New England Patriots Team Outlook
In this New England Patriots Team Outlook, I will focus on each key aspect of the franchise: coaching, the draft, free agency, offensive line, schedule, defense and of course, each relevant Fantasy Football at the key positions: QB, RB, WR, TE and K.
Coaching
The Patriots have a great history over the last 18 seasons under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. They’ve won the AFC East in each of the previous ten seasons, 15 out of the last 16 years, and 16 of the 18 seasons while winning ten games or more in each of the last 16 years. New England has Six Super Bowl titles in nine trips under Belichick. Two of their previous three wins in the Super Bowl were improbable based on game situation and game score late in each contest.
Defensive Coaching
The Patriots finished 7th in the NFL in points allowed (296), which was a regression of 29 points from 2017 (296) and 75 points from 2016 (250). For the second straight year, New England ranked poorly in yards allowed (2017 – 29th and 2018 – 21st).
Linebacker’s coach Brian Flores left town to take over as the head coach for Miami. The Patriots didn’t have a defensive coordinator in 2018, and it appears Bill Belichick will run the defense this year.
Offensive Coaching
New England scored 436 points in 2018, which was the fourth highest total in the league. They’ve finished in the top four in the league in scoring in each of the last nine seasons. The Patriots slipped to fifth in the league in offensive yards. Josh McDaniels returns for another season as he looks positioned to take over as head coach when Bill Belichick retires. McDaniels has worked in New England’s system for 15 seasons after a brief two-year run as head coach for the Broncos (11-17) and one season as the offensive coordinator for the Rams.
Belichick has a 225-79 record with the Patriots over 19 seasons and a 261-123 record all time. Belichick needs 58 more wins to pass Don Shula for the most in the history of the NFL, which would require many more seasons of success. Bill has the most Super Bowl wins (6) and playoff wins (31) in the history of the league.
Patriots Free Agency Outlook
The Patriots defense took a hit with the loss of Trey Flowers who defected to the Lions. Flowers played well in all areas in 2018 while ranking highly in run defense and rushing the QB. DT Malcom Brown signed with Saints after a subpar season. Brown played well in run support over the previous two years as a rotational player after being selected in the first-round in 2015.
New England traded for DE Michael Bennett to hopefully offset some of the loss created by Flowers leaving.
DE Adrian Clayborn failed to make an impact as a part-time player in 2018 even with some value in stopping the run. He signed with the Falcons. CB Eric Rowe moved up to the Dolphins after playing only four games in 2018 due to a groin issue.
The only other players of value lost to the offense were WR Chris Hogan, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, and TE Dwayne Allen. All of these players lack starting upside. Patterson will be missed in the return game.
New England took a flier on veteran WR Demaryius Thomas. They also added Maurice Harris and Bruce Ellington for wide receiver depth. RB Brandon Bolden returned after spending one season in Miami.
With Rob Gronkowski retiring, the Patriots invested in two options to start at TE (Matt LaCosse and Austin Seferian-Jenkins).
New England Patriots Draft Outlook
The Patriots came out of the 2019 NFL Draft with ten players. Five of those players were selected in the first three rounds.
First Round, 32nd overall: WR N’Keal Harry, Arizona State
Finding a big target for Tom Brady was the first order of business for New England this draft season. The winning prize came at the end of the first round with WR N’Keal Harry. Bless with an excellent combination of speed, strength, and size; Harry should hit the ground running in 2019 helped by the best QB in NFL history.
Second Round, 45th overall: CB Joejuan Williams, Vanderbilt
In today’s pass-happy NFL, depth at CB has to be addressed when the opportunity arises. New England wanted a big physical corner to add to their already strong secondary. They choose CB Joejuan Williams in the second round. Williams adds value in press coverage, but he can’t make mistakes over the long field as they can lead to long plays due to his lack of foot speed. His best success should come vs. big WRs in the red zone.
Third Round, 77th overall: DE Chase Winovich, Michigan
Winovich comes into the league with a linebacker’s frame. His high motor and first step quickness will create edges vs. the run and rushing the QB. His next step is improving his field vision while learning a better feel for the developing play. His style works best when attacking the line of scrimmage, which may lead to some early weakness in pass coverage.
