Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report
The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week 6 (34.20). Only three other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points – Travis Etienne (23.30), Kyren Williams (21.80), and Breece Hall (20.30). The running back pool had more of a steady feel last week as 21 players finished with 10.00 to 19.50 fantasy points.
Only Christian McCaffrey (24.83) and Rahaam Mostert (23.40) are the only running backs averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points over the first six weeks. Travis Etienne (19.22), Kyren Williams (18.52), and Kenneth Walker (18.30) round out the top five backs in scoring average in PPR formats.
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Austin Ekeler, LAC (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,400)
In Week 1, Ekeler posted a winning game (164 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches on 20 touches) despite only being on the field for 48% of the Chargers’ snaps due to a hamstring injury. After missing three games, he struggled to make an impact against the Cowboys (62 yards with four catches on 18 chances). Ekeler finished with 68% of LA’s snaps. In 2022, he gained 194 combined yards with one touchdown and 11 catches in two games against Kansas City.
The Chiefs allowed fewer than 18.00 fantasy points to running backs over their last five games, moving them to fifth in defense vs. backs (15.43 FPPG). Running backs gain 4.5 yards per rush while scoring only one touchdown with 26 catches for 152 yards and one score on 30 targets. They’ve faced four teams (CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) with questionable play from their lead running back.
Last season, the Chargers’ running backs had 140 catches for 911 yards and seven touchdowns on 179 targets. The change at offensive coordinator has led to a shortfall in this area (14/117/0 on 20 targets) over their first five games. Ekeler offers value on all three downs. But he isn’t in form to support his salary. More of a gamble in Week 7 based on the play of the Chargers’ offense and their matchup.
Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000)
Touchdowns (9) have been challenging for the Raiders’ offense over their first six games. Their offense has turned the ball over 12 times while creating small running lanes (3.0 yards per rush) for their star running back. They’ve yet to rush for more than 100 yards in a game while having a reasonable floor in catches (35) and receiving yards (279). Jacobs averages 22.0 touches a game.
Chicago ranks 28th defending running backs (27.53 FPPG). Despite the appearance of weakness, the Bears played better vs. backs over their last two matchups (WAS – 10/29 with eight catches for 97 yards and MIN – 22/46 with five catches for 35 yards). They allow 3.5 yards per rush, with more risk in the passing game (36/366/4 on 45 targets).
With Jimmy Garoppolo out and Chicago playing with a backup quarterback, Vegas set the game total at 37.5. Jacobs should be active again this week, with a chance at a possible score. But his ceiling is limited to the Raiders’ ability to move the ball. His opportunity gives him a chance. However, Las Vegas must play a lot better offensively for the lead running back to shine.
Mid-Tier Options
Kenneth Walker, SEA (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,800)
Daily gamers will run to the window and shove all in on Walker this week as he looks like the best running back option on the main state on Sunday. He has a touchdown in four consecutive starts (six total), with his best production (156 combined yards with two touchdowns and three catches) coming at home in Week 3. The Seahawks gave him a minimum of 16 touches in each of his first five games. Last year, Walker played well in both matchups (21/97/1 with two catches for 13 yards and 26/109/2 with three catches for 20 yards) against the Cardinals.
Arizona fell to 30th defending running backs (28.28 FPPG), with one disaster showing (SF – 207 combined yards with five touchdowns and nine catches). Their opponents average 29.5 rushing attempts, with a floor of 27 carries. They allow 4.5 yards per rush, with running backs scored nine times (four via a pass). Their defense allowed 18 touchdowns and 12 field goals on 61 possessions.
Walker has multiple touchdown upside, with an excellent chance of gaining more than 100 rushing yards. Zach Charbonnet picked up a hamstring issue in practice this week, suggesting an increased role for Walker in this matchup. The Seahawks have the receiving talent to move the ball but tend to finish drives with the run. In their last home matchup against Carolina, Seattle scored five field goals and three touchdowns over their 13 possessions. I expect him to be a high percentage own. But I won’t try to beat this free square.
Bijan Robinson, ATL (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,500)
Six games into his NFL career, Robinson hasn’t done enough to support his salaries in the DFS market. His high output in fantasy points (21.20) in PPR formats came in Week 2. Also, he still doesn’t have a rushing touchdown. The Falcons had him on the field for 77% of their plays in Week 6. But he posted his third short outing (10.00, 12.80, and 13.00) over the past month. His floor has been 14 touches while averaging 17.7 chances a game. Robinson is on pace to gain 1,671 yards with six touchdowns and 74 catches. He checks two boxes (yards and catches) but can’t pay off in the daily space without scoring a touchdown.
