Thursday Night Football Respected Money Breakdown: Rams vs Seahawks
Expert betting preview and projections for the pivotal NFC West clash on Thursday Night Football.
Written by Frank Taddeo @RespectedMoney on X
The Thursday night showdown between Matthew Stafford and the Rams (11-3) and Sam Darnold and the Seahawks (11-3) will have major implications on the NFC West crown as well as the top overall playoff seed in the NFC.
The Rams, despite winning the first matchup 21-19 in Week 11, have moved to 1.5-point underdogs with an over/under listed at 42.5 total points by oddsmakers. The total, which opened at 45, witnessed sharp action following a forecast of rain and wind gusts near 30 mph driving the number down to 42.
Our “Vegas vs Fulltime Projections”, focusing on data analytics exclusive to FullTime premium members, heads into Week 16 up +11.15 units on the year.
Let’s take a deeper dive into the best plays by focusing on my Vegas Respected Money targets in conjunction with our elite-winning Fulltime Fantasy Projections!
Top Values By The Projections
RB Kyren Williams OVER 9.5 Rec Yds (FanDuel)
Williams has eclipsed this number in back-to-back contests. Seattle is allowing an average of 5.7 receptions and 40.1 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs. 18 running backs have surpassed this demand vs ‘Hawks this season. With Los Angeles without star WR Davante Adams, as well as potentially poor weather conditions, will likely result in more check downs by Stafford. The versatile RB has surpassed this demand in 9/14 (64.3%) games this season.
TE Colby Parkinson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Parkinson turned a season-high 86% snap percentage last week into season-highs in targets (7), receptions (5), and receiving yards (75). With Adams (hamstring) out for Week 16, it is time for us to invest in an emerging player at the tight end position who has posted 4+ receptions in four of his last six games. The oddsmakers have been unable to properly price the veteran TE who has witnessed his receiving yards market increase over the last five games from 12.5 to 21.5 to 23.5 to 25.5 to 29.5 – all numbers he exceeded (14, 41, 27, 32, 75). Expect heavy volume for Parkinson against a Seattle defense that is allowing the second-most receptions (6.5 per game) and the fourth-most receiving yards (68) to the TE position.
RB Zach Charbonnet Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (BETMGM)
To the frustration of fantasy managers Charbonnet has out-snapped Kenneth Walker in 6 of 13 games – including last week’s win over the Colts (33 to 25). With inclement weather in the forecast, a strong dose of the Seattle ground game could be on tap resulting in sizeable value on a projection of 32.5 yards – a demand Charbonnet has gone beyond in 9 of 13 games (69.2%). After exceeding this market number in the first matchup with the Rams gaining 37 rushing yards, there is certainly expected value to be found facing a Rams defense that has allowed 14 other running backs to go beyond this projection this season.
Vegas vs FullTime YTD: 54-74 (+11.15 UNITS) 📈
