Week 9 NFL Player Props
After taking Week 8 off, it’s time to get back down to business in the Week 9 NFL Player Props betting market. In Week 7, we went 4-3 (+.7 Units) and are officially 24-18 (+8.5 Units) on the season.
Fantasy football managers definitely have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 9 NFL prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.
Zach Wilson OVER 214.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Wilson may not be a great quarterback but he’s got a very favorable matchup against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that is currently allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and a whopping 311.4 passing yards per game. Even Division II QB Tyson Bagent accumulated 232 yards against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football last week. Let’s examine how the Chargers have fared against each quarterback they’ve faced to date this season:
|
PLAYER |
ATT/COMP | YARDS | TDS-INTS |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 28/45 | 465 | 3-1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/24 | 246 | 1-0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 32/50 | 367 | 3-1 |
| Aidan O’Connell | 24/39 | 238 | 0-1 |
| Dak Prescott | 21/30 | 272 | 1-0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 32/42 | 424 | 4-1 |
| Tyson Bagent | 25/37 | 232 | 0-2 |
As you can see, every single quarterback the Chargers have faced has surpassed Wilson’s prop line in Week 9. Although Wilson started the season slow after filling in for the injured Aaron Rodgers, he has surpassed this line in two of his previous four contests. And those were against much superior defenses.
Given that New York is expected to fall behind in this one against a very high-powered offense, the Jets likely won’t be able to lean on the ground-and-pound game. After last week, they may opt to look for Breece Hall on short passes as Hall was New York’s leading receiver in the Jets’ comeback victory over the New York Giants in Week 8.
Plus, Wilson has Garrett Wilson at his disposal, who despite the ebbs and flows of his season, has shown flashes of brilliance and could emerge as a top-five wideout with a better signal caller. If the Jets want to keep pace with the Chargers this week, Wilson is going to have to let it fly. Take the Over.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 26.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Mahomes has eclipsed this line in six of his eight games this season. Although he failed to do so last week against the Denver Broncos, it’s important to note that he wasn’t 100% healthy. Not to mention, the Chiefs had to air it out after falling into a large deficit early. Heading into Week 9, the Chiefs are indicating that Mahomes is back to full strength.
With a tough matchup against the Dolphins on the horizon, the Chiefs may have to lean on Mahomes’ scrambling ability, especially given Miami’s propensity for stopping the run lately. Mahomes is averaging 29.3 rushing yards per game this season. The line is fair and at close to even odds, this seems like a good investment.
Alvin Kamara OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
No team has allowed more receiving yards to opposing running backs than the Chicago Bears, whom Alvin Kamara is set to face in Week 9. Although the Bears are decent against the rush, they have allowed a league-leading 497 receiving yards to running backs. However, there is some blowout potential with rookie Tyson Bagent poised to make his third start for the injured Justin Fields, the Saints aren’t a high-powered offense so I wouldn’t be too worried about them phasing Kamara out of the game plan.
Also, the Saints have struggled to get much going on the ground. Plus, Kamara has surpassed this line in his last three contests. Considering New Orleans’ struggles running the football and the fact that Chicago has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry, I’m anticipating a bunch of dump-off passes from Derek Carr to Kamara. The Saints will likely counter their ineffective run game with screen passes and short-to-intermediate routes for their star running backs.
On the season, Kamara is averaging eight receptions per game for 45.6 yards. And over his last two outings, he’s averaging 71 receiving yards per game. Look for that trend to continue in Week 9.
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 85.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
After a somewhat slow start to the season due to Joe Burrow’s calf injury, Chase has really turned it on as of late, including in Week 8 when Tee Higgins returned from his injury. Since Week 3, Chase is averaging 13.6 targets per game and has seen double-digit looks in four of his previous five contests. The All-Pro wideout is currently demanding a whopping 33.5% target share as the Bengals prepare for a tough matchup against the Buffalo Bills after dispatching the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday. Let’s take a look at Chase’s previous five contests:
|
WEEK (OPP) |
REC | TAR | YARDS | TDS |
| 3 (LAR) | 12 | 15 | 141 | 0 |
| 4 (TEN) | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| 5 (ARI) | 15 | 19 | 192 | 3 |
| 6 (SEA) | 6 | 13 | 80 | 0 |
| 8 (SF) | 10 | 12 | 100 | 1 |
The Bills rank in the middle of the pack against opposing wideouts and are allowing 152.1 yards per game to the position group. If the Bengals are going to keep pace with Josh Allen, Burrow is going to zone in on his go-to target. Considering Chase’s recent form, look for Chase to continue to produce and top 86 yards in a clash between two of the AFC’s finest!
Marquez Valdes-Scantling OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
MVS isn’t a big name but he’s the type of player that can surpass his prop line with one big catch due to his big-play ability. Four of his 12 receptions this season have produced 20+ yards. Surprisingly, he is currently leading Kansas City’s receivers in snap percentage. And, over the last two weeks, the veteran has accumulated five receptions for 111 yards on nine targets.
The Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Denver Broncos and get a much tougher test Sunday morning in Germany against the high-octane Miami Dolphins. This should be a high-scoring affair so Mahomes is going to have to throw the ball a good amount to keep pace with Miami’s offense.
Meanwhile, Miami is likely going to focus on Travis Kelce, which should allow Valdes-Scantling to break free for at least one chunk play downfield. All we need is one of those for this prop to cash. Take the Over against a Dolphins secondary that is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season.
T.J. Hockenson OVER 5.5 Receptions (-115)
The last time we played this prop, it was money in the bank so we’re going back to the well. Even with Kirk Cousins out for the season, Hockenson should continue to dominate the target share with Justin Jefferson still sidelined. Although the Vikes traded for Joshua Dobbs, rookie Jaren Hall will be getting his first start of the season. He targetted Hockenson twice on his four attempts at the end of Minnesota’s Week 8 matchup.
Atlanta’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack against opposing defenses in terms of fantasy points per game. But, because they use two-high coverages at the third-highest rate outside of the red zone, Hock should be able to find tons of open seams across the middle of the field. Not to mention, Hockenson is currently seeing a team-high 25% target share against two-high coverages and that number has ballooned to 30% with Jefferson out of the lineup.
Although the Vikings may employ a more balanced offense than usual without Captain Kirk, Hall’s lack of arm strength is actually going to be beneficial for Hockenson. Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn’s skillsets are perfect for Cousins but we could see a lot of short passes from Hall, which would favor the big tight end. Smash the Over!
