Week 4 DFS: Tight End Report
Heading into Week 4, there have been 25 touchdowns scored by tight ends. Donald Parham leads the way with three scores despite only having six catches for 32 on seven targets on the season. He’s been on the field for about 50% of the Chargers’ snaps. T.J. Hockenson leads tight ends in targets (28), followed by Sam LaPorta (22).
In Week 3, only LaPorta (22.40) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats, thanks to a 45-yard touchdown. Nine tight ends finished between 10.90 and 19.90 fantasy points. Only two tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in a week.
Here are the top five tight ends after three weeks:
- T.J. Hockenson (51.90)
- Sam LaPorta (42.60)
- Hunter Henry (37.50)
- Evan Engram (35.30)
- Travis Kelce (32.50)
These are the only tight ends averaging more than 10.00 fantasy points per week.
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 4 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 4 DFS: QB Report and RB Report.
Top Tier Options
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,800)
After three games, Kelce averaged 16.25 FPPG in PPR formats in PPR formats over his two starts. Last year, his season average was 18.88 fantasy points. That puts him about 14% behind his pace in 2022. The Chiefs had Kelce on the field for 61% of their plays last week due to a blowout game, down from 64% in Week 2. On the positive side, his light workload did make him look swifter versus the Bears. Kelce has done more of his work close to the line of scrimmage (8.6 yards per catch – 12.2 in 2022 and 12.7 in his career before this season). Patrick Mahomes looked his way 8.5 times a game in his two starts.
The Jets fell to 30th in tight end defense (16.97 FPPG) after getting beat by New England’s tight ends in Week 3 (5/108/1). Most of the damage came on a broken play touchdown (58 yards) to the Patriots’ third tight end (Pharaoh Brown – 2/71/1). Tight ends have 16 catches for 169 yards and three touchdowns on 21 targets against New York.
Kelce remains an edge at tight end due to his upside potential. But it does come with a price in the DFS market due to his high salary. He must score 30.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to be viable. That’s an outcome Kelce reached twice in 2022 (33.50 and 35.50). I don’t see the Jets pushing the envelope on the scoreboard, costing Kelce the follow-through needed to be an edge in the daily games in Week 4.
George Kittle, SF (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,300)
The 49ers gave Kittle a limited opportunity over the first two games (nine combined targets), leading to two dull showings (3/19 and 3/30). With Brandon Aiyuk out of the lineup in Week 3, he posted an excellent game (7/90 on nine targets) while falling a touchdown short of filling his current salary bucket. Kittle may have scored early in the game, but he fell after releasing from his block at the goal line.
Arizona comes off a big win against the Cowboys after two tight losses to the Giants (28-31) and Commanders (16-20). They came into 2023 with the lowest over/under total for wins (3.5) in the league. Tight ends have 17 catches for 187 yards on 27 targets vs. the Cardinals. In 2022, they finished with the league’s worst tight end defense (101/1,084/11 on 129 targets). That was highlighted by two disaster games (KC – 10/132/1 and SEA – 10/126). The 49ers scored four touchdowns via Kittle (9/113/4 on 12 targets) over two matchups.
Over his last three starts against Arizona, Kittle has 15 catches for 214 yards and five touchdowns on 20 targets. His target number to pay off this week is 20.50 fantasy points, which he has reached twice in his recent history (21.10, 24.40, and 18.90). Kittle looks due to score, and this matchup has plenty of upside. However, the 49ers may not need to throw more than 30 passes to win.
Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,700)
The Colts did a good job taking Andrews away from Lamar Jackson in Week 3, leading to four catches for 35 yards on five targets. Baltimore had him on the field for a season-high 82% of his plays. In 2021, he had a monster showing (11/115/1) in Cleveland while offering a steady outcome at home (4/65/1). The Browns’ defense shut him down in his two matchups (0/4 and 3/37 on nine combined targets) last year.
Cleveland held tight ends to seven catches for 26 yards on 10 targets over the first three weeks while facing Irv Smith, Pat Freiermuth, and Chigoziem Okonkwo. In 2022, the Browns had the eighth-best defense vs. tight ends (64/760/2). The Patriots (6/122/1) were the only team to solve their tight-end defense.
