Running Backs
Saquon Barley, NYG (DK – $8,900/FD – $8,600)
The Giants should have Barkley back this week after returning to practice on Monday. Over his first two games, he gained 274 combined yards with one TD and seven catches while averaging 18 touches per contest. On the year, New York averages 4.9 yards per rush with their RBs scoring three TDs with a slower start than expected in the passing game (25/163/1). The Giants should have all their starters in the receiving core this week, which will help the scoring and passing value of their offense. The Cardinals rank seventh in the NFL defending RBs (21.77 FPPG). Arizona played four of their six games at home. They allow 4.5 yards per rush to RBs while showcasing risk vs. RBs in the passing game (24/220/2 on 26 targets). Barkley is a high volume RBs, who looks poised to post an impact game. Possible 150-plus combined yards with a minimum of one TD and five-plus catches.
Dalvin Cook, MIN (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,300)
Six games into the 2019 season, Cook is the second-highest scoring RB in PPR leagues (22.93 FPPG), but he trails the top spot by about 44 Fantasy points. His game has been more steady than explosive (between 19.00 and 28.10 Fantasy points) in five games. Last week Cook had a season-low of 54 combined yards with one TD and two catches. The Vikings tend to have him on the field for about 68 percent of their plays while averaging 22.3 touches per game. The Lions allow 30.40 Fantasy points per game to RBs (30th). Every opponent gained 145 combined yards or more by their RBs against Detroit with six TDs and 29 catches. The Lions allowed 5.1 yards per carry and 11.2 yards per catches, which shines big plays for Cook. Minnesota will feature the run game in Week 7, setting up a possible impact game for Cook if he hits on a pair of TDs or multiple big plays.
David Johnson, ARI (DK – $7,800/FD – $7,400)
Johnson went from DOA to Fantasy owners midweek to GOD on Sunday after his back cleared up. He gained 102 combined yards with two TDs and six catches vs. the Falcons while being on the field for 75 percent of the plays run by the Cardinals. His best value over the previous four games came in the passing game (23/260/2 on 33 targets). Johnson averages 17.7 touches per game while losing some touches to Chase Edmonds in the last two games (153 combined yards with two TDs and five catches) while facing two weak defenses (CIN and ARI). Johnson did land on the injury report this week with an ankle issue, which may end up being minor. The Giants fell to 24th in RB defense (26.83 FPPG). Three teams gained over 200 combined yards against New York (TB – 212 yards with six catches, MIN – 293 yards with seven catches, and NE – 203 yards with one TD and 13 catches). An intriguing matchup, but I expect the Giants to press the line of scrimmage, forcing Kyler Murray to beat them in the deep passing game. Also, his touches may not be high enough to support his higher salary.
Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $7,500/FD – $7,800)
Kamara rode out four games with a backup QB, and now he’s dealing with an ankle issue that has the hint of a “high ankle sprain.” Last week he didn’t look right, which led to only 2.8 yards per rush and five yards per catch. The Saints had him on the field for a season-low 59 percent of their snaps. Kamara only has two TDs over six games with both coming in Week 3 in Seattle. Over his first 31 games in the NFL, he scored 31 TDs. Overall, Kamara averages 19.8 touches per game. The Bears lost their way in their last game defending RBs (OAK – 218 combined yards with three TDs and eight catches). RBs will have the best value vs. Chicago in the passing game (37/293 on 50 targets in five games). The Bears lost one of their better run defensive lineman this week, which should help the Saints. Real tough to trust with a risky matchup. Pure against the grain play.
Aaron Jones, GB (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,600)
After a great game in Week 5 (182 combined yards with four TDs and seven catches on 26 touches), Jones played second fiddle to Jamaal Williams against the Lions. He gained only 60 yards with four catches on 15 touches while seeing the field for a season-low 49 percent of the time. Jones did miss on a long wide-open passing TD plus saw his running mate hit on the impact run on the night. The Raiders played well defending RBs in four games (17.70, 14.00, 18.20, and 21.50 Fantasy points) with one disaster showing in Week 3 (MIN – 230 combined yards with three TDs and five catches). Oakland allows 3.7 yards per rush with RBs scoring five TDs. Jones is now overpriced in his new split role.
