While it does seem like some players do indeed show up to training camp in the shape of their life and there is certainly some precedence to wanting to maximize their offseason value, there is no real corollary evidence that indicates there is a notable increase in output in contract years.
Of course, there are exceptions to that. Undoubtedly plenty of players set to enter unrestricted free agency in 2023 will have standout performances this season. But it just might be us looking for this to happen that makes it just seem more common than it actually is.
Regardless, targeting contract-year players in fantasy football drafts can lead to the occasional breakout performance, but it should just be viewed as a small piece of the draft puzzle. Perhaps used as a tie-breaker between two players who are similarly ranked.
Here are some of the key skill-position players to keep in mind that are currently set to be unrestricted free agents after the 2022 NFL season. For a complete list, bookmark the FullTime Fantasy Contract Year Players tab.
The ages listed are how old players will be in March.
Quarterbacks
| PLAYER | POS | TEAM | AGE |
| Tom Brady | QB | TB | 45 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 26 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | SF | 31 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | CLE | 28 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 26 |
Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Retiring will always be the favorite for Brady, particularly if the Bucs are able to make another Super Bowl appearance. There were rumors that Brady tried to retire to unite with Sean Payton in Miami, so there will be at least some eyes on that situation if Tua Tagovailoa fizzles out in 2022. Another team-friendly short-term contract to stay in Tampa is the favorite if Brady intends to play at 46.
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) – There would be no shortage of suitors for Jackson’s services if he hit the open market, but the Ravens will most likely franchise tag the dynamic Jackson if they can’t come to a long-term agreement. Jackson put on 10-15 pounds of muscle this offseason so it will be interesting to see how that affects his speed and durability. Regardless, Jackson is likely to be one of the top-5 highest paid signal-callers next season.
Jimmy Garoppolo (San Francisco 49ers) – Garoppolo is still an obvious candidate to be traded ahead of the 2022 NFL campaign but 49ers’ brass may have to wait for an injury to occur to drum up interest. If Garoppolo is moved and performs well, he could attract solid offers as a viable starter still in his prime.
Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns) – Another decent option stuck in purgatory, there appears to be no chance that Mayfield will ever suit up for the Browns again, even if Deshaun Watson is suspended for the entire season, which is looking likely. Still just 27, Mayfield will get another shot and could endear himself to a new fan base soon if the Browns are willing to pick up a significant portion of his 2022 salary to get the former No. 1 overall pick out of Cleveland this summer.
Running Backs
| PLAYER | POS | TEAM | AGE |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | 26 |
| David Montgomery | RB | CHI | 26 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | LV | 25 |
| Damien Harris | RB | NE | 26 |
| Miles Sanders | RB | PHI | 26 |
| James Robinson | RB | JAC | 25 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | BUF | 26 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | CLE | 28 |
| Rashaad Penny | RB | SEA | 27 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | DAL | 26 |
| Alexander Mattison | RB | MIN | 25 |
| Darrell Henderson | RB | LAR | 26 |
| Ronald Jones | RB | KC | 26 |
| D’Ernest Johnson | RB | CLE | 27 |
| Sony Michel | RB | MIA | 28 |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | DEN | 30 |
| Darrel Williams | RB | ARZ | 28 |
Saquon Barkley (New York Giants) – It’s now or never for Barkley, who has battled injuries and not lived up to his lofty draft status. Our 2022 fantasy football rankings actually like Barkley quite a bit, but he’ll have to stay healthy and catch a ton of passes to earn another lucrative multi-year deal. Another disappointing showing in 2022 could make it hard for Barkley to attract anything more than a one-year “prove it” deal as part of a committee backfield.
David Montgomery (Chicago Bears) – Chicago is breaking in a new regime with no ties to Montgomery or Khalil Herbert, so they could choose to simply let Montgomery handle as many touches as he can handle before moving on next spring. That makes Montgomery awfully appealing at his current ADP but his future is a lot less certain.
Josh Jacobs (Las Vegas Raiders) – The Raiders already declined Jacobs’ fifth-year option so it’s almost certain that he’ll be playing elsewhere in 2023. Jacobs caught a career-best 54 passes last season but isn’t expected to be as involved in that area in 2022. If he can still rush for another 1,000-yard season with double-digit scores, Jacobs could attract some teams as a starter and approach $8-10 million annually on a three or four-year deal.
