SLATE INTRO
Update – Ignore everything I wrote below about this slate not having any site issues. FanDuel is absolutely clueless as they are releasing some update today to sync betting accounts for users in PA and NJ and it has impacted EVERY SINGLE USER ON THEIR SITE. Brilliant. It would be amazing if they actually had a PR person who could come out and be accountable for the actions that they take and speak to their customers or those of us who are actually encouraging folks to use their product. This is clearly an organization run by no talent fucktards who have their heads up their asses. And yeah, you can print what I said. It’s pittiful, absolutely pitiful to perform like this. Five outages this past week. FIVE. You cant edit lineups. You cant enter contests. Cant even try to tinker. And the NBA Playoffs are today? PLAYOFFS? Are you kidding me? NBA PLAYOFFS? I just hope they can get live scoring to work. Somehow….
If ever there was going to be a “Sweet Spot” in this short 60 game season, I believe these next two weeks are that time. We start off this week with a nice 11 game slate today and that is not including the Cardinals/Cubs playing some make-up baseball as the Cards try to quickly rejoin the sprint to the finish. I like our chances to keep positive momentum going and let’s just not get too cute and continue what has been a nice run so far.
One thing that I have noticed as I self evaluate my own performance is that there are two things which greatly cause noise and distractions to me. First off is when the DFS sites (FD/DK) tend to mix up the slates where they do not have synchronicity in the start times and the number of games. That’s not an issue today! The other is conflicting weather information which I usually have handled well but for whatever reason this season has really gotten to me. So going forward I’ll only be focused my personal play on ONE site when they are not similar in structure on the slates to solve that problem — and as far as the weather is concerned I am going to have to trust my initial prediction on the game one way or another and remember that most games end up playing. The Twins/Royals from Friday night was just a one off exception of the rule and I cannot let that distract me as it gave me a shy trigger finger on two games yesterday which played just fine.
WRAP AROUND SERIES / TEAMS STAYING HOME
Baseball has rolled out more Monday wrap around games this year and today we have some series continuing from the weekend. I haven’t noticed anything specific in terms of trends on these series either…
- KC at MIN: Of note, their last four games have all finished 4-2.
- BOS at NYY
Teams who were home on the weekend and are home today against a new opponent
- Marlins
- Orioles
- White Sox
- Astros
- Diamondbacks
- ** Dodgers ** Technically were on the road but it was at Anaheim, so they were “home”
- Angels
WEATHER
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand here we go.
- Boston at NY Yankees – Rain increasing as the game moves along. It’s not a game I was going to have much interest in to begin with, so I am crossing it off even though I expect it to play.
No other issues, thankfully.
- Texas likely could open the roof again tonight
- Arizona likely will continue to open the roof around the 4th inning. Although with Gallen pitching he may say no thanks.
Neither site has any pitcher in the 10k+ range today.
Ross Stripling
Over the last week or so the Mariners have continued to drop in hitting categories (granted the schedule wasn’t great) as they were below .300 as a team in wOBA and continue to hover around 22-24% strikeout rate. Dodger stadium is usually a spot where I lean left handed hitters not named Arenado and Goldschmidt on the road (I just don’t mention it because it’s not on the same level as LiC) and one of the reasons Stripling has always been decent at home is because he’s very very good against LH bats. The Mariners have five of them, but I don’t see anyone having a great deal of success against the Stripper — who is ALWAYS more popular than he should be because he’s not an elite arm, but he’s in a great spot on a mediocre pitching slate.
Griffin Canning
Our choices really start to take a dive after Stripling today and I kinda want to just say Canning and Stripling are the exact same thing. Guys who always carry more ownership than they should and I normally try to avoid because I don’t see them having huge ceilings or going deep into games. As luck has it though, they both have solid match-ups today and the Giants are proving to be MUCH better against LHP this season, so don’t fear them being pesky at times.
Zach Davies
Shit, I might have to make the cover of my article “The Three Stooges” because that’s what we have today. I hate Davies, he walks too many lefties and the Rangers top of the lineup will be loaded with them. But Texas is a baaaad hitting team (even though Santana coming back should help) and they’re coming out of Coors and back into their horrible ballpark. I have Davies listed third because I think the roof does open and of these three I trust him the least — But San Diego wins and if he can get through 5 he wont burn you.
Outside of the Box
So with three guys I normally don’t like having their “great matchup” games, so we have someone who is good AND contrarian we can take a shot on today?
Zac Gallen … would be that guy who is good AND contrarian and if they keep that roof closed in Arizona we can see an Oakland team which has 6+ strikeout targets in it offer up some good upside for Gallen. He was great against a similar profiled Astros team but didn’t sustain the strikeouts and most certainly gives up 1 or 2 solo HR’s here today. I’ll be on Oakland myself, but if you want that pivot at SP, this is the most likely person I would trust.
Jordan Montgomery … The least of the other evils and cheaper than Griffin Canning as an SP2.
Guys I am not using
- Gio Gonzalez: I wrote up enough trash above
- Brandon Bielak: Not a huge K guy and not a long for the game guy either.
- Jordan Yamamoto: Thought about it, but nah, Mets know him.
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: You drunk?
Washington Nationals
Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Asdrubal Cabrera
One key, two key, here comes the negative game for Touki…. That doesn’t quite rhyme but you get the drift. Touki had to struggle as expected against the Yankees in his last start and now he gets a Nationals team who has their lead off kid in Turner awake and a TON of guys who can hammer the ball in this hitter friendly park against Touki’s split finger — which is a pitch the entire Nationals roster outside of Adam Eaton (he sucks) MURDERS. Upper 80’s, wind blowing out 8 mph to center field and the homer friendly Nationals going off.