Leonard Fournette, JAC (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,900)
Fournette has worked his way to 9th in RB scoring (18.05 FPPG). Over the previous three games, the Jaguars gave him 28 touches per game, which led to 500 combined yards with one TD and 12 catches. Fournette only has one TD on the year with his most success coming in Week 4 (245 combined yards with two catches). The Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL vs. RBs (35.66 FPPG) with failure in five straight games (SF – 335 combined yards with three TDs and five catches, BUF – 161 combined yards with one TD and four catches, PIT – 209 combined yards with two TDs and 14 catches, ARI –256 combined yards with two TDs and six catches, and BAL – 140 combined yards with one TD and three catches). Pencil Fournette in four two or more TDs with 150 combined yards with value in the passing game. The RB show starts here in Week 7.
Mark Ingram, BAL (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,500)
Ingram ended up being a trap in Week 6 (74 combined yards with a TD and two catches) while seeing his Ravens’ QB steal his upside (19/152/1). Ingram has two games with over 100 yards rushing (14/107/2 and 16/103/3) while scoring seven TDs in six games. Baltimore had him on the field for only 38 percent of their plays last week, meaning Fantasy owners were beaten by the head coach in this game. He averages 16.3 touches per game with his best value coming on the road 48/254/6 in three games. Seattle is league average against RBs (24.73 FPPG) with struggled in three games (NO – 163 combined yards with two TDs and nine catches, ATL – 187 combined yards with eight catches, and CLE – 166 combined yards with two TDs and seven catches). Priced too high for me with not enough value in the passing game to fill his salary bucket in Week 7.
Chris Carson, SEA (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,600)
Carson finished as the fourth-highest scoring RB in Week 6 in DraftKings’ scoring. He gained 159 combined yards with a TD and four catches in 28 touches. Over the previous three games, Seattle gave him 82 touches (27.3 per game), leading to 427 combined yards with two TDs and nine catches. The Seahawks had him on the field for 80 percent of their plays over the last three games with Rashaad Penny battling a hamstring issue. The Ravens have four wins defending RBs (7.10, 12.10, 15.00, and 10.30 FPPG), but they lost their way in two contests (KC – 204 combined yards with two TDs and eight catches and CLE – 237 combined yards with four TDs and five catches). RBs have eight TDs vs. the Ravens. More of a grinder game, but his volume gives him a chance at this level.
Todd Gurley, LAR (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,100)
Just when Gurley was starting to get his sea legs (26.00 and 19.70 Fantasy points), he sat out last week’s game with a quad issue. Over his five games, he averaged 15.6 touches per contests with no games with over 19 touches. The Rams need to get more involved in the passing game (14/68) to help raise his floor. LA should have him back in the lineup on Sunday. Atlanta fell to 15th in RB defense (24.60 FPPG) after having their worst game of the year defending RBs in Week 6 (171 combined yards with three TDs and eight catches). The Falcons allowed over 32 runs per game over their previous three contests with lingering risk defending the pass. Favorable game if the Rams give him full time in touches.
Austin Ekeler, LAC (DK – $6,200/FD – $6,900)
The Chargers’ offense stopped printing Fantasy points in Week 6, which led to Ekeler posting his first empty stat line of the year (28 combined yards with three catches on eight touches). Over the previous two games with Melvin Gordon back on the field, Ekeler only has eight rushes for 21 yards lowing his season average per rush to 3.8 yards. He bailed out in Week 5 thanks to his 15 catches for 86 yards. LA had Gordon on the field for 60 percent of their plays last week compared to 45 percent by Ekeler. RBs have 40 catches for 263 yards on 51 targets against the Titans. Only a rotational player with a lead dog salary. It’s time to park Ekeler until his salary regresses into a playable area.
Marlon Mack, IND (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,100)
Mack carried the Colts to a victory in Week 5 against the Chiefs when he gained 148 yards with three catches on 32 touches. His other strong game came in Week 1 (25/174/1). After five games, he averages 21.6 touches per game with minimal value in the passing game (7/42). With a week of rest, his ankle should clear up. In 2018, Mack had one great game against Houston (24/148/1) that came in the playoffs. The Texans rank 21st in RB defense (26.22 FPPG) with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (36.60, 33.90, and 30.40). RBs only have two rushing TDs against Houston with the previous four opponents failing to gain over 95 yards rushing.
