The Charlotte Motor Speedway road course is the newest track on the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule, and this Sunday, drivers and crew chiefs will get their second chance to try to master the 2.28-mile Roval.
There is always an adjustment period at any new track, especially at a road course, and since the Bank of America Roval 400 is also the final race of the opening round of the playoffs, it is only going to raise the intensity level.
In last year’s inaugural race, we saw several big names make mistakes, and many of the frontrunners were eliminated on a wild restart around the midway point. After all was said and done, eight drivers who qualified in the Top 10 also finished in the Top 10, but the added attrition resulted in some surprise names popping up in the Top 15 and Top 20. In fact, five drivers who started 27th or worse finished 16th or better, and six drivers gained double-digit spots.
From a DFS standpoint, I prefer to take a balanced approach with my lineups at DraftKings, focusing on strong finishes and place differential points rather than chasing dominator points with a bunch of high-priced options. For one, there are a limited number of dominator points available in a 109-lap race, and with all the pit strategy that is used at road courses, the lead tends to cycle between a few drivers and spread out the laps led points that are available.
I am not opposed to using one high-priced dominator to anchor my lineups this weekend. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson are both strong candidates. Looking at how qualifying played out, I also think you can build a winning lineup skewed mainly towards the place differential category. I have no problem going with six drivers who I feel have a chance to challenge for a Top 10 or Top 5 while gaining double-digit spots, even if none of them end up leading a bunch of laps.
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Must-Own Drivers
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)
Truex has to drop to the rear of the field after an engine change, but it really doesn’t change his DFS outlook for me. He’s been almost unstoppable at the road courses the last couple of years, logging three wins and two second-place finishes in the last six races alone. If not for being spun out while leading on the final lap at the Roval last year, that line could read four wins and two runner-up finishes in the last six road races. In addition to piling up wins, Truex has led laps in eight straight road races, leading more than 20 laps four times in that span.
Denny Hamlin ($10,400)
Hamlin has been on a tear at the road courses, reeling off nine straight Top 15s and piling up a series-leading six Top 5s in that stretch. He will have to start 28th after going to a backup car just before qualifying, but he showed plenty of speed in practice Saturday. With a legitimate chance to gain upwards of 25 spots, Hamlin should be in the mix to finish as the top scorer at DraftKings Sunday.
Chase Elliott ($9,600)
After strong practice times, Elliott ended up being the only Hendrick Motorsports driver to qualify outside the Top 5. I actually think starting 19th provides a boost to his fantasy value. He finished sixth at the Roval last year and has four finishes of sixth or better in the last five road course events, winning back-to-back races at Watkins Glen. Elliott has also led the second most laps of any driver at the road courses since joining the Cup Series. Look for Elliott to challenge for the win while gaining 15-plus spots in the process.
Cash Plays
Kyle Busch ($10,700)
With Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott both available for less and starting deeper in the field, I’m not sure Kyle Busch is the best value this weekend when it comes to maximizing the overall upside of your lineups. That being said, he should still be a popular pick and one of the top scorers. He starts 17th, but over the last 10 road course races, he leads all drivers with eight Top 10s and an 8.0 average finish. Don’t hesitate to roster him in cash games.
Kurt Busch ($9,000)
Busch has been the model of consistency at road course in recent years. In fact, he is tied for the series lead with eight Top 10s in the last 10 road course races. He has an 8.2 average finish overall in that span, and his worst finish is 13th. Starting back in 23rd, he should be one of the safest plays on the board this weekend. At the very least, I am expecting 40-plus fantasy points.
Ryan Newman ($8,300)
He just keeps grinding out solid finishes, and coming into the Roval, Newman has finished 12th or better in five of the last six races, gaining at least seven spots four times. He has shown he can make a similar charge to the front at road courses, gaining 18 spots and finishing 11th at the Roval last year and moving up 14 spots to finish seventh at Sonoma in June. Starting 24th this weekend, Newman again projects as a safe, solid midrange option. He’s perfect for cash lineups.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,600)
DiBenedetto has been a DFS force in his last three road course starts. He gained 15 spots and finished 13th at the Roval last year for the No. 32 team. This year for the No. 95 team, he gained 15 spots and finished fourth at Sonoma and gained 14 spots and finished sixth at Watkins Glen. After qualifying 18th, DiBenedetto is positioned for a similar performance this weekend.
Michael McDowell ($6,000)
It is tough to find reliable, cheaper options at road courses, but McDowell is your best bet to save a chunk of money in cash lineups without completing rolling the dice. He starts 22nd, and he has finished 18th or better in six of his last eight road course starts. Finishing 18th at the Roval last year. A Top 20 finish and a handful of differential points isn’t bad for $6,000.
GPP Specials
Kyle Larson ($9,400)
I think the lasting image of Larson’s first trip to the Roval will always be his destroyed car limping around the track on the final lap to gain the one spot he needed to advance in the playoffs. He actually led a race-high 47 laps in that same race and has the fastest car in terms of green flag speed. Larson started fifth in that race, and he will roll off seventh Sunday. I think you will want some exposure to Larson in case he picks up where he left off and dominates at the Roval once again.
Ryan Blaney ($9,200)
Even though Blaney won at the Roval last year, I think his salary and ninth-place starting spot will keep his ownership numbers down this weekend. However, he has followed up his win at the Roval with Top 5 finishes in both road course races this year, and I don’t think people realize just how good he is becoming at road courses. I like Blaney as a cheaper pivot to all the household names starting a little deeper in the field.
Erik Jones ($8,800)
Based on his results and starting spot, Jones would seem like a solid cash play this weekend. After all, he has five Top 10s in seven road course starts, and he rolls off 15th. However, he is in a must-win situation in the playoffs after last weekend’s disqualification, so a Top 10 finish isn’t going to cut it for Jones and the No. 20 team. I expect both he and his crew chief to be aggressive Sunday, making him an all-or-nothing DFS play.
William Byron ($8,600)
I wish his price tag was a little cheaper, but Byron has plenty of upside after grabbing the pole for Sunday’s race. He has been much faster at the road courses than his results suggest, and he led 21 laps at Sonoma after qualifying on the front row. If he goes out and leads a chunk of Stage 1 and comes away with a Top 10 finish, Byron could be a great mid-priced play. On the flip side, your day is done if he has trouble.
Clint Bowyer ($8,400)
Bowyer has been a high-risk, high-reward option on baseline this year, and his fifth-place qualifying run this weekend won’t change that. However, he has six finishes of 11th or better, including four Top 5s, in seven road course starts at Stewart-Haas Racing. He also finished third at the Roval last year. With legitimate Top 5 upside and some sneaky dominator potential and a midrange price, Bowyer could be a profitable addition to GPP lineups.
Matt Tifft ($5,700)
Tifft was a strong road course racer in the lower series, and the rookie has finished 28th and 24th in his first two road course starts at the Cup level. Those results don’t jump off the page, but after he qualified back in 36th, he gave himself a decent amount of differential upside. A Top 25 finish and around 25 fantasy points aren’t out of the question. If you are hunting for a punt play, Tifft is worth a flier.
Parker Kligerman ($5,100)
I am a little worried that he has to go to a backup car for an already underfunded team, but Kligerman does have a 25.8 average finish in four career road course starts, cracking the Top 30 in all of them and finishing 26th or better four times. He is also starting dead last, so if he is able to sneak into the Top 30 again Sunday, you are looking at around 25 fantasy points for a dirt-cheap price.