Toronto / Baltimore
Vlad Guerrero, Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez
:sadface: as Bo Bichette who was on a tear (not shocking considering the opponents and ballparks) lands on the IL with a knee injury. Not good jim. That’s okay though because we have a batter in a ballpark which I have deemed the next player to be at that Goldy-Miller, Braun-Citizens, Trout-America type level. Vlad Guerrero Jr who banged out a homer yesterday walks into Camden Yards and should absolutely be someone we want today, tomorrow and forever in Camden. Cobb is a reverse splits HR guy and the Jays have some righties who can mash. I like Biggio as well because, well, who doesn’t like Cavan? Curious to see if Vlad gets moved up today. He should bat third all series IMO. Biggio-Lourdes-Vlad-Teoscar-Tellez baby… Make it happen Jays.
City of Angels
Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and Just not sure who from the Angels but plug em in when you need a final spot.
Honestly picking the Dodgers and Angels who fit in your lineup is difficult. You don’t need analysis to tell you Mike Trout against Tyler Anderson is a good spot on the Angels side, but the SF Giants bullpen has given up the league’s most HR this season and common sense says that doesn’t end tonight.
Meanwhile the Dodgers have to be the most obvious play on the board in a very warm LA as well tonight and with Roady Bellinger (I call him that because he needs the road to get going) finally waking up and joining the party. But if you like some Grandal from the White Sox (assuming he plays), then you gotta love Joc Pederson because Seager gunna homer too. Joc’n the Grandal, Joc’n the Grandal … Seager gonna hoooooomer….
Teams to keep on your radar
- Chicago White Sox … I will admit it was mostly one inning yesterday against a pitcher making his ML debut. However, I did tell you we could see some weirdness from the Cardinals bullpen and that hit spot on. Chicago is a roller coaster team and one I avoided buying into their hype. They’re loaded with talent but they all play off emotion and I think they’re gonna keep winning 2, losing 2, winning 2, losing 2…. Well, today is “Winning” day and Jose Abreu gets to beat up on his old pals from Detroit again. Moncada flips to his weak side but the Edwin-Eloy part of the lineup is VERY tempting today.
- Oakland … They always rake on the road, get a great park to walk into as well. But Arizona is a HARD team to stack against and even though I do it too much, I gotta stop because ‘Zona uses their pen well at home. That said, the Athletics should have some power spots here today and Matt Chapman is one of them.
- Royals & Twins … The last four games have been 4-2. That’s gonna end.
CATCHER
- Wilson Ramos
- Salvador Perez … I don’t know who is trying to get in the way of my Salvy in Target play this year, but they need to get the hell off the road because I’m coming through.
- James McCann / Yasmani Grandal — Likely McCann game against his former pitcher this time on his turf.
- Bryan Holaday – Adding him as a value play on a slate where there’s not much value in some other spots.
FIRST BASE
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. – Owns Orioles
- Freddie Freeman – Owns Nats
- Jose Abreu – Owns Tigers
SECOND BASE
- Cavan Biggio … In just 8 games at Camden Yards, Biggio has beaten up on the bad Orioles just like Gleyber Torres. He has a 1.252 OPS, a 524 wOBA, .486 ISO and in basic fucking terms he has 5 homers in 41 plate appearances. So basically one every other game. The last time he saw a soft tossing righty on the mound in Trevor Richards he put up 34 FD points.
- Tommy La Stella
- Congrats to Tommy La Stella for being the one random 2B I mentioned today.
THIRD BASE
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Matt Chapman
- Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
Honestly, I am kinda glad that Bichette is out tonight because this position is just fine without him.
- Trea Turner
- Corey Seager
- Tim Anderson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Mike Trout
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Juan Soto
- Eloy Jimenez
Outfield – Tier 2
- Brandon Nimmo
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Joc Pederson
- Nelson Cruz
Outfield – Value
- Jacoby Jones … Near elite play. If you dont like fading 35% owned opto plays then play him.
- Anthony Santander
- Byron Buxton
- Nick Markakis
BEST CONTEST REFRESHER
These are the things I look for the most and encourage you to do it as well. We are all going to chase big $ contests w/ multiple lineups and that is fine, but you need balance in your MLB portfolio, so add the Dongers Club Growth Funds:
- 10x to first: This one is going to be hard for many of you but it’s the #1 golden rule to staying profitable during the MLB grind. You need these contests mixed in more than you realize. What is 10x to first? It means that the prize for 1st Place which everyone obsesses with is 10x the entry fee. So yeah, that means a $10 contest pays out $100 to first. Or my favorite $100 pays out $1000. You are thinking what’s the point? These type of contests usually aren’t as common and they’re a waste of time, I want my 50x to first!! Well, guess what. You will find that you win these 10x to first contests far often and that type of boost is way better than any other you will find. They’re smaller and usually have folks who are late registering their contests in them. Find these. Play these.
- Less than 1,000 Users: Very simple rule. Avoid contests that have too many users. A big misconception is that MME is hard to beat and you cant beat someone with a single lineup if they have maxed out the limits on a contest. Not true. The more lineups they are putting in the chances are more bad lineups as well. It comes down to the TOTAL number of users you have to beat. Fewer is better.
- Get out of the $1 and $3 and $5 contests: If you are living here, you aren’t about making money. Sorry.
- Play a 3-man to bust a slump: Yes, they are full of what folks call Sharks. No, they are not invincible. When you’re in a slump, play one of these.
- Corey Seager – SS – Dodgers – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Joc Pederson – OF – Dodgers
- Vlad Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays
- Cavan Biggio – 2B – Blue Jays
- Asdrubal Cabrera – 3B – Nationals
- James McCann – C – White Sox
- Mike Trout – OF – Angels
- Jacoby Jones – OF – Tigers
- BONUS …………………. Trea Turner – SS – Nationals