Based on his price point, Andrews has the profile to pay off in a big way. Unfortunately, his matchup makes him a contrarian option due to the slow start of the Ravens’ passing game and the improvement of Cleveland’s defense in 2023. Baltimore does have some risk in the secondary, giving Deshaun Watson some upside to pass the ball if the Browns decide to air the ball out. A chaser game would give Andrews the best chance to post a winning day in Week 4.
Mid-Tier Options
Cole Kmet, CHI (DK – $4,000/FD – $4,900)
This week in the high-stakes market, I saw Kmet get punted into the free-agent pool in multiple leagues. The direction of the Bears’ passing attack and offense looks dismal. Over the first three weeks in 2022, Justin Fields attempted 45 passes (297/2), leading to Kmet receiving only five targets (0/0, 0/0, and 2/40). This season, Chicago almost doubled their passing stats (51-for-88 with 526 yards and three touchdowns) over the first three weeks compared to last season. Kmet had 11 catches for 104 yards on 15 targets, putting him on pace for 62 catches for 589 yards (50/544 in 2022). The only difference is that he scored seven touchdowns last season, all coming over Chicago’s final 10 games.
Denver’s defense limps into Week 4 after getting rolled by the Dolphins and allowing 105 points over the past two contests. Tight ends have nine catches for 124 yards and one score on 13 targets vs. the Broncos while facing Austin Hooper (3/40), Logan Thomas (6/65/1), and Durham Smythe (7/82). Each player’s stats are for the whole season, meaning Denver had yet to face a team with a top-tier tight end.
Kmet has the look of being overpriced based on his 2023 stats. He needs 16.00 fantasy points to be in the mix in Week 4. Last season, Kmet was the ninth-highest-scoring tight end (147.30) in PPR formats. His best value came at home in two midseason games (5/41/2 and 4/74/2). He’s an easy player to overlook, but Kmet sometimes has multi-touchdown upside.
Low-Value Options
Pat Freiermuth, PIT (DK – $3,400/FD – $5,500)
The Steelers have not gotten Freiermuth involved in their offense over the first three weeks. He only has five catches for 46 yards on nine targets. But two of his receptions led to touchdowns. Last season, Freiermuth had a floor of seven catches in four matchups while gaining at least 75 yards in five games. He gained 13.7 yards per catch on the road, compared to 9.7 at home. In his rookie season, Freiermuth had seven scores under the guidance of Ben Roethlisberger.
Houston struggled vs. tight ends over the past two weeks (IND – 6/80/1 and JAC – 10/78) after not getting challenged in Week 1 (1/4 on two targets) by the Ravens with Mark Andrews injured. In 2022, the Texans allowed 73 catches for 848 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends on 114 targets.
When looking at the overall receiving structure for the Steelers, Freiermuth may finish with the second-best opportunity behind George Pickens if Diontae Johnson doesn’t return over the next couple of weeks. His low salary fits his potential and career profile, and Freiermuth may not need to score to pay off. A touchdown should lead to him being a winning play in Week 4.
Dalton Kincaid, BUF (DK – $3,200/FD – $4,800)
I’m going to beat the drum of Kincaid for another week as I believe his ceiling game is much higher than many of the bottom-tier tight ends when the Bills get him more involved. In addition, Buffalo’s ability to score multiple touchdowns each week gives him more chances to reach paydirt. His stock was trending up after Week 2 (5/43/ on six targets), but Kincaid only had two catches for three yards against Washington. The Bills had him on the field for 51% of their plays, down from 80% in Week 1 and 60% in Week 2. My thought is Dawson Knox gets more snaps when Buffalo plays from the lead in the second half.
Tight ends have 17 catches for 139 yards and two touchdowns on 23 targets against Miami. Most of the damage came in Week 2 (11/85/) vs. the Patriots. In 2022, the Dolphins ranked 27th in tight end defense (99/954/9 on 124 targets), with struggles in four games (BAL – 13/147/1, PIT – 11/81, HOU – 7/81/1, and BUF – 7/112/1).
Kincaid is only in play for me in a stack tied to Josh Allen. He needs more targets to be trusted weekly in any format, but his pass-catching ability should shine as the season progresses. Miami tends to tighten up their defense vs. wide receivers in the red zone (11 wide receiver scores over their last 20 games), pointing to Allen turning to his Knights (tight ends) in close in this matchup.
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