Third Round, 87th overall: RB Damien Harris, Alabama
Harris is a well rounded three-down back that has the game to shine if given the starting job. I thought he was the best back in this year’s draft. His ability to pass protect bolds well for his opportunity early in his career.
Third Round, 101st overall: OT Yodny Cajuste, West Virginia
Cajuste is a powerful player who needs to improve his technique and hands to reach his full potential. His foundation skill set and athletic ability points to upside. For now, his run blocking skills are ahead of his pass protection.
Fourth Round, 118th overall: G Hjalte Froholdt, Arkansas
Froholdt is another player built on power, but his blocking window tends to be narrow while losing to speed on too many plays. His experience at center is a plus. Hjalte will have the most value when attacking than playing on his heels.
Fourth Round, 133rd overall: QB Jarrett Stidham, Auburn
Stidham landed in an excellent spot to develop his skill set. Watching Tom Brady will help him understand what he needs to do to buy more time in the pocket without bailing on a developing play. His legs have value with the size and arm to have success in the NFL.
Fifth Round, 159th overall: DE Byron Cowart, Maryland
Cowart lost his way early in his college career after coming out of high school as a top prospect. Motivation and work ethic come to mind when reviewing his scouting report. Byron has to decide if he wants to be special or settle of mediocrity. The latter will lead to a short career in the NFL. His base skill set gives him upside with more work on his technique. He needs more urgency to his attack off the ball while losing the whiny bitch attitude that leads to too many bad penalties.
Fifth round, 163rd overall: P Jake Bailey, Stanford
Bailey averaged almost 45 yards per punt over his last two seasons at Stanford.
Seventh round, 252nd overall: CB Ken Webster, Ole Miss
Webster leaves college while falling short of expectations. He appears to have an excellent combination of speed, strength, and quickness, but his vision and feel for pass coverage in traffic leads to too much cushion and many blown plays. The Patriots have to be thinking of moving to him to safety where his ability to attack adds more value to his game. As a center field safety, his game could blossom while having the mentality to win in run support.
Patriots Offensive Line Outlook
The Patriots played from the lead in many games in 2017 leading to the 10th place finish in rushing yards (1,889). Ball carriers gained 4.2 yards per carry with 16 TDs and ten runs over 20 yards. New England had the second most passing yards (4.418) with 32 TDs and eight Ints. Their offensive line allowed 21 sacks and 68 QB hits despite losing their left tackle before the season.
LT Isaiah Wynn
Wynn expected to take over for Nate Solder in his rookie season after getting drafted 23rd overall in this year’s draft, but he blew out his left Achilles in mid-August costing him his rookie season. It will be a tall task to protect Brady’s blindside. Wynn projects as a guard in the NFL, but his experience at tackle should help New England until they find another stud option in the draft. Isaiah offers value in both run and pass blocking while falling short of NFL measurables for the left tackle position. The talent to be an edge, but he may need some time to develop at the next level.
LG Joe Thuney
Thuney has experience as well at tackle, but he’s just finding his way at guard. In his third year in the league after getting drafted in the third round, Thuney became a top pass blocker while regressing slightly in run blocking. His best asset will come in the run game while offering upside in vision and anticipation. His game is built on attacking quickly with an edge in speed and quickness. Joe started all 16 games in all three of his seasons in the NFL. Improving player who will be helped by a better player at left tackle.
C David Andrews
Andrews is another player from the University of Georgia who was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2015. Over the last three seasons, Andrews has been in the starting lineup in 46 of 48 games. His pass blocking is now considered an edge, but he did regress to his previous levels in the run game last year. Overall, David is a neutral player with enough on his resume to expect more growth going forward.
RG Shaquille Mason
Mason signed a five-year $50 million extension last August. Last year he played well in all areas leading to his third straight year of strong play. Run blocking has always been his strength. Last year his game did improve in pass protection.
RT Marcus Cannon
Cannon only once started all 16 games in his eight years with the Patriots. In 2016, Cannon played great in his only full season of work. Over the last two years, he’s been a league average player at best while missing 12 games. I expect him to be a place holder until incumbent Yodny Cajuste is ready to handle the starting job.
