The long wait is finally over and the fantasy football draft season has arrived. One of the best ways to compile a championship-contending roster is to know which players might exceed their current ADP and who might disappoint.
When fantasy football fans can target those values and avoid the busts, they give themselves a huge competitive advantage over their less-prepared league mates.
Here are some players that make great bargains, and others to be wary of as we head into the 2021 fantasy football season.
Undervalued Players
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) Miami Dolphins (ADP 216.2, QB23)
As a rookie in 2020 Tagovailoa failed to impress fantasy owners. While he wasn’t awful in real life, the explosive plays and big numbers just weren’t there. With that said, he was set up to fail last year. To start, he was coming off major hip surgery, and most believed he would essentially believe redshirted his rookie season, so the guy wasn’t even supposed to be playing. He was unable to have an offseason or preseason beyond rehabbing and Covid rules only compounded that. Then he was playing behind an improving but very young offensively line and had subpar weapons to throw the ball to.
The reports out of camp so far in regard to Tua have been nothing short of outstanding. Even his harshest critics have been impressed with his growth from year one. His anticipation, mobility, and grasp of the offense have drastically improved. The team also went out and got him the weapons he needed. They drafted Alabama star Jaylen Waddle in the first round and added former Texans star, Will Fuller. Last year prior to being suspended for the final five games of the season, he was the overall WR8 in fantasy football. Pairing those two with DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki is a dangerous group of pass-catchers.
From everything we’ve heard and seen out of Miami so far this summer, you should expect a huge second-year jump from Tua and the Dolphins offense. While he’s being drafted as the QB23, he’s more likely to finish inside the top 15 at his position.
Myles Gaskin (RB) Miami Dolphins (ADP 47.6, RB21)
Sticking with that Dolphins offense, Gaskin has been criminally undervalued and disrespected by fantasy owners. After Week 2 last year, the team used him as a true every-down back giving him the vast majority of the snaps and touches in Miami. In 10 games last season, he totaled 972 yards from scrimmage with five TDs, on 4.1 yards per carry and 41 receptions. That was without him being established to start the season like he is now, and he came on strong late, flashing and playing particularly well in December after coming off a four-game stint on the Covid IR.
The team has proven their loyalty to him by passing up on any top running back in this year’s draft and he’s looking at a heavy workload going into 2021. For the third-straight season, he has been a camp standout and his only competition for touches is Malcolm Brown. With the blocking and pass-catching prowess, Gaskin showed last year, especially late in the season, don’t expect the third-down back to see a ton of third-down snaps. In those final three games last season after Gaskin returned, he caught 11 of 12 targets for 190 yards and two TDs. His longest catch in each of those three games went for 35, 59, and 32 yards. He is a playmaker.
Gaskin is often falling to the fifth and sixth rounds in a ton of drafts and can absolutely be had as an RB3 or in some cases even an RB4 if you go RB heavy early. These ADPs are our FullTimeFantasy Online Championship ADP so the people drafting are the sharpest of the sharp. You will oftentimes be able to get him after guys like Josh Jacobs, Mike Davis, and Travis Etienne. You can be comfortable with him as your RB2 if needed, but he’s a smashing start every week as a flex option.
Michael Pittman (WR) Indianapolis Colts (ADP 88.2, WR45)
Even without Carson Wentz for a stretch to start the season, Pittman is a steal in drafts this summer. He was sneaking up in the draft, but after the Wentz news he has slid back down to where he had been going previously. He is a very talented receiver and will undoubtedly be the WR1 in Indy this season. Even Jacob Eason starting the season isn’t as scary as it seems. Pittman’s 6’4 223-pound frame should allow him to be a security blanket on the outside for Eason and once Wentz does return Pittman will surely be his favorite target.
As a rookie, Pittman caught 40 passes for 503 yards and a TD. Look for him to make a massive leap this season. The talent is there, the team likes to find creative ways to get him the ball and he is now clearly the Alpha TY Hilton well past his prime. When you can get any team’s WR1 as your fantasy WR4 or possibly even WR5, you smash that draft button every time.
Anthony Firkser (TE) Tennessee Titans (ADP 202.7, TE27)
With Jonnu Smith now in New England, Firkser slides into the TE1 role in Tennessee. Last year as the Titans back up, he grabbed 39 passes for 387 yards and a TD on 53 targets. Smith’s departure leaves a large hole at the tight end spot of 65 targets and nine TDs. While Firkser won’t just pile up all those targets and suddenly be a fantasy monster, with no other viable tight end in the mix 500-plus yards and five-six touchdowns isn’t unreasonable. Considering you can have Firsker for free he’s a steal. He will be a top 20 tight end this season and could realistically push toward being a fringe TE1 in 12-team leagues.
