Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report
Only two tight ends (Travis Kelce – 9/124 and Dalton Schultz – 4/61/1) scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in Week 7. The Falcons’ tight ends continue to produce winning stats over the past two weeks (Kyle Pitts – 7/87 and 4/43/1 ~ Jonnu Smith – 6/67 and 4/36/1), pushing them to the top 12 in tight end scoring for the season. Ten tight ends scored between 10.00 and 15.00 fantasy points.
Here’s a look at the top five tight ends after six weeks:
- Travis Kelce (88.60)
- Sam LaPorta (79.50)
- T.J. Hockenson (77.40)
- Mark Andrews (71.40)
- Cole Kmet (67.10)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 7 DFS: QB Report.
Top Tier Options
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,500)
Despite missing one game and playing through some injuries, Kelce regains the top-scoring seat at tight end heading into Week 7. He has a floor of nine targets on four starts while gaining momentum over his last two matchups (10/67/1 and 9/124). The Chiefs only had him on the field for 59% and 69% of their plays over this span (66.4% for the season – 79.8% in 2022). Last year, Kelce had one impact game (6/115/3) against the Chargers on the road (5/51 at home). Also, that theme was the same in 2021 (10/191/2 @ LAC – 7/104 in KC).
Los Angeles ranks 10th in tight end defense (19/187/1 on 29 targets) while facing four opponents with low-ranking options (MIA – 3/44, TEN – 4/35, LV – 1/11, and DAL – 1/15). The Chargers did have issues covering T.J. Hockenson (8/78) and the Vikings’ tight ends (10/82/1 on 13 targets) in Week 3.
Kelce hasn’t delivered a game that was three times his current salary at DraftKings in 2023 (24.20, 33.50, and 35.50 last season). The latter two outcomes are needed to fill his salary bucket in Week 7. His path isn’t far off from an 8/100/2 game. Keep an open mind about playing him in the DFS market.
Mid-Tier Options
Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,900)
The Ravens have yet to play in a high-scoring back-and-forth game in 2023. That has led to Andrews being more steady than explosive over five starts. He has between four and six catches in all five games, averaging 59 yards and 6.8 targets. His best showing came in Week 4 (5/80/2) at home vs. a good Browns’ defense. When at his best in 2022, Andrews delivered five winning games (9/104/1, 8/89/2, 8/89/1, 7/106/1, and 9/100) for his salary level.
Detroit allowed more than 15.00 fantasy points to tight ends in four contests (15.30, 22.20, 19.80, and 16.00). Overall, the Lions rank 28th in tight end defense (39/376/2 on 52 targets). They haven’t faced a top tight end all year (Travis Kelce didn’t play in Week 1). No tight end gained more than 60 yards receiving. However, the Falcons’ tight ends combined for 11 catches for 88 yards on 18 targets in Week 3.
The over/under for this game is 44, painting a 24-20 win for the Ravens. Detroit has an improving defense. But three games have resulted in high-scoring affairs (68, 54, and 66 points) at home. Andrews falls almost into a must-play for me in Week 7, and I sense Lamar Jackson is my top pony at quarterback. I expect him to finish with a season-high in catches and receiving yards with at least one score.
Sam LaPorta, DET (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,500)
Maybe the calf issue for LaPorta in Week 6 should have been a tell for an uptick game for Amon-Ra St. Brown (12/124/1 on 15 targets). The Lions had him on the field for 83% of their snaps, falling in line with his playing time over his previous five games. LaPorta has been at his best at home (5/63, 8/84/1, and 3/47/2). Even with success, he had short targets in four contests (5, 6, 5, and 4). Detroit did look his way 11 times vs. Tampa (4/36), matching his season high.
Baltimore comes into Week 7 with the league’s best tight end defense (22/151 on 36 targets). Their schedule (HOU – 3/15, CIN – 2/20, IND – 3/20, CLE – 8/54, PIT – 3/23, and TEN – 3/29) has been favorable in this area over the first six weeks. Baltimore has 24 sacks, requiring tight end blocking help on more plays.
LaPorta remains the second option in the passing game for Jared Goff. This matchup isn’t ideal, but the Ravens will slow down the run while having risk in the secondary vs. the pass. Only a flier for me in some sort of game stack.
Darren Waller, NYG (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,000)
Six games into his career with the Giants, Waller has 28 catches for 282 yards on 41 targets, putting him on a path to 80 catches for 799 yards. His high output (8/86) came in Week 5 with one other active game (6/76). Waller can’t reach playable stats without a touchdown and better offensive play by the Giants and their offensive line.
Washington is about league-average defending tight ends (29/223/3 on 41 targets) while showing more risk over the past two games (CHI – 7/52/1 and ATL – 9/88/2). The Commanders’ defense allowed 144 points over four games (33, 37, 34, and 40) from Week 2 to Week 5.
The key to Waller in this matchup is a longer passing window for New York and Daniel Jones returning to the starting lineup. In his first two home games (3/36 and 3/21 on eight combined targets), New York allowed 18 sacks, leading to only three points scored. Waller fits the price range to offer a high floor and the explosiveness to be a difference-maker if game flow gives him a winning opportunity.
Low-Value Option
Kyle Pitts, ATL (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,600)
Pitts has a two-game winning streak (7/87 and 4/43/1) in relationship to his lower salary in the DFS market. He’s posted more than four times his salary over this stretch while helping two daily gamers win one million dollars in the Millionaire Makers at DraftKings in Week 6. Pitts is now on pace to catch 62 passes for 711 yards and three touchdowns despite being on the field for 63.2% of the Falcons’ snaps.
Tampa Bay sits 13th in fantasy tight end defense (27/202/42) while facing T.J. Hockenson (8/35), Cole Kmet (4/38), Dallas Goedert (5/41), Taysom Hill (1/7), and Sam LaPorta (4/36). The Bucs haven’t allowed more than two touchdowns in any matchup this year, with quarterbacks gaining 6.8 yards per pass attempt.
The tight end position has been active in Atlanta’s offense over the past four games (11/88, 8/116, 14/176, and 9/88/2). Over this stretch, Jonnu Smith (21/235/1) has outplayed Pitts (18/192/1), with both players combining for 56 targets (14 per game). An interesting option as Pitts is trending up, and Atlanta will throw the ball to win games.
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