Patriots Fantasy O-Line Outlook
The Patriots have questions marks at both tackle positions, but they have talent on the roster. The interior of the line has strength in all areas, which is helped by a great QB who knows how to avoid negative plays. New England has a top eight offensive line with more room for growth if Wynn and Cajuste come quickly.
Patriots Offensive Schedule Outlook
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2018, which will work as our starting point for 2019. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
- LG Average is the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2018.
- Results are is the results for each team in the NFL.
- Adjustment is based on the 2018 league average and the 2018 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
The Patriots have a league average schedule for their running and passing games. Their toughest time running the ball will come against HOU, PHI, BAL, DAL, and PIT while gaining an edge in two games vs. the Dolphins plus the Chiefs and the Bengals.
They have three games (BAL and BUF X 2) against teams that played well against the pass in 2018. New England has four matchups (PHI, HOU, KC, and CIN) over the second half of the year vs. teams with weakness in pass coverage.
Patriots Offense Outlook
New England tends to run a high volume of plays each season while trying to be balanced if game score favorably presents itself. Last year they ran the ball 45.4 percent of the time with success in rushing TDs (18). As Tom Brady gets older, the Patriots would like to help him out by running the ball well. They added another top back this year, which bodes well if/when they play from the lead. New England also knows they have to score to win games in the NFL. More of the same unless Brady has an injury.
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Quarterbacks
Tom Brady
The career record of Brady is just dazzling. He’s won 10 or more games in 16 of 17 full seasons, which includes an 11-1 record in 2016 when he missed four games. His only year with fewer than ten wins came in 2002 when he went 9-7. Tom ranks 4th all-time in passing yards (70,514) with Peyton Manning (71,940) and Brett Favre (71,838) within reach this season. Brady trails Drew Brees (520) for the 2nd most passing TDs (517) with the next target being Peyton Manning (539). Brady leads all QBs in regular season wins (207) and playoff wins (30) while winning six Super Bowls.
In 2018, Brady ranked 9th passing attempts (570) and 7th in passing yards (4,355) while delivering 29 TDs and only 11 Ints. There is no disputing Tom’s greatness, but he’ll start the year at age 42. Brady lost his top TE, which leaves a massive hole at the position. New England signed Demaryius Thomas who looks to be past his prime plus they added a dynamic WR (N’Keal Harry) in this year’s draft.
The Patriots have RB talent, but their defense will give up plenty of yards. I respect his WR core enough to expect another 30 TDs with a run at 4,500+ yards. Some Fantasy owners will shy away due to his age, but they don’t see that it is easy to add another upside second QB to cover the possible downside risk. The bigger question remains if Brady can outlast Drew Brees to finish as the top QB all-time in passing yards and TDs.
Jarrett Stidham
After flashing in his freshman season (75-for-109 with 1,265 yards, 12 TDs, and two Ints), Stidham decided not to return to Baylor due to a scandal and the firing of most of the coaches. Jarrett ended up transferring to Auburn where he started in 2017 and 2018. Over the last two years, he passed for 5,952 yards with 36 TDs and 11 Ints. His overall plays faded previous year due to a poor supporting cast, weaker offensive line, and sinking confidence. Stidham’s regression led to him falling in this year’s draft. Overall, he completed 64.3 percent of his passes in college with an excellent TD to Ints ratio (48:13).
Jarrett ran the ball 103 times in 2017, but he gained only 153 yards with four TDs. Stidham needs more time to develop while owing a football IQ to play at the next level. His first step is to improve his feel within a fading pocket to help him gain a bigger passing window without pulling the ball down.
Other Options: Brian Hoyer, Danny Etling
Running Backs
Sony Michel
Coming into his rookie season, I expected a high-level of production for Michel after his success at Georgia (3,613 yards on 654 touches with 39 TDs and 64 catches while splitting time with the impressive Nick Chubb). Unfortunately, an August knee issue led to him missing the first game of the season plus hindered him multiple times over the year. When at his best during the year, Sony rushed for over 100 yards in four games in the regular season and twice in the playoffs.