Tony Pollard (Dallas Cowboys) – Debate continues to rage about the Cowboys potentially being better off with Pollard in the backfield rather than Ezekiel Elliott and his albatross contract. Dallas parted ways with Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson, which frees up plenty of opportunities for both Elliott and Pollard this season. If Pollard continues to shine with his touches, he could really cash in as a potential starter in 2023.
Wide Receivers
| PLAYER | POS | TEAM | AGE |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | 27 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | SEA | 25 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | 27 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 28 |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | 26 |
| D.J. Chark | WR | DET | 27 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | NE | 26 |
| Allen Lazard | WR | GB | 27 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | NO | 30 |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | KC | 25 |
| Deonte Harty | WR | NO | 25 |
| Parris Campbell | WR | IND | 26 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | BUF | 30 |
| Marvin Jones | WR | JAC | 33 |
Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers) – Currently at an impasse due to his expiring contract, Samuel skipped OTAs but showed up for mandatory minicamp. This offers a glimmer of hope that Samuel and the 49ers can work out a long-term extension, which would be best for all parties. If he is somehow able to hit the open market, Samuel could earn over $25 million annually in a free-agent wide receiver class that is extremely thin overall in overall depth.
DK Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks) – Timing is everything and that might not necessarily be a good thing for Metcalf. Right as he’s set to cash in after falling in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Seahawks traded QB Russell Wilson. Metcalf’s output is now reliant on the uninspiring combination of Drew Lock and Geno Smith. Even if he understandably struggles to perform in 2022, Metcalf is going to command more than $20 million annually and will have no shortage of suitors.
Diontae Johnson (Pittsburgh Steelers) – The Steelers have a history of not re-signing big-name wideouts, which makes Johnson the most-likely elite wide receiver to test free agency. Johnson is a quality inside option and will have plenty of long-term offers to ponder but an unsure quarterback situation in Pittsburgh could hurt his chances of posting those “contract year” numbers.
Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders) – McLaurin is also holding out so far this offseason but there have been ongoing talks about a new deal for the fourth-year pass-catcher. McLaurin has topped 130 targets in back-to-back campaigns and has a path to another huge role with QB Carson Wentz in town. Expect McLaurin to remain in DC with a new deal north of $20 million annually.
Tight Ends
| PLAYER | POS | TEAM | AGE |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | MIA | 28 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | DAL | 27 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | BUF | 26 |
| Evan Engram | TE | JAC | 29 |
| Irv Smith | TE | MIN | 25 |
| Austin Hooper | TE | TEN | 28 |
| Hayden Hurst | TE | CIN | 30 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | TE | NYG | 28 |
| O.J. Howard | TE | BUF | 28 |
| Dan Arnold | TE | JAC | 28 |
Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins) – It may be hard for the Dolphins to re-sign Gesicki after spending a ton of money prior to this season acquiring Tyreek Hill and signing Cedrick Wilson. If that happens, Gesicki would easily be viewed as the top available tight end and would be poised to set the market. He could get anywhere from $45 to $50 million over four years.
Dalton Schultz (Dallas Cowboys) – Schultz was franchise tagged this offseason so he’ll earn a cool $10.9 million on a one-year deal. The Cowboys have a ton of vacated targets which could really benefit Schultz, who ranked third in the position last season with 78 receptions. If he remains that involved in the Dallas passing attack, Schultz could actually command the biggest overall tight end deal but the best fantasy outcome is to remain in Big D.
Evan Engram (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Tight end seems to be unusually deep this season and Engram is a prime late-round sleeper to consider on draft day. New head coach Doug Pederson has a long history of heavily utilizing his tight ends often.
Doug Pederson’s TEs in PPR pts/game:
2013- Fasano 6.8 (39th)
2014- Kelce 11.5 (9th)
2015- Kelce 11.8 (9th)
2016- Ertz 13.1 (3rd)
2017- Ertz 14.6 (3rd)
2018- Ertz 17.5 (2nd)
2019- Ertz 14.4 (4th)
2019- Goedert 9.9 (13th)
2020- Goedert 10.6 (10th)Evan Engram current ADP TE24
— #TagsStrong💪 (@JodySmithNFL) June 21, 2022
If Engram can approach those lofty target figures on a one-year deal, he’s got a solid chance of attracting attention as a moderately priced starter and could earn some multi-year offers next spring.
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