/124/1) had winning days. Their top three cornerbacks allow receivers to catch 75.2% of their targets with five touchdowns.
I expect Collins to be more active in this matchup, and Tampa has struggled with WR1s in 2023. He hasn’t reached elite status yet, but his size and speed give him two chances (big plays and touchdowns) to pay off. For Collins to shine, both defenses in this matchup must allow more touchdowns.
D.J. Moore, CHI (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,600)
Over the last two games with Justin Fields injured, Moore caught 12 of his 15 targets for 109 yards. The downgrade at quarterback led to him gaining only 9.1 yards per catch, compared to 19.7 over his first five games (27/531/5). Moore flashed beast upside in Week 4 (8/131/1) and Week 5 (8/230/3).
Wide receivers have 100 catches for 1,142 yards and seven touchdowns on 169 targets against the Saints. They’re allowing 5.9 yards per pass attempt, with one team (TB – 18/208/2) solving their secondary with their wideouts. CB Marshon Lattimore (25/302/1 on 44 targets – per PFF) remains an above player in coverage, but Moore has the talent to beat him when facing one-on-one coverage.
The Saints’ offensive players will be chalky in this matchup, especially after scoring 38 points in Week 8. A chaser game bodes well for Moore to receive more targets. The key to his playability is the Bears’ defense getting New Orleans’s offense off the field. Tyson Bagent only has one touchdown over his first 80 pass attempts in the NFL, with no receiver gaining 20 yards. On the positive side, his salary is now in range, where Moore doesn’t need his best day to fill his salary bucket.
Deep Fliers – Jonathan Mingo and Rashod Bateman
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