He finished with 1,326 combined yards with 12 TDs and eight catches while touching the ball 18 times a game over his 16 games played. His best play came at home (ten TDs and five games with over 100 yards rushing). Last year the Patriots’ RBs ran the ball 445 times for 1992 yards and 17 TDs. Michel is the clear cut lead back, but the addition of Damien Harris does give New England another threat to steal touches. Look for the Patriots pull back the chances for Sony in 2019. Michel won’t see action on passing downs, and Harris will be a better option when New England wants to keep a run/pass option alive from the RB position. James White is the passing catching back who will see minimal early-down carries without an injury. I’ll set his bar at about 250 touches for 1,100+ yards and double-digit TDs.
Update 8/6/2019: Sony Michel had minor knee surgery in mid-June, but he looked lock and loaded for a productive season after the Patriots activated him off the PUP list in late July. New England will limit his chance in August in the preseason game. The reports have been positive with his growth in the passing game. My expectations were high on him in his rookie season, but the Patriots do have three viable options at RB in 2019. His knee issue may create just enough of a window to be discounted on draft day.
James White
Last year White had the best opportunity of his career, which led to career highs in rushes (94), rushing yards (425), catches (87), receiving yards (751), and TDs (12). Injuries in the backfield helped his chances, making James a great late RB2 over the first nine games (766 combined yards on 121 touches with ten TDs and 61 catches). Once Rex Burkhead returned to the field, the Patriots pulled back on the workload for White. He only had 60 touches over the last seven games while gaining fewer than 40 yards in three contest.
Against the Chargers in the playoffs, New England showcased him in the passing game (15/97). In 2018, the Patriots’ RBs caught 123 passes for 1,005 yards and eight TDs. White will average only three to five rushes per game, but he should be good for five catches a game. With 125 touches, a Fantasy owner can expect about 850 combined yards and five to seven TDs. His floor should be 175+ Fantasy points in PPR league making him a viable RB2 cheat.
Damien Harris
For me, Harris has the “it factor” an NFL team should be looking for in a lead back. He gives off the appearance of bigger back than his size (5’10” and 216 lbs.). His first step acceleration after downshifting in tight quarters gives him many winning plays. Damien drives through contact with a unique feel for finding more open field. Harris tests defense when reaching the second level of the defense with his vision and power. In his senior year at Alabama (1,080 combined yards with nine TDs and 22 catches on 172 touches), he failed to show growth over his previous two seasons (1,136 combined yards with four TDs and 14 catches and 1,091 combined yards with 11 TDs and 12 catches).
His pass-catching opportunity was short due to Josh Jacobs shining brighter in this area. Harris doesn’t fumble, and his game grades well in pass protection. For the Patriots, Harris becomes the insurance policy for Sony Michel plus gives New England that in between back that will stand tall in pass protection while being a threat to run and catch the ball. You could say he’s a better, more explosive vision of Rex Burkhead. Damien should receive between eight and touches per game while being tougher to time in the Fantasy market. Must handcuff for Sony Michel owners.
8/6/2019: There has been no negative news on the learning curve or play of Damien Harris in training camp, which bodes well for his value on the Patriots’ RB depth chart. I’m excited to see him play in the preseason while also understanding his best value may come late in the year for Fantasy owners.
Other Options: Rex Burkhead, Brandon Bolden, Nick Brossette
Wide Receivers
Julian Edelman
After starting the season with a four games suspension, Edelman regained his previous form over 12 games played. He caught 74 passes for 850 yards and six TDs on 108 targets. His stats projected over 16 games would come to 97 catches for 1,133 yards and eight TDs on 144 targets.
Julian was a stud in the playoffs (26/388 on 35 targets) helping the Patriots win their sixth Super Bowl. Last year the Patriots completed 200 passes for 2,633 yards and 18 TDs on 296 targets. At age 33, his game should start to decline, but Edelman is a hard worker with high catch resume. A nice steady WR who should catch 90+ balls for 1,000 yards and mid-tier TDs.
Update 8/6/2019: Julian Edelman broke his left thumb on July 25th, which gives him six full weeks to get healthy for the regular season. Edelman is a hard worker, and there is no doubt that he’ll be ready for Week 1 of the regular season.
