Week 9 NFL Quarterback Report
Last week, five quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points, with Sam Howell (35.95) leading the way. Dak Prescott (32.10) and Joe Burrow (30.45) had correction games, lifting them to 14th and 20th in the quarterback rankings. Josh Allen (33.30) and Jalen Hurts (31.55) produced top-tier stats for the second consecutive week. Will Levis put his name on the fantasy map after an impact showing (249/4) in his first career NFL start. Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after eight weeks by scoring average in four-point passing touchdown leagues:
- Josh Allen (27.14)
- Jalen Hurts (26.50)
- Justin Herbert (24.66)
- Patrick Mahomes (23.41)
- Tua Tagovailoa (23.34).
Eleven quarterbacks are averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points per game.
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 9 NFL Quarterback Report.
Top Shelf Options
QB #4: Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,000)
Over the last six games, Hurts averaged 331 combined yards with strength in his completion rate (67.7) and yards per pass attempt (7.9). His lacking area was passing touchdowns before gaining momentum in this area over his last two starts (2 and 4). He is on pace to gain 5,143 yards with 40 touchdowns. Last season, Hurts had a quiet game (182/2) at home vs. Dallas while sitting out his road matchup.
The Cowboys have the third-best quarterback defense (16.43 FPPG), with one team (SF – 252/4) having success. Their pass rush (18 sacks) hasn’t been imposing over the last five matchups (2, 2, 1, 1, and 2). But they’ve created 16 turnovers on the season, with five leading to touchdowns. Dallas started the year by facing four below-par offenses (NYG, NYJ, ARI, and NE). However, they somehow lost to the Cardinals.
Hurts rides only as high as A.J. Brown can take him. He has strength in his secondary receiving options and a high floor scoring rushing touchdowns, but their success scoring touchdowns (21 over 85 possessions – 24.7%) is below their path in 2022 (59 over 186 possessions – 31.7%). This matchup isn’t ideal, but Hurts has the offensive tools to shine in this against-the-grain matchup.
QB #3: Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,600)
The Cardinals’ defense did a surprising job defending Jackson in Week 8, leading to 174 combined yards with one touchdown. He gained a season-low 5.8 yards per pass attempt with minimal room in the run game (3.4 yards per carry). His completion rate (66.7) graded well. But the Ravens attempted only 27 passes (30 and 27 over the previous two games). Jackson posted more than 30.00 fantasy points (31.20, 31.00, and 38.45), with two coming in his last two starts.
Seattle is just below league-average defending quarterbacks (18th – 19.55 FPPG) while trending up over the last four weeks (13.75, 16.65, 17.80, and 16.55). The defense struggled in pass coverage over their first three games (1,018 yards), with the Lions (323/3) and Panthers (361/2) having the most success. The Seahawks improved their pass rush over the last four matchups (22 sacks), with half of their output coming against the Giants. Seattle allowed only 50 points over the past four games.
Jackson appears to have a below-par matchup, along with Seattle’s offense, suggesting a lower-scoring game (over/under – 43.5). I sense that Rashod Batemon is trending in the right direction. And Zay Flowers, paired with Mark Andrews, gives Baltimore enough firepower to move the ball via the pass in this matchup. In addition, Jackson has a high floor in the run game. I have a feeling this game is higher scoring than expected.
Mid-Tier Options
QB #7: C.J. Stroud, HOU (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,000)
From Week 2 to Week 4, Stroud posted winning days in fantasy points (26.30, 23.40, and 24.90) while averaging 334 yards with two scores in each matchup. His production regressed over the past three weeks (251/1, 201/2, and 153/1), making him a losing investment in the DFS market. He attempted 30 passes or fewer in four of his last five starts after starting the season with 91 combined passes against Baltimore and Indianapolis. The Texans struggle to run the ball (3.3 yards per carry), with two of their three rushing touchdowns coming last week via a fullback and quarterback.
Tampa Bay slipped to 26th in quarterback defense (21.34 FPPG) after getting betting beat by Josh Allen (365/3) in Week 8. Three teams have passed for more than 300 yards, and their defense allowed four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. Over the past three weeks, quarterbacks gained 1,008 yards with six touchdowns. The Bucs struggled to defend wideouts in four matchups (16/242/1, 15/217/1, 21/255/2, and 24/249/1).
