Derby rundown courtesy high stakes legend and horseracing handicapper Rob Benetti.
1 War of Will T: Mark Casse; J: Tyler Gaffalione 20-1 17 E-P 94 95 95 80
Bred for the distance, speeds a cut below the rest, several better….tossed. He will have to rush to the lead but I don’t see the talent to stay. Likely speed bump.
2 Tax T: Danny Gargan: J: Junior Alvarado 20-1 35 EEP 96 93 105 93
Will be sent with to lead w/ 1, 4, 6, 16, 19 – if not pushed, one of the speed horses could hang. I like this horse to stay/maybe get a piece/win. Has talent/heart! He’s my WIRE TO WIRE Hope/Long Shot today.
3 By My Standards T: Bret Calhoun; J: Gabriel Saez 20-1 15 P-L 97 80 99 102
I liked what I saw in the LA Derby. I see a horse that is improving, may relish the distance, but I like others more. I put him in my Oaks/Derby Double and had him in my top 6 until this morning but I like others a tad more.
4 Gray Magician T: Peter Miller; J: Drayden Van Dyke 50-1 31 E 80 90 90 80
Cut below the rest. I threw this horse out early on in the process.
5 Improbable T: Bob Baffert; J: Irad Ortiz Jr. 6-1 5 P-L 99 85 90 105
#2ish choice, could win. My fav of the 3 Baffert horses. I saw an improving horse in the Ark Derby,only beaten, not by much, by arguably the best 3 year old right now? I see him getting a better/shorter trip than Game Winner and Roadster, sitting off the pace and running strong down the stretch.
6 Vekoma T: George Weaver; J: Javier Castellano 20-1 22 EEP 97 105 115 85
He showed me a lot in the Blue Grass. He and #2 Tax will get to run their races, shorter trips, maybe stay clean and they both just may be good enough to hang on for a piece.
7 Maximum Security T: Jason Servis; J: Luis Saez 10-1 9-2 EPL 102s 90 95 110
My #1 choice. Improving horse who will stalk the leaders, wear them down and have enough to hold off the late chargers. We have not seen what he is capable of because he hasn’t really been tested. Today we’ll see how versatile and strong he really is. He will fire out of the gate, be close to the lead pack, and have the heart and talent to win.
8 Tacitus T: Bill Mott; J: Jose Ortiz 10-1 5 EPL 97 90 95 100
Fits my profile nd passed my eye test the last time out, improving, style to stalk, stay near, and heart to go distance. In my top 5.
9 Plus Que Parfait T: Brendan Walsh; J: Ricardo Santana Jr. 30-1 55 P-L 84 91 93 94
Cut below the rest. I threw this horse out early on in the process.
10 Cutting Humor T: Todd Pletcher; J: Corey Lanerie 30-1 24 P-L 95 83 83 100
Went 1 1/8 in 1:46, 3 sec faster than any of this group who have gone 1 1/8, Pletcher w/improving 3yr old but not vs these.
11 Haikal T: Kiaran McLaughlin; J: Rajiv Maragh 30-1 CL 95 85 90 102
SCRATCHED
12 Omaha Beach T: Richard Mandella, J: Mike E. Smith 4-1 ELP 101 90 90 105
13 Code of Honor T: Shug McGaughey; J: John Velazquez 15-1 13 P-L 95 90 95 95
Cut below the rest. I threw this horse out early on in the process.
14 Win Win Win T: Mike Trombetta; J: Julian Pimentel 15-1 15 P-L 99s 80 95 105
This horse will not win but it’s late running style and willingness to go the distance means he has a chance to fill out the exotics.
15 Master Fencer T: Koichi Tsunoda; J: Julien Leparoux 50-1 52 n/a
Cut below the rest. I threw this horse out early on in the process.
16 Game Winner T: Bob Baffert; J: Joel Rosario 5-1 6 EPL 97 95 95 100
I’m not buying this horse. Ran it’s best at SA in a short field of 6, good trip, and ran 2nd, 1:51. Beatable but likely in one exotic/hedge with Roadster.
17 Roadster T: Bob Baffert; J: Florent Geroux 6-1 10 P-L 98 93 93 100
Similar to above, but his style lends itself to todays pace. I like him more than Game Winner due to his late running style. He could settle in, let the field do their thing and pass many down the stretch.
18 Long Range Toddy T: Steve Asmussen; J: Jon Court 30-1 49 P-L 95 85 90 90
Cut below the rest. I looked a few times but have several who I covet more.
19 Spinoff T: Todd Pletcher; J: Manny Franco 30-1 51 EPL 95 95 95 100
This horse fits my profile but the bad draw gives me serious concern. Good Preakness horse?
20 Country House T: Bill Mott; J: Flavien Prat 30-1 62 CL 95 80 80 99
Cut below the rest. I threw this horse out early on in the process.
21 Bodexpress T: Gustavo Delgado; J: Chris Landeros 30-1 99 EP 96 90 90 95
Cut below the rest. I threw this horse out early on in the process.
My top horses are #7 Maximum Security (9/2) and #5 Improbable (5/1).
I think they are a cut above the rest and have drawn excellent slots. Both will save ground, stalk, and make their moves turning home. I see Maximum Security moving first with Improbable in tow and they’ll begin to reel in Tax, Vekoma and the tiring/fading Game Winner.
My next four with a chance to win and the focus of my wagering strategy will be the #2 Tax and #6 Vekoma (speed maybe stay?), #8 Tacitus (tactical speed, power and heart to want 1 1/4), #16 Roadster – I think he will be able to break – slide left stay out of trouble and maybe come running at the end.
I believe that the 6, 2, 1, 4, 16, 19, and maybe a couple of others will be working hard to get to the front. The start should give my horses some space to settle in behind, so they can stalk, and a pace to run into when the group ahead tires.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that one of these horses could get out to a quick but not feverish pace and wire this thing. It’s why I have the #2 Tax and #6 Vekoma in my top 6 horses. I think they’ll both like the surface and have the talent and heart to stay vs this group. Especially if the pace is only moderate and the track is wet.
The Weather: I am planning on it raining a bunch and not worried if it isn’t. Next to Roger Bossard, CD is the best at getting that track Derby ready!
Wagering Strategy
I will be boxing my top 6 horses in a trifecta and exacta. I will also be singling my top pick, #7 Maximum Security on top of a few diverse exactas, tris and a super or two.
$1 Trifecta Box: 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 17 (Cost $120)
$2 Exacta Box: 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 17 (Cost $60)
$ .10 Superfecta Box: 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 17 (Cost $36)
$1 Trifecta: 7 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 16, 17 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 16, 17 (Cost $56)
$10 Exacta: 7 / 2, 5, 6, 8, 17 (Cost $50)
I did have the 13 in my Oaks/Derby Double for a buck and am alive with the 3, 5, 7, 8, 10, 16 in the Derby today. That wager shows that I was a tad higher on the 3, 10 and 16 yesterday afternoon but after the final look, I went with a couple of speed horses and Roadster to fill out my wagers today.
Is that being indecisive or thorough? Time will tell.
Good Luck to All!
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