N’Keal Harry
Over the last two seasons at Arizona State, Harry caught 155 passes for 2,230 yards and 17 TDs. For his size (6’2” and 227 lbs.), N’Keal has surprising speed (4.53 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine) while being beast with his strength. He’ll do all the dirty work at WR while catching a high number of jump balls. Harry can make moves in the open field, but he won’t make many huge plays scoring plays over a long field with his legs. Complete monster in the red zone while being open even if a defender is draping all over him in coverage.
He’ll beat speed with power plus defeat physical press corners with his legs. N’Keal needs to improve his route running and work on improving his release. The loss of Rob Gronkowski creates an excellent opportunity in his rookie season. Draft with confidence as a WR3 in PPR leagues while expecting 60+ catches for 800+ yards and a run at double-digit TDs.
Update 8/6/2019: The training camp reports on N’Keal Harry have been sluggish in early August. He’s been outplayed by lesser talented players while sliding on the preseason depth chart. As a Fantasy owner, I’ll take the negative news as a buying opportunity, which will lower his expected draft ADP in early August. If Harry has one dynamic preseason game, he’ll shoot up the draft board.
Demaryius Thomas
Decline has set into Thomas’s game over the last two seasons, which wasn’t helped by poor QB play in Denver. After a slow start with the Broncos (36/402/3 on 56 targets) over eight games), Demaryius was expected to see a bump in value after his trade to the Texans. In Houston, he caught about 70 percent (23) of his 33 targets for 275 yards and two TDs over seven games, but he struggled to get open on enough plays to steal chance away from DeAndre Hopkins. After playing in 111 straight games over seven seasons, Thomas suffered an Achilles injury in Week 16 forcing him to miss the last game of the year.
More of an afterthought in the Fantasy market until there is a cleaner update of his recovery from his injury. Also, Demaryius had an off the field incident involving an unfortunate car accident. Hopefully, he avoids a suspension in 2019. Worth a dart if the summer reports are positive on his health and his form looks improved.
Update 8/6/2019: Demaryius Thomas remains in a holding pattern for Fantasy owner as he continues to sit on the Patriots’ PUP list. His Achilles injury is improving while showing some bounce in his running in early August. A Fantasy owner needs to keep an open mind here while also paying close attention to his progress.
Phillip Dorsett
The Patriots resigned Dorsett in the offseason after making minimal progress in his second year in New England. Last he caught 32 of 42 passes for 290 yards and one TD, which remains well below his expected value after the Colts drafted him the first round in 2015. His season started with two good games (7/66/1 and 4/655/1) in his first four starts as a Julian Edelman replacement.
Over the last 12 games of the year, Phillip posted a zero in six games with no catches or targets. In his other seven games, he caught all 16 of his targets for 125 yards and one TD. Only an insurance policy while offering speed and quickness to the Patriots’ passing game.
Josh Gordon – Gordon applied for reinstatement on August 3rd. The NFL tends to work slowly on these matters, which forces Fantasy owners to gamble on Gordon value and opportunity in 2019. Last year Josh was a serviceable player for New England (40/720/3 over 11 games) after coming over during the season. It’s been five seasons since Gordon flashed elite WR1 upside with Browns in 2013 (87/1646/9).
Update 8/6/2019: The two WRs gaining the most press in training camp for the Patriots are Maurice Harris and Jakobi Meyers. Harris has a minimal resume in the NFL (40/432/1 on 65 targets) while flashing in one game in 2018 (10/124 in Week 9. Meyers signed with New England as an undrafted free agent out of North Dakota State where he shined last year (92/1047/4 on 122 targets). Jakobi may emerge as the best slot option behind Julian Edelman.
Other Options: Bruce Ellington, Maurice Harris, Braxton Berrios, Matthew Slater, Damoun Patterson
Tight Ends
Matt LaCosse
New England signed LaCosse for depth at TE in the offseason. After floating around the NFL for three seasons, the Broncos gave him his best opportunity in 2018. He caught 24 of his 37 targets for 250 yards and one TD. In college, Matt finished with 38 catches for 397 yards and six TDs. Only a low-level role player.
