NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Packers at Bears: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bears – 2.5

Over/Under: 43.5

The theme for the Packers in 2023 has the sound of a boy band (New Direction) after losing Aaron Rodgers and replacing him with their new Love. The summer reports have been positive for Jordan Love, especially his connection with Christian Watson. The running back position remains in the hands of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Green Bay added WR Jaylen Reed and TE Luke Musgrove to improve the depth of their passing options.

The Bears have a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but they have the tools to be a much better offense in 2023. DJ Moore is an upgrade at wideout, and a healthy Darnell Mooney paired with Cole Kmet gives Justin Fields the weapons to push much higher in his pass production. He remains a beast running the ball. Chicago will rotate in three backs out of the gate.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love

• Love came to the NFL with size (6’4” and 225 lbs.) and a strong arm. He’ll make easy deep throws with a flick of his wrist. Love sometimes has a looker feel when waiting for a player to break open. I expect him to succeed if given time to throw and surrounded by talented receivers. His decision-making and reads need improvement while having some concerns with his accuracy. 
• In his first chance to see game action with Green Bay in 2021, Love brought a dull feel, leading to 411 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions on his 62 pass attempts. 
• He gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Last season, Love saw limited snaps over four games (14-for-21 with 195 yards and one touchdown). 
• The Bears ranked 26th in quarterback defense (21.36 FPPG). Despite their lower rankings, only one quarterback posted an impact game (39.85 fantasy points). On the positive side, seven quarterbacks scored between 24.90 and 28.90 fantasy points.
• Love is priced in a favorable range, and he does have one explosive wideout. Let the “Magic” happen.

Aaron Jones

• Last year, Jones gained more than 1,400 combined yards for the third time while setting a career-high in catches (59). 
• He was a much better player at home (932 combined yards with four touchdowns and 28 catches) than on the road (584 combined yards with three touchdowns and 31 catches). 
• Jones gained more than 100 yards in six matchups. Green Bay had him on the field for the same percentage of plays (57.6) while playing two games. 

• In Week 2, he posted an impact game (170 combined yards with two touchdowns and three catches) vs. the Bears.
• Chicago had the second-worst defense against running backs.
• The Packers will rotate in two backs, and Love may not get Jones as many targets as in the past with Aaron Rodgers behind center.
• He needs a 25.00 fantasy point game to be in the mix. I’ll take the under.

AJ Dillon

• Last year, Dillion had a similar opportunity (12.6 touches per game) as his rookie season, but he gained 140 fewer yards and six fewer catches. 
• From Week 2 to Week 11, Dillon failed to reach paydirt, leading to below 10.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in each matchup. 
• His stock rose over a three-game stretch (17.80, 20.90, and 22.10 fantasy points). He scored six of his seven touchdowns over five games late in the year.

• Possible goal line back, but Dillion needs to score more than 20.00 fantasy points to be in the mix.

Christian Watson

• Watson came into last season with a knee issue, followed by a hamstring, concussion, and hip injuries. 
• Watson missed three games over the first seven weeks while producing empty stats over his first six matchups (10/88 on 14 targets with three rushes for 19 yards and one score). 
• His stock rose over four games from Week 10 to Week 14 (4/107/3, 4/48/2, 4/110/1, and 3/48/1). 
• Over the final eight games, Watson caught 31 of his 52 targets for 523 yards and seven touchdowns while gaining 16.9 yards per catch. 
• I question whether Love can deliver the in close touchdowns that Aaron Rodgers connected with Watson during his hot streak last year.
• Wide receivers had 184 catches for 2,658 yards and 13 touchdowns on 278 targets vs. the Bears. They allowed 14.45 yards per catch to wideouts.
• Based on his play in the preseason, Watson should be in play in Week 1. On the downside, a Love/Watson stack could be popular due to the low investment.

Romeo Doubs

• Doubs gained steam in the fantasy market late last summer. Over his first four games, he caught 19 catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns on 24 targets. 
• His value faded over his final nine matchups (23/241/1) due to a weaker catch rate (53.5) and four missed games with an ankle injury. 
• The Packers used him close to the line of scrimmage based on his yards per catch (10.1). 