Melvin Gordon, LAC (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,600)
Gordon looks awfully boring in his first two games back on the field. He’s gained 86 combined yards with seven catches on 27 touches with weakness in his yards per rush (2.5) and his yards per catch (3.7). LA had him on the field for 60 percent of their plays last week, but the Chargers fell behind early for the second straight week. The Titans allow 4.2 yards per rush with RBs scoring three TDs. Not the right matchup in the daily games plus he has to walk before he can run.
Derrick Henry, TEN (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,500)
Henry had tough sledding in Week 6 (33 combined yards with one catch on 16 touches). Over his first five games, he scored five TDs. In his two homes starts, Henry gained 172 combined yards with two TDs and two catches, which sets his floor at about 15.5 Fantasy points in Tennessee. Overall, he averages 19.3 touches per game. The Chargers struggled with RBs in the previous two games (223 combined yards with one TD and eight catches and 208 combined yards with one TD and eight catches). Game flow is crucial and a change at QB could lead to more scoring chances. His salary gives him a chance if he hits on a long run or multiple TDs.
Tevin Coleman, ATL (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,200)
In his first two games back in the starting lineup, Coleman gained 158 combined yards with two TDs and two catches while being in the field for 55 percent of the RB plays in Week 6. Over this span, he averaged 18 touches per game while the 49ers ran the ball 81 times. Washington had a tough time with RBs in the previous three games (NYG – 186 combined yards with one TD and six catches, NE – 242 combined yards with two TDs and 11 catches, and 152 combined yards with one TD and 11 catches). I can’t expect another 40 rushes by San Fran even in a game that they are favored. More of a mid-teen guy due to his lack of upside in the passing game.
Devin Singletary, BUF (DK – $5,400/FD – $5,800)
The Bills will have their young RB back on the field this week after missing three games with a hamstring issue. Singletary flashed in Week 1 (98 combined yards with four catches) while starting his second game with six rushes for 57 yards and a TD before his injury. I’m sure he’ll split touches with Frank Gore, but game score should lead to him being active in this matchup. Miami allowed over 30.0 Fantasy points to their first four opponents, pushing them to 31st in RB defense. They allow 4.7 yards per rush with RBs scoring ten TDs. Possible flier even with a questionable role.
Davonte Freeman, ATL (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,100)
Freeman has been relevant in the Fantasy space in the previous three games, pushing him to 16th in RB scoring in PPR leagues. Over his recent uptick, he gained 288 combined yards with three TDs and 16 catches. Even with his success, Freeman gained only 3.5 yards per rush over this span. The Falcons gave him a season-high 72 percent of their snaps in Week 6. The Rams lost their way defending RBs in Week 1 (49.00 Fantasy points). Over the next four games, LA allowed under 28.00 Fantasy points to RBs in PPR leagues. The Rams allow only 3.5 yards per rush with RBs scoring eight TDs. Trending forward, but I don’t expect a big game in yards. If the Falcons fall behind, his value in the passing game gives him a chance at this level.
Matt Breida, SF (DK – $5,300/FD – $5,600)
Breida is the 20th ranked RB in PPR leagues. After his big game in Week 5 (129 combined yards with two TDs and three catches), he only managed 63 yards with four catches on 17 touches. On the year, Breida averages 15.4 touches per game with a slight bump in the passing game over the previous two weeks (7/42/1). Washington has risk vs. RBs in the passing game (42/321/2), which may be a window for his upside. Breida’s value is built on big plays while requiring a TD to payoff.
Latavius Murray, NO (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,300)
If Alvin Kamara can’t play this week, Murray will have a significant bump on touches. This matchup with the Bears isn’t ideal, but a TD and 5-plus catches give him a chance at filling his salary bucket. More of a follow than a target in Week 7.
