2023 Fantasy Football Fades
Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players who are being over-drafted in 2023.
For me, the most challenging category each football season in the fantasy market is the fade/bust category. In most cases, a player underachieves expectations due to an injury. I’m looking for players coming off career years that look overpriced in drafts. In addition, some players will be ranked with more established options, putting them in a one-year wonder category.
Josh Jacobs (RB) Las Vegas Raiders
There is no doubt Jacobs has talent and upside, but he is coming off a massive workload (393 touches), leading to an exceptional season (2,053 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 53 catches). Unfortunately, the Raiders failed to pick up his fifth-year option before last year, putting him in the “franchise tag category.”
Jacobs turned 25 in February, and he wants to get paid. When training camp opened in July, his flight left town. His holdout could be lengthy, creating a fantasy dilemma. His 2022 stats suggest a value in the second round. I expect regression in his output and some injury risk by not being at training camp. Jacobs was an excellent buy last year, but I sense a potential trap even if he slides to the third round in PPR formats.
Over the past seven seasons, a running back has led the NFL in combined yards, with each outcome resulting in more than 2,000 yards. Here’s a look at those stats, along with their production in yards the following year:
- 2022 Josh Jacobs (2,053 yards) – 2023 (unknown)
- 2021 Jonathan Taylor (2,171 yards) – 2022 (1,044 yards)
- 2020 Derek Henry (2,141 yards) – 2021 (1,091 yards)
- 2019 Christian McCaffrey (2,392 yards) – 2020 (374 yards)
- 2018 Saquon Barkley (2,028 yards) – 2019 (1,441 yards)
- 2017 Todd Gurley (2,093 yards) – 2018 (1,831 yards)
- 2016 David Johnson (2,118 yards) – 2017 (715 yards)
In each case of failure, an injury derailed their chance of repeating. Todd Gurley had the most success the following season, but his career faded quickly in 2019 and 2020 while being out of the league at age 26.
Chris Olave (WR) New Orleans Saints
I understand the attraction to Olave after an excellent rookie season (72/1,042/4), but he looks mispriced in the early drafts in 2023. Derek Carr is an upgrade over Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston, pointing to more pass attempts. Last year, Olave ranked 24th in wide receiver scoring (200.20) in PPR formats while coming off the board as the 12th wideout this draft season.
Over the summer, Olave has been battling an Achilles issue that has been reported to be minor. This type of injury can sometimes turn into a tear and a lost season. Olave is the Saints’ big-play receiver with more upside in scoring. I don’t see him catching 100 balls or scoring 10 touchdowns, meaning there are a few other options that look attractive in at least one of these areas.
I like the ceiling of these five wideouts (DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, Calvin Ridley, and Jerry Jeudy) more than Olave. In addition, Michael Thomas will be more of a factor in 2023 than the fantasy market believes. Olave is more in play for me as a midtier WR2 in PPR formats. For the record, I have him ranked 19th in the preseason while on a path to catch 85 balls for 1,163 yards and five scores.
Christian Watson (WR) Green Bay Packers
I’ll be totally against the grain with my option about Watson in his sophomore year with the Packers. He is blessed with elite speed, allowing him to get open when Green Bay’s offensive line creates a long passing window. The downgrade to Jordan Love from Aaron Rodgers is a significant factor.
Love has to prove he can finish drives in the red zone with passing scores, with the eyes and command of his passes to hit Watson in the deep passing game. Green Bay gave him 52 targets over his final eight starts last season, highlighted by an impressive four-game stretch (4/107/3, 4/48/2, 4/110/1, and 3/48/1), driven by his scoring (seven TDs). In his other 10 matchups, he had 26 catches for 298 yards and no scores on 39 targets.
Watson sits 24th at wide receiver in mid-August while outranking many wideouts with more established resumes. Ultimately, from my perspective, he is overpriced by a round or two. Part of his projections (70/992/5) comes from the Packers having questions about their wide receiver structure heading into 2023.
Kyle Pitts (TE) Atlanta Falcons
When drafting a fantasy team, getting away from talented players coming off injuries is difficult. The most crucial factor is reading between the news reports to get a feel for when someone will return to full strength. Pitts was a bust last year over his 10 games (2.8 catches for 35.6 yards and 0.20 touchdowns per start) while having surgery to repair his ACL in late November. He’ll have nine months of recovery time before the start of 2023. I expect him to be limited in September while waiting for a better update on his early season status.
In training camp, Pitts practiced with a knee brace, solidifying my thoughts of him not being in top form out of the gate. As the 5th ranked tight end in ADP, I say, “no deal” while putting him in the avoid category. Pitts could be a factor later in the year and help fantasy teams, but the first goal is making the postseason. I have him on a path to catch 45 passes for 590 yards and four touchdowns. With a 10% increase in this outlook, he would still only be my 13th-ranked tight end.
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