Targeting upside is just natural in fantasy football. Identifying breakouts, sleepers, and bounce-back players make all the headlines. However, it is equally important to avoid potential landmines. Players set to disappoint at their current ADP. On that note, we have identified our Fantasy Football Round One Bust of the Year.
FullTime Fantasy’s world-famous Fantasy Football Draft Kit is loaded with exclusive content. This includes our unique Preseason Pro series that dives deep into the minds of some of the most successful high-stakes veterans and fantasy experts in the world. Part of the Preseason Pro includes players these insiders are avoiding in 2023.
FullTime Fantasy’s 2023 Fantasy Bust of the Year is…
Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams.
— Profile —
Obviously, seeing an elite player like Davante Adams will come as a shock. For the record, Adams is too good to totally bust. But there are a number of factors at hand that make us very wary of drafting him at his current ADP. You’re going to get a great player in Adams. However, he will have trouble paying off a first-round price.
Adams has been remarkably consistent. He’s produced 15-plus fantasy points per game in seven consecutive seasons. Adams has also scored double-digit touchdowns in six-of-seven and topped 100 receptions in four of five.
Most of that came with future Hall-of-Fame QB Aaron Rodgers at the helm. However, Adams overcame those concerns and continued to thrive with Derek Carr in Las Vegas last season.
Of course, Adams played with Carr at Fresno State and had the entire offseason to build chemistry.
That isn’t the case in 2023. Adams missed a week of action in early August after injuring his leg in a practice with San Francisco. There is no incentive for the Raiders to play Adams at all in the preseason games. That could prevent Adams from timing and cadence with his new quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo.
Speaking of Jimmy G, it was anything but a smooth offseason for Carr’s replacement in Sin City.
— Quarterback Concerns —
After benching Derek Carr last season, having a new signal caller for the Raiders was inevitable. Garoppolo signed a three-year $72.8 million deal to take over as the Raiders’ new QB. However, almost immediately there were complications.
Despite signing with the club, the foot injury that knocked Garoppolo out of the 2022 season required surgery. Recovery from that procedure forced Jimmy G to miss OTAs.
Meanwhile, rumors began swirling that Garoppolo could be released from his newly-signed contract without penalty. Plus, Vegas traded up to nab Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Ultimately, Garoppolo stayed with the club and avoided the PUP list. He took the field with his teammates in training camp as the unquestioned starter. However, there have been some rough practice sessions for the Raiders and their new signal caller.
https://t.co/na0xkP3e52 they did the same thing to Jimmy G in camp the year he took the Niners to the Super Bowl 😂
— Matt Hamilton (@MattHamilton25) August 16, 2023
Also, the Raiders have the lowest win total in the AFC. Plus head coach Josh McDaniels is among the favorites to be the first head coach dismissed in 2023.
This all spells trouble for Adams, who also turns 31 in December.
And speaking of December, Las Vegas has a rather difficult Strength of Schedule during fantasy playoffs.
In terms of fantasy football points per game, Jimmy Garoppolo has never finished above 17th in any one season. In fact, he’s ranked 20th or worse in four out of six seasons since becoming a starter.
And unlike Derek Carr, Garoppolo doesn’t have an established history of consistently forcing the ball to his No.1 wideout. The Raiders project to have a passing attack that will rank in the bottom third of the league. And that makes it difficult to envision Davante Adams seeing enough quality targets to pay off his current ADP.
— Current ADP —
Looking at FFWC High-Stakes ADP, Adams is still commanding a first-round pick as the WR8. We acknowledge that Adams has posted three consecutive top-3 wideout seasons. However, that streak is far more likely to end in 2023 and the fantasy draft community is being reactive, not proactive.
As wide receivers have shot up in value, the position is dominating the first round of most PPR drafts. That is especially true with fantasy managers who snag those late picks in draft positions 9-12. Opening a draft with a WR/WR start has become all the rage. In turn, Adams remains a hot commodity in that last part of the opening round.
However, there are other wideouts in that range that we feel are safer. Amon-Ra St. Brown tops that list. Garrett Wilson gets to play with Adams’ old running mate Aaron Rodgers and offers plenty of upside. Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown also can justifiably be selected around the same range. And both offer more stable surroundings.
Also, the prominence of wide receivers means that there is value at other positions. Multiple top-5 running backs are likely to be on the board at the turn of Round One. Since the RB position isn’t nearly as deep, fantasy managers should also consider exploring that value.
It is also inadvisable to try to stack Davante Adams with his quarterback- either in single-QB or Superflex formats.
Overall, Davante Adams is a fine player who will undoubtedly produce quality fantasy numbers. However, we feel like he is being drafted 10 spots too high. Winning fantasy managers know they simply can’t miss on their first-round picks.
That is why Davante Adams is our 2023 Fantasy Football Bust of the Year.
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