Kerryon Johnson, DET (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,800)
Johnson received about 72 percent of the RB plays over the previous three games for the Lions. Over the last four games, he scored between 11.30 and 16.70 Fantasy points with his best opportunity coming in Week 4 (157 combined yards with two catches). Detroit gave him 21.3 touches in his previous three games. The Vikings rank 5th defending RBs (19.08 FPPG). Their only poor showing vs. RBs came in Week 2 (GB – 191 combined yards with two TDs and seven catches). Minnesota allows only 3.8 yards per rush with RBs scoring only one rushing TD. Even with three down value and plenty of touches, Johnson looks to be an against the grain play while expecting him to be a low percentage own.
Josh Jacobs, OAK (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,700)
Jacobs continues to be overlooked and undervalued in the daily space. I had him in my top lineup in Week 5, and he rewarded me with his best game of the season (143 combined yards with two TDs and three catches). His success came against a top defense. Over the previous two games, Jacobs had 24 touches per game. The Raiders have a top offensive line, and their lead RB has exceptional talent. Green Bay ranked 26th in RB defense with failure in two games (40.30 and 40.10 Fantasy points). The Packers allow 4.9 yards per rush with RBs scoring eight TDs. Sneak option with a TD being in the cards. His floor would be much higher with more chances in the passing game.
Joe Mixon, CIN (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,100)
Mixon is the 33rd ranked RB after six games with no game of value. Last week he delivered only 39 combined yards with two catches on 12 touches. Game score led to him only being on the field for 48 percent of the plays run by the Bengals. Mixon hasn’t scored a rushing TD all year with one game with over 109 combined yards with one catch. He averages 15.5 touches per game. The Jaguars are 26th in the NFL defending RBs (27.15) with most of the damage coming in Week 5 (346 combined yards with four TDs and seven catches). Wrong kind of fight with questions with his playing time.
Jamaal Williams, GB (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,400)
After getting knocked out of Week 4 and missing a game, Williams was the top RB for the Packers in Week 6. He gained 136 combined yards with one TD and four catches on 18 touches. Green Bay had him on the field for 53 percent of the RB plays vs. the Lions. Game flow player with more risk than reward.
David Montgomery, CHI (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,900)
The Bears’ offense has been a mess over the first five games. They’ve gained only 3.4 yards per rush with failure as well in the passing game (6.1 yards per pass attempt). Chicago scored only two rushing TDs in the year. Montgomery has 71 touches over his previous four games, which led to 252 combined yards with two TDs and eight catches. The Saints improved to sixth in RB defense (19.38 FPPG) after holding their last three opponents to only 193 yards rushing with two TDs. He looks rather dull, but he does have talent. Maybe a bye week helps this offense find its way in Week 7.
Carlos Hyde, HOU (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,300)
Hyde may be more than a thing in 2019. After his best game (130 combined yards with a TD and one catch), he moved to 23rd in RB scoring in PPR leagues. He has a TD in three of his previous four games while averaging 21.3 touches per game in his three previous contests. Hyde has minimal value in the passing game (6/22). The Colts sit 8th in RB defense (22.24 FPPG) despite a disaster game in Week 1 (46.90 Fantasy points). Indy allows 5.1 yards per rush with RBs scoring five TDs. Possible TD pointing to mid-teen points.
Tarik Cohen, CHI (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,500)
After an excellent 2018 season (1,169 combined yards with eight TDs and 71 catches), Cohen only has 165 combined yards with one TD and 20 catches on 37 touches over five games. A talented pass-catcher who Chicago needs to get involved in their offense. Only a dart.
Kenyan Drake, MIA (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,400)
Drake came a TD short of being a value in Week 6 when he gained 70 yards with six catches on 16 touches against the Redskins. Over his previous three games, Miami gave him 14.3 touches per game, with about 60 percent of the RB playing time. The Bills are 12th in RB defense with no team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Dolphins can’t score, and I expect more regression on the road.
Wendell Smallwood, WAS (DK – $3,500/FD – $4,500)
The low hanging fruit at RB this week looks to be Smallwood with Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson landing on the injury report. I don’t expect Thompson to play due to his toe injury, and Peterson has a quad injury. The 49ers played great on defense over the previous two games with success defending the run (4.1 yards per rush with one rushing TD).