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Overvalued Players
Joe Burrow (QB) Cincinnati Bengals (ADP 136.6, QB12)
Seeing where Burrow is being drafted this year has been shocking, to say the least. While his ADP is very slightly behind Tom Brady and Ryan Tannehill, he is often being drafted ahead of them. His ADP also has him sitting in front of Matthew Stafford. There is a ton of risk with this pick and his upside may be more capped than it was last year due to his major knee surgery due to destroying all his knee ligaments. It would be surprising to see him be as mobile coming off this injury.
On top of potential physical limitations, the team will more than likely try to keep him from running more than absolutely necessary. The team drafting his former LSU teammate Jamar Chase is a nice weapon to have but a terrible draft pick being that it prevented them from addressing their putrid offensive line. The same offensive line that almost got him killed in the pocket last year. The Bengals already have a strong WR corps with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd forming a formidable duo. You would think seeing your young first-overall pick quarterback being carted off the field would sway you to get him some protection, but apparently not.
His weapons are very good, nonetheless, between the injury and awful offensive line, having Burrow as your QB1 is dicey at best. In 10 games last year he threw for 2,688 yards and 13 TDs and was sacked 32 times. It’s tough to bank on him taking a major leap with his current circumstances.
J.K. Dobbins (RB) Baltimore Ravens (ADP 34.2, RB17)
This is not going to be a popular opinion because the fantasy community has fallen in love with Dobbins. However, they are projecting what they want, not what is reality. Yes, Dobbins finished 2020 strong, but that may be his ceiling. It’s tough to make a case for him taking a step further this season. Over those last six games, Dobbins rushed 77 times for 495 yards and seven TDs. This was an efficient and outstanding stretch. The issue is in the receiving game during that same stretch he saw a total of four targets, and he caught three of them for 32 yards.
In PPR leagues if you are a complete dud in the passing attack, you have to be Derrick Henry to have any RB1 upside and I’m not so sure Dobbins is that guy due to circumstances in Baltimore. While that is a strong ceiling, it’s just that, his ceiling. In the previous four games before that stretch, he was also the lead runner. He totaled 41 carries for 184 and no TDs on the ground with six catches on 10 targets for 15 yards and no TDs through the air.
The problem you are going to have with Dobbins goes beyond just his complete lack of pass-catching. Even if you believe he’s a good pass-catcher, we have a large enough sample size of Lamar Jackson to know that he wouldn’t get the targets even if he has the skill set. Then you have to deal with both Gus Edwards and Jackson stealing both carries and touchdowns. Jackson and Edwards combined for 13 rushing TDs last season and there is no reason to believe either of them is going away as much as Fantasy owners want to wish that truth into existence. The offensive line could also regress a bit with the loss of Orlando Brown.
In standard format Dobbins is a fine pick, however, in PPR he is being overvalued by the fantasy community. In order for him to have any RB1 upside, his efficiency and touchdown numbers have to be incredible. There are just too many carries and touchdowns going elsewhere and he’s a non-factor in a passing attack that is already limited and rarely targets running backs, to begin with.
Michael Thomas (WR) New Orleans Saints (ADP 51.3), WR25)
Yes, this is low-hanging fruit, but it clearly needs to be addressed. There is no reason at all that Thomas should be drafted as the WR25. There is no reason at all that Thomas should be drafted as the WR45. This is a public service announcement insisting you just don’t draft Thomas. Odds are he’s not going to be healthy at any point this season. It’s looking like even if he does get back to 100% it won’t be until well into the double-digit weeks. Coming off a down year with questions surrounding the Saints quarterback situation, Thomas was already a bit of a risky pick before the news of his June ankle surgery.
It’s not a stretch to rank him outside of your top 60 wide receivers this season. Dealing with an ankle last season he caught 40 passes for 438 yards and no TDs in seven games. Now it sounds like the absolute best-case scenario is he’s back Week 8 and probably less healthy than he was last year. Being that it’s believed even if he makes it back on that Week 8 timeline, it will be another six to eight weeks before he can run and cut effectively. Fade Thomas and don’t look back. Let him be someone else’s problem.
Kyle Pitts (TE) Atlanta Falcons (ADP 59, TE4)
Pitts is the obvious choice here. Even great tight ends tend to struggle their rookie season and there is a scenario if Pitts has the best rookie season anyone has had in 30 years, which is unlikely, and he still wouldn’t be a top-five tight end this season. There is no circumstance where you should be drafting Pitts when you can draft TJ Hockenson and Mark Andrews one or even two rounds later. Pitts will definitely be a star in this league and he’s one of the greatest talents we’ve seen at the position coming out of college ever. Still, it’s a very long shot he can live up to his current ADP as the clear-cut TE4 as a rookie. It’s not impossible, but the odds are stacked highly against him.