Stroud looks poised to post an uptick game, and Tampa doesn’t have a great pass rush (18 sacks). His receiving corps offers sneaky upside, pointing 300 yards passing with at least two touchdowns. The Buccaneers have yet to allow more than 25 points or three touchdowns in a game. The key for Stroud in Week 9 is patience and moving the chains with short passes.
QB #9: Geno Smith, SEA (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,600)
The fantasy stars haven’t aligned for Smith so far in 2023. He sits 19th in quarterback scoring (119.85 fantasy points) with fewer than 20.00 fantasy points in six of his seven starts. His best showing came in Week 2 (348/2) against the Lions. Over his last five games, Smith has six touchdowns and six interceptions. Seven games into 2023, he is well behind last year’s results in touchdowns (30 – on pace for 22 scores).
The Ravens lead the NFL in quarterback defense (14.64 FPPG), but they come off their worst game (244/3) vs. the Cardinals. Quarterbacks gain only 5.4 yards per pass attempt with only six passing touchdowns allowed. Baltimore does have a top pass rush (31 sacks), with strength in their run defense (193/799/3 – 4.1 yards per rush).
The Seahawks have a talented group of wide receivers, but they’ve yet to hit their stride as a group (96/1,128/9 on 145 targets). Twice (16/254 and 18/207) over the last three games, Seattle gained more than 200 yards from their wideouts with four scores over the past two weeks. Over the previous five games, some of the Ravens’ coverage stats are masked by a favorable schedule (IND, PIT, TEN, and ARI). I don’t expect Smith to be popular in Week 9, but he may surprise.
Highest Value Options
SHAWN’S “SAVE WEEK 9 QB2” is…
QB #12: Taylor Heinicke, ATL (DK – $5,000/FD – $7,200)
He’s QB12 this week, a borderline QB1 when you need a solid spot start to hold down the fort.
Over the past two seasons with Washington, Heinicke went 12-11-1 with 34 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. He failed to pass for more than 280 in any game in 2022, with his best value coming in two early matchups (342/2 and 333/3) the previous season. The Falcons’ passed the ball well in their last two home games (351/1 and 307/2), but they scored only 37 combined points. Their offense hasn’t scored more than 25 points or three touchdowns in any game this year.
Minnesota’s defense played well over their last three matchups (13, 17, and 10 points allowed), helping the Vikings to three consecutive wins. Their success in four of their past five games vs. quarterbacks (CAR – 214/0, CHI – 191/1, SF – 291/1, and GB – 263/1) improved them to 22nd in quarterback defense. Minnesota has 23 sacks over eight games, with quarterbacks gaining 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The Chargers (465/4) had the most success against the Vikings.
The availability of Drake London (groin) for this week’s matchup be critical for the playability of Heinicke. He needs at least 20.00 fantasy points to be an option in the DFS market in Week 9, requiring about 240 passing yards and two scores with some help in rushing yards.
QB #14: Bryce Young, CAR (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,900)
If Drake London doesn’t play, you can consider Bryce Young your fall back play. Young comes off his best game in yards per pass attempt (7.6), highlighted by his first completion of 40 yards or more. Over his last two starts, six of his 45 completions gained at least 20 yards. He is willing to take what a defense gives him, supported by his streak of 22 completions or more in five consecutive games. His best and only playable fantasy output came in Week 5 (251/3). Carolina did post a winning day by Andy Dalton (372/2) in Week 2, thanks to him attempting 58 passes.
The Colts played six high-scoring games (31-21, 31-20, 29-23, 37-20, 39-38, and 38-27) in 2023, with five of those outcomes coming at home. Surprisingly, they rank 21st in quarterback defense (19.99 FPPG) while allowing the most points (229) in the NFL. Three teams passed for more than 300 yards (HOU – 384/2, LAR – 319/1, and NO – 354/2). Over the past three weeks, Indy gave up 21 scores (13 touchdowns and eight field goals) over 42 possessions.
Despite their defensive failures, Indianapolis is a three-point favorite, and they will try to slow down the clock with the run vs. a porous Carolina rushing defense (208/976/14 – 4.7 yards per rush). Young has one top-tier receiving option (Adam Thielen – 57/581/4), but he can’t reach an impact showing without a second receiver stepping forward. His salary and matchup are two plusses, so keep an open mind here.
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