2020 PRESEASON PRO
Corey Parson | Dr. Roto | Ben Heisler | Matt Bayley | Kimra Schleicher | Shawn Childs | Bill Enright | Ian Ritchie | Scott Atkins | Darren Summer | Mark Deming | John Rozek | Chad Schroeder | Frankie Taddeo | Roy Larking
SLEEPER: RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers was the number one running back in the nation coming out of high school and had a successful career at Florida State. However, there will be some people who think that his performance in college was underwhelming. Let me clear this up for you right now: Akers’ performance in college was exceptional. Florida State struggled all year offensively and even fired their head coach in the middle of Akers’ senior season. Akers was the reason the team did as well as they did, and he showed flashes of potential greatness at the pro level.
Akers is a compact runner who changes direction easily. He rarely goes down on first contact (a trait that all great NFL running backs possess), and he was one of the most effective screen pass receivers in college football. He also shows great patience and vision and sees running lanes before they open.
With Akers in the fold, the Rams have three players who can run the football. I can guarantee you that Akers is the best runner in this committee and will see most of the touches. I am expecting about 12 rushes and 4-5 receptions per game from Akers at a minimum. The only downside is that he will most likely be removed at the goal line, so his value is lower in standard formats than in PPR leagues. Regardless, Sean McVay will have fun using Akers in multiple ways, and he should provide many terrific highlights for Rams fans.
BUST: RB Sony Michel, New England Patriots
Michel might be one of the more controversial players in fantasy football. On the one hand, those who play in standard league formats seem to like Michel due to his solid goal-line presence (he scored seven rushing TDs last season). While those in PPR formats realize that Michel’s 12 receptions are a paltry number and that other running backs such as James White offer much better value late in drafts. Three major things stick out as to why Michel will be a huge bust this season: 1) Michel did not have any 100-yard rushing games in 2019. He had only two games where he rushed for over 90 yards. He seems to be more of a grinder and tough yardage runner than someone who can take it to the end zone on any given play. 2) Michel is coming off foot surgery this off-season. In the past two seasons, Michel has had knee surgery and now foot surgery. This concerns me as it seems like his body is breaking down at a relatively young age. 3) The Patriots need to see what Damien Harris can do. Harris was the Patriots’ 3rd round pick in 2019 out of Alabama. In college, Harris showed an explosive gear that Michel has not shown in the NFL. Look for Harris to get some of Michel’s first and second down carries and prove that he needs to be a significant part of the Patriots’ offense.
BREAKOUT: TE Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons
Two years ago, I came in second overall in the Fantasy Football Online Championship. One of the keys to my success was a unique drafting strategy where I took three running backs and two tight ends in the first seven rounds. That year, I made Zach Ertz from the Eagles my seventh-round pick, and he paid off with huge dividends. Since that epic run, I created a new philosophy: I have to try to find the seventh-round tight end who can out-produce his expected stats as Ertz did.
Look no further than Falcons TE Hayden Hurst. Hurst was a second-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens and was expected to be the team’s primary option at tight end. However, what was not expected was that Baltimore selected Mark Andrews in the third round of that same draft. Andrews went on to have a stellar season while Hurst dealt with injury problems and only had 13 receptions as a rookie. Last season, Hurst reached 30 receptions for 349 receiving yards in an offense predominantly based around the running game.
However, things are looking up for Hurst—in a huge way. The Atlanta Falcons traded a second-round pick for Hurst once Austin Hooper signed with the Cleveland Browns. Now Hurst steps into the Falcons’ lineup as the primary tight end in an offense that targeted Hooper 97 times in 2019. And while I don’t expect Hurst to see as many targets as Hooper, I think 75-80 targets are a reasonable expectation that could catapult Hurst into the conversation as a top-five tight end option in PPR formats. Moreover, Falcons QB Matt Ryan has continually praised Hurst this offseason, recognizing that his speed will help create mismatches. Hurst has a great opportunity to break out in 2020 and should be in consideration on all draft boards come Round 7.
COMEBACK: WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
It seems like forever since T.Y. Hilton has had a major fantasy impact, but in 2018 Hilton caught 76 passes for 1,270 yards and 6 TDs. Last year was an aberration for him as he dealt with a calf injury for the better part of the season and only played in 10 games catching a mere 45 passes. Compounding the issue was that Hilton (and all of the Colts) went from playing with Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett. No knock on Brissett, but Luck is a once in a generational-type talent while Brissett struggled mightily with his consistency.
In 2020, the Colts have fixed their quarterback issues, signing ex-Charger Philip Rivers to lead the team in 2020 and beyond. Rivers is a future hall-of-fame player who can make all the throws necessary for the Colts to compete at the highest level. What does this mean for Hilton? It means that he will see a ton of targets as the team’s WR1 from a quarterback who knows how to hit him in stride and give him the greatest opportunity to rack up the yards after the catch.
Some naysayers will point to the Colts’ drafting of Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman in the second round of the last two drafts as a reason to not draft Hilton. This might prove to be a very costly fantasy error. Campbell was injured for his rookie campaign, and Pittman has not had an opportunity to work out with the team due to the pandemic. This should leave Hilton as the clear recipient of the target share and as someone who fantasy players can draft to help them win a fantasy championship.
STASH & CASH: RB Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers
People will point to a crowded Chargers backfield and shy away from drafting Kelley. I am counting on that as I think Kelley has the talent to emerge as a rushing threat during this fantasy season. Kelley had over 2200 rushing yards and 24 TDs in his last two seasons at UCLA. He also showed decent hands out of the backfield, catching 38 passes in that time. I like Kelley because he is fast (4.49 in the 40) with terrific balance. Justin Jackson is more of a grinder, while Kelley can be a game-breaker. He is the perfect complement to Austin Ekeler, and I can see him getting many first and second down carries by Week 7 and beyond. Lastly, Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn specifically said that he anticipated Kelley getting playing time as a rookie. I think the entire Chargers coaching staff knows what type of talent he is and will not hesitate to give him the opportunity as soon as he is ready.