• He enters Week 1 with a hamstring injury that may lead to him sitting out the game.

Jayden Reed

• Over four seasons with Michigan State, Reed caught 203 of his 333 targets with 2,919 yards and 27 touchdowns. 
• His best year came in 2021 (59/1,026/10), but he had regression in his output in 2022 (55/636/5). 
• Green Bay will try to get Reed the ball in space to take advantage of his ability to make defenders miss. He’ll do the dirty work close to the line of scrimmage, but the Packers will need to run set plays for him.
• The injury to Doubs gives him a potential WR2 opportunity for the Packers, with a basement salary. He is a sneaky cheat player, especially in a Green Bay/Chicago game stack.

Luke Musgrave

• Over four seasons at Oregon State, Musgrave only suited up for 20 games, leading to 47 catches for 633 yards and two touchdowns. His best output came in 2021 (22/304/1) while teasing over his only two starts (6/89/1 and 5/80) last year. 

• His second-round pedigree shows how much respect the Packers’ coaching staff has for his talent. Musgrave gives Jordan Love a true tight end who can work all three levels of the defense. My early profile is Dalton Schultz, with more speed and size.
• Musgrave drew flier interest in the season-long drafts over the summer, and he has been getting some praise from the Packers’ coaching staff.
• Viable gamble with a Love stack.

Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for the Chicago Bears Defense:

• The Bears fell to 31st in rushing yards allowed (2,674) with 31 touchdowns. Opponents gained 4.9 yards per carry while averaging 31.9 rushes per game.
• Chicago ranks 18th in passing yards allowed (3,716). Quarterbacks gained 8.0 yards per rush with 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Their defense only had 20 sacks.
• Their defensive line doesn’t have one impact player, and their best hope for upside comes in this year’s draft class at defensive tackle. Chicago hopes to make some progress slowing down the run up the middle in 2023.

Chicago Bears

Justin Fields

• For the second consecutive season, Fields lost momentum late in the year due to an injury. He took a nasty hit in Week 11, leading to a missed game, while also sitting out Week 18 with a hip issue.
•  Despite having high hopes as a QB2 in the fantasy market in 2022, Fields played his way off rosters after a dismal first four games (34-for-67 with 471 yards passing, two touchdowns, and four interceptions plus 34 runs for 147 yards and a score). 
• The Bears allowed him to run more from Week 6 to Week 11 (80/640/6), leading to an impressive run (21.30, 26.15, 27.55, 43.95, 42.05, and 25.15 fantasy points). His electric game (301 combined yards with four touchdowns) vs. the Dolphins helped me win $250,000 at DraftKings. 
• Fields never threw more than 28 pass attempts in any matchup. His rushing stats (160/1,143/8) accounted for 49.0% of his fantasy points. He gained more than 20 yards on 10 rushes, with four plays reaching the 40-yard mark.

• In his first matchup vs. the Packers last season, Fields only attempted 11 passes with minimal damage running the ball (8/20/1). He gained 325 combined yards at home against Green Bay with one touchdown.
• The Packers ranked seventh defending quarterbacks (17.25 FPPG) last season.
• If the summer talk is true about Fields throwing the ball more this season, he looks poised to post more impact games. On the downside, he needs 30.00 fantasy points in this matchup to be viable. I’ll have him on some tickets.

Khalil Herbert

• With David Montgomery injured over four games in 2021, Herbert gained 388 combined yards with one touchdown and nine catches on 87 touches. Unfortunately, he barely touches the ball over his other 12 matchups (141 yards on 30 touches).
• The Bears gave him the starts in Week 3 vs. the Texans last season with Montgomery out. Herbert responded with an impact game (20/157/2 with two catches for 12 yards). 
• His touches fluctuated over his final nine matchups (77/414/1 with four catches for 20 yards) while missing four weeks with a hip injury. 
• Chicago had him on the field for 29.1% of their plays. Herbert scored 6.00 fantasy points or fewer over his last five games.
• This season, the Bears should try to get him on the field for 40 to 45% of their plays. Herbert gained an impressive 5.7 yards per rush in 2022, helped by two rushes of 40 yards or more.
• Green Bay finished 25th in running back fantasy defense last year.
• Chicago may rotate in two other backs in Week 1, making it challenging for Herbert to have a playable game unless he hits on a long run with a touchdown. I don’t see him getting goal-line carries, and he doesn’t have the resume to be a high-volume pass-catcher.