Tampa Bay continues to play better than expected on defense, leading to eight touchdowns allowed with short yards per rush (3.7) and per pass attempt (6.8). The Eagles ran wild on the Bucs in Week 3 (40/201/1), and two offenses had success passing the ball (MIN – 344/2 and DET – 353/2). The Saints’ running backs had 15 catches in Week 4. But they gained only 43 yards on 17 targets.
Robinson is a stud who lacks a clean opportunity for high-volume touches. And Tyler Allgeier may or may not be their Falcons’ goal-line back. His matchup looks questionable, and Desmond Ridder has to prove himself on the road passing the ball. Not ideal, but Robinson is the player with the talent to post a difference-maker game on any given Sunday.
Low-Value Options
Isiah Pacheco, KC (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,400)
Over the past month, Pacheco averaged 19.75 touches, leading to 398 combined yards with three touchdowns and 12 catches. He had a career-high six catches in Week 6 and his first 100-yard rushing game (20/115/1) in Week 4. Last week, Kansas City had him on the field for 63% of their plays, most of the season. The Chiefs have a much better defense in 2023, inviting more rushing attempts. In his best matchup vs. the Chargers last season, Pacheco rushed for 107 yards on 15 carries.
Los Angeles ranks 26th defending running backs (24.40 FPPG), with the most struggles coming in two games (TEN – 33/129/1 with six catches for 21 yards and LV – 23/73/1 with 11 catches for 107 yards). They’ve allowed six rushing touchdowns (three by quarterbacks). The Chargers give up 8.5 yards per pass attempt, a signal that Patrick Mahomes should move the ball well and create scoring chances.
Pacheco needs to score 24.00 fantasy points to fill his salary bucket, requiring 100+ rushing yards with some help in catches and at least one touchdown. In the right offense with a winnable matchup. However, the Chiefs will pass the ball on many plays at the goal line.
Rachaad White, TB (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,100)
Finding outs in the running back position in Week 7 looks challenging. Six teams are on a bye and some of the better offenses in the league not playing on the main slate on Sunday. Tampa continues to have White on the field for a high percentage of plays (79% in Week 7 and 77.3% on the year). His struggles last week (38 yards and three catches) dropped him to 21st in running back scoring (54.00) in PPR formats. His win rate (21.30 fantasy points) sits at 20%, based on his failure games (6.90, 8.20, 10.80, and 6.80 fantasy points).
The Falcons have the third-best defense against running backs (14.42 FPPG). They allow 3.7 yards per rush, with running backs scoring one touchdown (receiving). Atlanta has minimized the damage in catches (15) and receiving yards (104). The Falcons played Green Bay without Aaron Jones, and David Montgomery didn’t play when they faced the Lions. Their defense has faced four first-year starting quarterbacks (Bryce Young, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and Sam Howell), with four of their six matchups coming at home.
The play on White in Week 7 is his volume of touches and his floor in pass catches (averaging 3.2 passes per game). He needs 21.00 fantasy points to be the mix at RB2, a total only seven running backs reached over the past two weeks. Bet on 15 fantasy points and hope Tampa creates at least one scoring chance for BAMF.
Trick or Treat Option
Zach Evans, LAR (DK – $4,000/FD – $4,800)
Over the first six weeks, the Rams’ running backs rushed for 598 yards and six touchdowns on 142 carries while catching 17 of their 28 targets for 123 yards and one touchdown (21.85 FPPG). Evans moves to RB1 status for Los Angeles in Week 7 due to injuries to Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers. Over three seasons at Ole Miss, Evans gained 2,324 yards with 20 touchdowns and 30 catches on 320 touches. His running style invites homerun ability while also offering power.
The Steelers struggled vs. running back over the first two weeks (26.90 and 36.60 fantasy points). But they played much better over the past three matchups (14.60, 21.10, and 18.30). Pittsburgh ranks 21st in running back defense (23.50 FPPG). Their run defense had massive issues with the 49ers (34/188/1) and Browns (35/198/1) while allowing 4.8 yards per rush on the season.
Rarely in the daily market will DFS players find a bottom-tier running back with a starting opportunity. Evans will be rostered on many teams due to his salary. If the shoe fits your roster structure, take a shot. In most cases, these types of investments end up being traps.
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