Other Options: Stephen Anderson, Ryan Izzo, Andrew Beck, Jakob Johnson
Kicker
Stephen Gostkowski
Over his 13 years in the NFL, Gostkowski made 87.4 percent of his field goal attempts with a high level of success from 50 yards or more (25-for-35). Entering 2016, Stephen never missed an extra point in the regular season. He whiffed on five of his 146 chances over the last three seasons. In 2018, he made 27 of his 32 field goal attempts leading to a 10th place ranking at the kicker position. Over his last eight years, Gostkowski averaged 36.1 FG attempts per year with well over 50 extra points each year. Stephen is an excellent kicker with a top five opportunity in most seasons.
Defensive Schedule
New England faces one team (BAL) that expects to have success running the ball in 2019 thanks to a running QB. Their best two games for their runs defense are the Steelers and the Eagles while having three other slightly favorable games (NYG and NYJ X 2) based on last year’s data. Both New York teams will be much better running the ball in 2019 thanks to their star RBs.
Playing in the AFC East should provide an edge for the Patriots’ pass defense. They have nine games (WAS, BAL, CIN, NYJ X 2, BUF X 2, and MIA X 2) vs. teams that struggled to throw the ball last year. Their tougher challenge defending the pass will come against KC and PIT with both teams having downgrades at WR (Loss of Antonio Brown and possible suspension of Tyreek Hill). If New England can man a pass rush, they have the secondary to produce some turnovers.
Defense
The Patriots allowed 4.9 yards per rush in 2018, but game score led to only 22.9 rushing attempts and the 11th ranking in rushing yards allowed (1,803). Their run defense tightened up in the red zone leading to only seven rushing TDs. They have up 11 runs over 20 yards.
New England finished 22nd defending the pass with QBs passing for 3,943 yards with 29 TDs and 18 Ints. Their defense had only 30 sacks.
Secondary
The strength of the 2019 defense will be the secondary again. CB Stephon Gilmore holds WRs to a low catch rate and minimal yards per catch. He’ll make some mistakes in TDs while falling short in Ints. Gilmore had 20 defended passed last year with neutral value in run support. CB Jason McCourty played well in his first year in New England. His cover skill came in above the league average with some risk vs. the run. Jason does allow too many big plays. CB Joejuan Williams gives the Patriots a big pass defender who will help in press coverage with improvement his value in the red zone.
S Devin McCourty hasn’t been an edge on three of his last four seasons in the NFL. He tends to be a sure tackler while doing a nice job in coverage. When at his best, Devin improves the run defense. CB Ken Webster may transition to safety at some point of his career, which will help ease the pain of replacing Patrick Chung who has never been a difference maker. Chung tackles well, but his defense is sliding vs. the run.
Linebackers
LB Dont’a Hightower missed 11 games in 2017 with an injury, which may have been part of the reason for his step back in value in 2019. Hightower tends to struggle to defend the run and in pass coverage. Other his tackling ability, his value looks to below the league average. Kyle Van Noy will make plenty of tackles (92) with some value in sacks (3) and in coverage (one Int and two defended passes), but his game ranks below the league average in all areas. Elandon Roberts is a rotational player against the run with weakness in coverage.
Defensive Line
Lawrence Guy is a top run defender while heading to the bench on passing downs. Last year he set a career high in tackles (59) with one sack. Byron Cowart is the only other player with upside on the interior of the defensive line. He tends to be an underachiever while offering some disrupting ability if he earns a starting gig. DE Michael Bennett has 56 sacks over his last seven seasons, but he’ll start the year at age 33.
New England hopes DE Derek Rivers can add value after missing most of his first two seasons with injuries after being selected in the third round in 2017. DE Deatrich Wise has a lot to prove after struggling in most areas in his first two years in the NFL. Chase Winovich will work as a pass rusher while having the size and speed to pick up the action at linebacker.
When looking at the 2018 Patriots’ defensive stats plus intake their weakness at the first and second levels of the defense, a Fantasy owner will get the sense it could be a long year for the New England getting offenses off the field. They lack a pass rush and the talent to attack at linebacker. The strength in the secondary will help minimize the damage in TDs in the red zone. The Patriots have a favorable schedule for their defense but weakness in playmakers to be a must play from week-to-week in the season-long Fantasy games.
