Week 9 DFS: Running Back Report
Jahmyr Gibbs (29.90 fantasy points) was the highest-scoring running back in Week 8 in PPR formats, coming on the heels of another top-showing (11/68/1 with nine catches for 58 yards). Christian McCaffrey (29.80) and Gus Edwards (29.40) filled out the running back trifecta. Five other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Alvin Kamara (24.57) and Travis Etienne (23.97) averaged the most fantasy points per game in PPR formats over the past three weeks. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average over the first eight weeks:
- Christian McCaffrey (25.30)
- Travis Etienne (20.49)
- Raheem Mostert (19.64)
- Kenneth Walker (16.09)
- Zack Moss (15.65)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 9 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top-Tier Options
Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)
The excellent opportunity continued in Week 8 for Kamara. He gained 110 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches on 21 touches against the Colts. The Saints gave him the ball 125 times over his first five starts, leading to 110 yards and 7.8 catches per game. Taysom Hill sniped three rushing touchdowns over the past two weeks while also stealing 14 rushes for 81 yards.
Chicago ranks 27th in running back defense (25.54 FPPG), with most of their struggles coming over the first three games (34.50, 23.20, and 46.30 fantasy points). The Bears continue to play well vs. the run (193/630/4 – 3.3 yards per carry), but backs have 48 catches for 497 yards and five touchdowns on 61 targets.
Kamara holds his floor in most weeks due to his value in the passing game. His rising salary requires more than 32.00 fantasy points at DraftKings, but he can’t reach that level without at least one long play and a touchdown. New Orleans will get Jamaal Williams involved, and Hill has been stealing away his explosiveness. Playing well, and the Saints’ offense should score in this game.
Saquon Barkley, NYG (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,600)
The Giants’ offense has been dismal in seven of the eight games, leading them averaging only 11.9 points per game. Over the last three weeks, Barkley has been a big part of New York’s game plan (81/298 with 19 catches for 46 yards and one touchdown on 91 touches). Daniel Jones returns this week, along with LT Andrew Thomas, breathing life into all offensive players for the Giants. Barkley posted one playable game (27.20 fantasy points) in Week 2.
Las Vegas fell to 29th in running back defense (27.34 FPPG) after struggling over the past three weeks (31.80, 40.80, and 38.50 fantasy points). The Raiders allow 4.5 yards per rush, with backs scoring 11 touchdowns. Over the past two games, Chicago and Detroit rushed for 395 yards with three touchdowns. Running backs have 42 catches for 267 yards and one score on 56 targets.
With Daniel Jones back in the starting lineup, Barkley will see a drop in rushing chances. Hopefully, New York plays better offensively, creating more scoring opportunities and overall production. At his price point, the stars still have to align for him to shine to fill his salary bucket.
Mid-Tier Options
Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,500)
After eight games, Jacobs only has one game (27.90 fantasy points) worthy of his current salary. He continues to gain short yards per rush (3.1) while failing to reach 80 yards rushing in any contest. In his best three games over his last four weeks, he had gained 272 combined yards with only one score and a step back in catches (5). The Raiders will ride him hard when they have the ball. Three times this year, the Raiders’ defense was dominated in time of possession (40:04, 34:06, and 39:33), giving Jacobs fewer chances on the field.
The Giants’ defense played well over the past three weeks (34 points allowed), highlighted by their performance vs. the Bills (14 points and 297 combined yards). They allow 4.8 yards per rush, with running backs scoring nine touchdowns. New York sits 21st in running back defense (23.05 FPPG). The Dolphins’ backs (21/216/2 with three catches for 27 yards) had the most success.
Las Vegas fired their head coach, and Aidan O’Connell takes over at quarterback. This offense has much to prove despite a frontline running back and winning receiving options. The Raiders haven’t scored more than two touchdowns in a game, with only three games played at home. Based on touches (20.1 per game), Jacobs has the opportunity to produce a winning game if their young quarterback can create scoring chances.
D’Andre Swift, PHI (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,200)
Since taking over as the lead back for the Eagles, Swift scored four touchdowns in his seven starts with 705 combined yards with 27 catches on 143 touches (20.4 touches). He failed to gain more than 70 yards rushing in any of his last five games while being more active in the passing game (23/121/1). The Eagles had him on the field for 70% of their plays last week (second-highest total of the year).
Dallas has the 11th-best defense against running backs (18.24 FPPG). They struggled vs. the run in two matchups (ARI – 30/222/2 and SF – 41/170/2). The Cowboys allow 4.1 yards per rush, with backs catching 29 passes for 209 yards and one touchdown.
The Eagles’ offense picked up their scoring pace over the past two games (31 and 38), but most of their success came in the passing game (279/2 and 319/4). Swift fits well in this offense, and his ticket could come in on any Sunday. His edge over Barkley and Jacobs is salary while playing for a team that will score many more touchdowns.
Jonathan Taylor, IND (DK – $6,400/FD – $8,000)
The Colts had Taylor on the field for a season-high 61% of their plays last week, but Zack Moss beat him again in fantasy points (14.40 to 10.70) in PPR formats. Taylor ran the ball well (12/95) while failing to score. He caught one of his two targets for two yards. Over the last two weeks, Indy gave him 34 touches, leading to 217 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches.
Carolina has the second-worst defense vs. running backs (30.80 FPPG), with struggles in four matchups (44.70, 37.90, 33.90, and 49.40). Every opponent gained at least 125 combined yards from their backs, and six teams scored at least two rushing touchdowns. The Panthers allow 4.7 yards per carry, and running backs have 15 scores through seven games.
Once the Colts take the training wheels off Taylor, he’ll start producing winning days in the fantasy market. Moss played well above his expected skill set so far this year, so he does command some chances. Overall, the running backs for the Colts gained 1,022 combined yards with six touchdowns and 38 catches (22.03 FPPG). Taylor is a risk/reward player this week, with an excellent matchup on the road.
Low-Value Option
Bijan Robinson, ATL (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,100)
After short snaps (11) in Week 7 due to an illness, Robinson scored his first rushing touchdown against the Titans despite gaining 62 yards on 11 touches. The Falcons gave him five targets, but he didn’t record a catch. Robinson ranks 14th in running back scoring (108.50) in PPR formats, with his best two games (20.30 and 21.20 fantasy points) over the first two weeks of the season. Earlier in the year, Atlanta did a much better job getting him the ball in the passing game (6/27/1, 4/48, 4/27, 5/32).
Minnesota sits sixth in fantasy running back defense (17.05 FPPG), with failure in only one game (PHI – 36/224/1 with four catches for 11 yards). The Vikings allow 3.6 yards per carry. Running backs scored four touchdowns against them, with minimal damage in the passing game (32/201/1 on 34 targets).
The Falcons made a change at quarterback for Week 9, giving some hope that Atlanta can up their scoring (averaging 17.3 points per game). Robinson has a much lower salary than he did earlier in the season, and Tyler Allgeier was only on the field for 15 snaps in Week 8. Over the last six games, Allgeier gained only 2.9 yards on his 73 carries. The Falcons need to win games, and Robinson needs to be a big part of their success. I view him as a top option at running back this week.
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