Super Bowl LX Under-The-Radar Prop
Under-The-Radar Respected Money Play For Super Bowl LX
Written by Frank Taddeo @RespectedMoney on X
Strong data can transform wagering on the Super Bowl from mere speculation into a very profitable process simply by revealing patterns, efficiencies, and probabilities that aren’t always obvious to public bettors.
Leveraging metrics can lead to the ability of identifying “hidden” value—where the actual probability of an outcome can exceed the odds offered by oddsmakers. This approach doesn’t guarantee returning to the windows to cash tickets, but it helps minimize decreasing bankrolls over time through evidence-based decisions rather than making investments based solely on bias (fandom) or guesses.
In Super Bowl LX, my model lands on a play that is flying under-the-radar. Seattle is favored by 4.5 points across nearly all sportsbooks, which resulted in a projected 69% win probability. However, instead of wagering on the final score, the data leads us to an alternative market involving the outcome of the first quarter.
Let’s dive in!
A Super Bowl rematch over a decade in the making. #SBLX pic.twitter.com/xrE8WtIGx5
— NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2026
2025 Regular Season: First Quarter Scoring and Defense Data
The Seattle Seahawks finished the 2025 regular season with a 14-3 record, scoring a total of 483 points (2nd most in NFC).
Below is the breakdown specifically for the first quarter outcomes of all 17 regular season games for Sam Darnold & Co.
| Seattle 1Q | Total Points | Average per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring (Points Scored) | 106 | 6.24 |
| Defense (Points Allowed) | 51 | 3.00 |
The data supports the Respected Money action, as Seattle was exceptionally strong in the first quarter of games, outscoring opponents by a total of 55 points (106-51). The 106 points ranks #1 in 1Q scoring while the 51 points allowed ranks #2 in 1Q defense.
2025 Postseason: First Quarter Scoring and Defense Data (Two Playoff Games)
The Seahawks, as the NFC’s No. 1 seed, had a first-round bye followed by two playoff victories: a 41-6 Divisional Round win over San Francisco and a 31-27 win over the Rams in the NFC Championship.
| Seattle 1Q | Total Points | Average per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring (Points Scored) | 27 | 13.5 |
| Defense (Points Allowed) | 3 | 1.5 |
Seattle has continued their first-quarter dominance in the playoffs, outscoring opponents 27-3 in the postseason.
Respected Money Play: 1st Q Seattle ML -150
Over their 19 games this season, Seattle has scored 133 total points (7.0 per game) while allowing only 54 (2.84 per game).
On the flip side, New England, with a young quarterback under center, has started out slow over the first 15 minutes in all three playoff wins, resulting in only 7 points scored, while allowing 10 points.
The data here, combined with the likelihood of a conservative gameplan early from Mike Vrabel to protect his young signal-caller, supports a 0.75 unit play on Seattle 1Q ML as well as a 0.25 on Seattle 1Q -0.5 +105.
Vegas vs FullTime YTD: 78-101 (+17.31 UNITS) 📈