Roschon Johnson

• Over four seasons at Texas, Johnson rushed for 2,190 yards on 392 carries with 23 touchdowns. He caught 56 of his 77 targets for 420 yards and three more scores. 
• Four (21/121, 23/105/3, 14/139/3, and 3/112/1) of his five games with more than 100 yards rushing came over his first 26 contests in college. He failed to deliver an impact game in his senior season. 
• Johnson is trending up over the summer, pointing to him possibly passing D’Onta Foreman on the depth chart in Week 1. Without knowing his usage, he falls into the gamble category.

DJ Moore

• Moore stumbled out of the gate in 2022 due to his lack of rhythm with Baker Mayfield. Six weeks into the season, he only had 20 catches for 204 yards and one touchdown on 44 targets. 
• A switch at quarterback led to two productive games (7/69/1 and 6/152/1), followed by three more empty showings (2/24, 4/29, and 3/24). 
• Moore played well in four (4/103/1, 5/73/1, 5/83/1, and 6/117/1) of his final six contests, helping fantasy teams when league championships were on the line. 
• He failed to catch a pass in Week 14 while ending the year on a down note (1/10).
• Wide receivers had 187 catches for 2,489 yards and 14 touchdowns on 283 targets against Green Bay. 
• Moore should see a lot of CB Jaire Alexander in this matchup, leading to lower scoring and potentially fewer targets.

Darnell Mooney

• Mooney rarely hit his 2021 stride last season over his 11 full starts. He posted five playable games (4/94, 7/68, 5/70, 7/43/1, and 4/29/1) in the season-long formats. 
• Chicago gave him six targets or fewer in nine matchups. His catch rate (65.6) was much improved. 
• Mooney was on pace to catch 62 passes for 762 yards and three touchdowns if he played 17 games.
• Possible sneaky player with Fields due to Moore facing a top cornerback, and his salary is favorable.

Chase Claypool

• Last year, Claypool failed to make an impact in seven of his eight games with the Steelers, leading to a midseason trade to Chicago. In Week 6, he posted his only game (7/96/1) of value. 
• Claypool only had 14 catches for 140 yards with the Bears while missing two weeks with a knee injury.
• Coming into Week 1, he is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. The Bears expect him to play.

Cole Kmet

• In 2022, Chicago gave Kmet only 20 targets over the first eight weeks, leading to 14 catches for 159 yards and one touchdown. He delivered two impact games in Week 9 (5/41/2) and Week 10 (4/74/2). 
• Over his final seven starts, Kmet caught 27 of his 36 targets for 270 yards and two scores.
• If the Bears throw close to 500 passes, Kmet will undoubtedly finish the year as a top-10 tight end.
• Tight ends had 60 catches for 539 yards and six touchdowns on 87 targets vs. the Packers last season.
• Very playable in a team hook-up with Fields.

Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for the Green Bay Packers Defense:

• Green Bay fell to 26th in rushing yards allowed (2,372) with 18 touchdowns. Ball carriers gained 5.0 yards per rush, with 28.2 rushing attempts per game. 
• The Packers bumped to 6th in passing yards allowed (3,349) while allowing 22 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Quarterbacks gained 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Their defense delivered 34 sacks. Their pass defense was helped by opponents attempting a league-low 478 passes. 
• The 2023 additions in this year’s draft class should help Green Bay regain its lost value against the run while adding more sacks.

More Week 1 Previews

Panthers at Falcons

Texans at Ravens

Bengals at Browns

Jaguars at Colts

Buccaneers at Vikings

Titans at Saints

49ers at Steelers

Cardinals at Commanders

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