Winning in fantasy baseball comes from a successful draft plan, lineup management, and many winning free-agent pickups. At the same time, it is vital to find the breakout hitter of 2023 to help push your team over the finish line.
Before we reveal the Breakout Hitter of 2023, please familiarize yourself with my 2023 fade list. Also, my 2023 bounce-back players , deep sleepers, and extensive preview of all 30 squads are invaluable resources.
Identifying Candidates
The goal is to identify a hitter who will outperform his draft position by a wide margin. For example, if I target a player selected from the eighth to the 10th round in the current draft season, he must deliver first or second-round value to be considered a difference-maker. Any other players will have a range of improvements based on their draft value.
Last year Julio Rodriguez was hands down the breakout hitter. He came into last season with no experience at AAA and only 174 at-bats at AA (.362/35/7/26/16). But his spring training buzz led to him going as high as the fourth round in at least one NFBC main event draft. In the early draft season of 2022, Rodriguez came off the board well over pick 300 in 15-team formats. By the start of March, his ADP climbed into the 280 range. After a tremendous rookie season (.284/84/28/75/25 over 511 at-bats), he is a top-five selection (ADP – 5.5) in the high-stakes market this season.
Bobby Witt Jr. also had an electric rookie campaign (.254/82/20/80/30 over 591 at-bats). But Witt was expected to make the Royals last winter. This led to his ADP falling in the third to sixth-round range from January to March. His success also pushed him into the first round in 2023 (ADP – 9.9). Witt came into last year with almost an even split of playing time at AA (.295/44/16/51/14 over 244 at-bats) and AAA (.285/55/17/46/15 over 253 at-bats). He hit the breakout category, but Witt was on most drafter’s radar last winter.
I tend to be a year early on my breakout hitters, which was the case with Dalton Varsho (2021). He came through with an exciting season last year (.235/79/27/74/16 over 531 at-bats) for the catcher position.
Last season, Alec Bohm was my breakout hitter. He showed growth in 2022 (.280/79/13/72/2 over 586 at-bats), but his swing path led to fewer home runs than I expected. Over 10 games this March, Bohm showed an uptick in power (10-for-29 with seven runs, three home runs, and six RBIs).
The Breakout Hitter of 2023
This year’s breakout hitter is Jordan Walker. He isn’t a player flying under the radar, but Walker still isn’t a lock to make the Cardinals’ opening-day roster. However, I think he will. Over his first 11 games in spring training, Walker went 14-for-33 with seven runs, three home runs, seven RBIs, and one steal. Unfortunately, a slight right shoulder strain stalled his draft momentum in mid-March. Once he returns to the field, the drafting bus will fight for him again. 
Walker has almost an entire season of experience at AA (.306/100/19/68/22 over 461 at-bats) while offering a good approach (strikeout rate – 21.6 and walk rate – 10.8). His swing path led to a low flyball rate (31.4). But his HR/FB rate (17.8) did improve from his time at High A (14.8%).
From November 1st until January 31st in the NFBC, Walker had an ADP of 246 in 15-team leagues. His ADP (225) moved up 21 spots in February. This was followed by a wave of interest in March (ADP of 152 with a range of 99 to 190).
In the first run of my projections (in late February), I had Walker playing in 126 games, leading to a .282 batting average over 83 runs, 22 home runs, 73 RBIs, and 13 steals over 500 at-bats. Based on these projections, he ranked eighth at third base, just behind Gunner Henderson.
Next draft season, Walker will be selected in the top three rounds in all fantasy drafts. I will undoubtedly bump his projections by a few games later this week once he clears his injury. Also, we’re waiting for St. Louis to update his status for making the 2023 roster. I see a stud with a high floor and an explosive ceiling. And I expect Walker to hit the ground running. The tricky part is figuring out where to draft him to gain an edge, which ultimately comes from his chance to start for St. Louis.
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