Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8

We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a win would go a long way toward improving the postseason hopes for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.

Speaking of the Bills, sitting at a mediocre 4-3 is new territory for Sean McDermott’s squad. Despite being an AFC-best +80 in points differential, Buffalo’s defense has fallen off. Also, the Bills sit at 0-2 on the road against their AFC East rivals. Returning home to Highmark Stadium in primetime could be just what the doctor ordered.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have exceeded most expectations, even after a second consecutive home loss. The biggest problem for Todd Bowles’s team appears to be offense. After scoring 20-plus in three games to open the season 3-1, Tampa has one touchdown in their last two outings.

That’s not going to cut it against a Buffalo team that ranks third in the NFL in scoring.

Therefore, the Bills are favored by 8.5 points, and the total slipped by one point to 42.5.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	26	15	29	22	26
Buffalo Bills	5	6	14	4	3

Both teams are far better at passing than running. However, the Bills have a distinct advantage in scoring, big plays, and efficiency. It’s on the other side of the ball where these two are much more evenly matched.

Tampa Bay ranks 11th in defense and sixth in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Bills have slipped to 22nd in defense but rank fifth in points surrendered. That explains the modest total for this game.

For the Buccaneers to pull the upset, they’ll have to step up offensively. Tampa has mustered a -13.83 expected points differential during their current two-game slide. That’s not the way to challenge a powerful Buffalo team that has won 15 of their last 18 home games.

The Bills have lost two of their last three games. Turnovers have played a big part in that, with Buffalo having two giveaways in each of their last three contests. Cleaning the mistakes and special teams’ gaffs is paramount for McDermott and company to keep the Bills in AFC East contention.

However, it’s hard to see Tampa winning this game without forcing those errors.

Tampa Bay Offense

The Bucs got off to a 3-1 start thanks to Baker Mayfield completing 70% of his passes and boasting a 7-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. Since then, Mayfield dipped to a 58.2% completion rate with one TD pass and two picks.

Facing a Buffalo stop unit that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks is not a good spot for Mayfield of the Tampa offense. That makes Mayfield a suboptimal Superflex play in a week with no byes.

Volume hasn’t been a concern for Rachaad White, who is the only RB in the NFL to exceed a 70% snap share in every game. However, White is only averaging 3.2 yards per carry and produced one touchdown all season. Buffalo has been vulnerable to running backs. Particularly through the air, where they’ve allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (303).

Mayfield’s regression has harmed the wide receivers. After scoring 17-plus PPR points in his first three games, Mike Evans has single-digit outings in two of three. However, half of Evans’ routes have come on the left perimeter. He’ll face a positive matchup against Buffalo RCB Christian Benford. Evans is a solid WR2 option.

Chris Godwin only occupies the slot 37% of the time. Trey Palmer (55% slot rate) leads the team. However, Godwin has 20 receptions in his last three games and looks like a solid WR3 against a Buffalo defense surrendering 31.4 PPR points per game to opposing wideouts. Palmer is a boom-or-bust play facing Taron Johnson in Buffalo’s zone coverage. Additionally, Godwin is dealing with a neck injury and is listed as questionable.

Tight end Cade Otton leads all NFL tight ends with a 96.6% snap rate. But, Otton ranks 23rd with an 11.7% target share and 24th in fantasy scoring. The Bills have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, so Otton is nothing more than a middling TE2.

Buffalo Offense

Despite Josh Allen entering Week 8 as the overall fantasy QB1, something seems off. Allen has 19 total touchdowns compared to 21 through seven games last season. However, the biggest change has been vis his legs. The Bills have made a concerted effort to cut back on the punishing hits their signal caller takes. That’s caused Allen’s rushing yards to dip from 306 through seven games in 2022 to 148 this season.

Only six teams have allowed fewer rushing yards to quarterbacks than the Buccaneers, so don’t expect a sudden change. However, has allowed three QB rushing scores and is a bottom-10 overall defense against the position. Also, the Bucs blitz a ton, which is not a tactic that works well versus Allen, who is a locked-in top-3 option in all formats and a good choice in DFS captain’s spots.

Buffalo ranks 14th in rushing but uses a committee approach. James Cook leads the way with 34.4% of the rushes. Cook is averaging a healthy 4.8 yards per tote and ranks sixth among all running backs with 186 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has yet to allow an RB rushing score all season and the only score through the air came back in Week 1. This is a fairly tough matchup for Cook, making him a modest RB2.

Latavius Murray played 45% of the snaps last week. However, a negative game script led to Murray only accumulating six touches. He is the favorite to get any short-yardage RB carries, so Murray has some value as a flex play or as a low-cost DFS pivot option.

Tampa Bay’s defense employs zone coverage 62% of the time. The overall WR2, Stefon Diggs will be utilized all over the field that has already allowed four 100-plus yard outings to WR1s so far this season. Expect Diggs to make that five.

Things are less certain for Gabe Davis, who has posted back-to-back outings with fewer than six fantasy points. However, Davis does line up on the left 43% of the time and the Buccaneers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to that spot in 2023. This looks like a good spot for Davis to bust out of his slump with a TD grab.

Buffalo rotates their ancillary wideouts. Trent Sherfield has played the most snaps, but Deonte Harty has the highest target rate. None of the collection is more than a DFS dart throw.

Dawson Knox is hurt, so Dalton Kincaid may see more in-line reps. Kincaid is coming off his best game on Sunday against the Patriots. Tampa has yet to allow a touchdown this season to a tight end, so view Kincaid as a middle-of-the-pack TE2.

Prediction & Best Bet

The Saints had a shot last week but failed to find a way to win. That was my fourth consecutive loss after starting 3-0. Be warned, I’m ice cold, so best to fade this Best Bet unit further notice.

On initial look, this looks like an easy win for the Bills. Not only are the Bucs scuffling to score, but Buffalo is going to want to right the ship after Sunday’s poor showing in New England.

Tampa has only covered five games dating back to the beginning of the 2022 season. And a lot of those struggles have come from lack of scoring. The UNDER has hit in eight of Tampa’s last 10 away games, including 2-0 so far in 2023.

After struggling to score in their last two games, traveling on short rest to face a motivated Buffalo defense that has underperformed is not a ‘get right’ spot.

While there are some strong leanings on the under, I just don’t see the Buccaneers being able to mount enough offense to hang around this game. The Bills are in a good spot to rebound after playing the hated Patriots, and Josh Allen has a sparkling ATS record coming off of a defeat.

Best Bet: Bills -8.5

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