Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 15

Last week’s NFC North showdown lived up to the hype, although the game wasn’t as high-scoring as we expected. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 15 breaks down an NFC West rivalry with even more at stake.

Staying alive in a tightly-packed division is at stake as the 6-7 San Francisco 49ers host the surging 7-6 Los Angeles Rams. The second-place Rams have won three of four since getting healthier. They also beat the Niners back in Week 3, 27-24.

Meanwhile, San Francisco has no margin for error. Kyle Shanahan’s squad is in must-win territory and views all their remaining games as playoff contests. For the reigning NFC champs to keep their postseason hopes alive, they must even the score with a Rams team that just put up 44 points on the Bills.

This game is about as close as one would expect. San Fran is favored by 2.5 points and the total of 49.5 invites plenty of fantasy action.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Los Angeles Rams	15	9	25	15	16
San Francisco 49ers	4	7	7	2	11

Sean McVay has done a masterful job rallying his troops. The Rams have been devastated by injuries on both sides of the ball. After starting the season 1-4, the Rams have won 6-of-8 to climb into second place in the wide-open NFC West.

After hovering near the bottom of the league, LA is now an average offense that has looked formidable over the last six weeks. Getting key players back has been paramount.

Speaking of injuries, San Francisco has had their share. The 49ers have been missing Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey for the majority of the year. And McCaffrey isn’t the only running back to go down. In fact, the team may be down to their fourth starting running back to open Week 15.

However, the team continues to overcome adversity on offense. The Niners are one of the most balanced attacks in the league that continues to create chunk plays and produce points.

The atmosphere for this contest will mimic a playoff game. And that includes the pressure and ramifications for the loser. This should be another intriguing watch.

Los Angeles Offense

After struggling through the first half of 2024, Matthew Stafford has been a solid fantasy option. Stafford has finished as a top-10 weekly QB in four of his last seven. He’s tossed 16 touchdowns since Week 8 and has not thrown an interception since Week 10. In the previous game versus San Francisco, Stafford threw for 221 yards and a score.

However, this is a below-average matchup for Stafford. The 49ers have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to the position. Additionally, the Niners have held seven consecutive quarterbacks under 250 passing yards. Therefore, Stafford should be viewed as a modest QB2 with upside.

RB Kyren Williams will be on the RB1/2 borderline. In Week 3, Williams had a season-high 31.6 PPR points and three touchdowns against the 49ers. Overall, San Francisco has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs and Williams will command more than 75% of the snaps.

Puka Nacua comes off his best game of the year, snagging 12-of-14 targets for 162 yards and a pair of scores (1 rushing) against the Bills. He has topped 100 yards in three of four. Last year, he caught 19-of-26 targets against the 49ers. However, the matchup isn’t as easy in 2024. Only two teams have allowed fewer yards to opposing wide receivers than San Francisco. Still, Nacua is a locked-in WR1 with top-3 potential any week.

It is nearly impossible for opponents to shut down both of LA’s elite wideouts. Cooper Kupp has been a top-15 weekly wideout in three of four. Additionally, he’s faired well versus the Niners, topping triple-digits in three of his last four. He remains a solid WR2. However, he is a little more volume-dependent as the clear No. 2 option.

The Rams’ WR3 role should probably be ignored. Demarcus Robinson is a good touchdown producer but hasn’t practiced all week. After Robinson, things are difficult to handicap. Tutu Atwell looks like the best bet as a DFS dart throw.

At tight end, the Rams will utilize a committee. Colby Parkinson will see the most snaps but Davis Allen and Hunter Long will also play. Regardless, it’s a poor matchup. San Francisco cedes just 9.6 fantasy points to tight ends per game–third-fewest in the NFL. UPDATE: Allen is questionable.

San Francisco Offense

There is no wiggle room for Brock Purdy and company. The 49ers halted a three-game skid with a 38-13 win against Chicago last Sunday. However, at 6-7, the Niners have no wiggle room. Additionally, the loss of another running back complicates things or Thursday.

Expect Purdy to throw the ball early and often. Los Angeles has surrendered 26 total touchdowns to quarterbacks. But that included six scores to Josh Allen last week. Purdy did throw for 292 and three against these Rams back in Week 3. Expect Purdy to challenge that secondary on Thursday, which should result in QB1 numbers.

Issac Guerendo suffered a sprained foot last week. While the rookie delivered with a two-score showing, fantasy managers who emptied their remaining FAB budget were expecting RB1/2 for the entire fantasy playoffs. UPDATE: Guerendo is questionable but trying to play. If he does, Guerendo approaches RB1 territory and dumps Taylor to an RB4.

Instead, the Niners will turn to their fourth-string RB Patrick Taylor, who logged 20 snaps in Week 14. However, the results weren’t inspiring. Taylor’s eight opportunities resulted in merely 25 yards. Still, a starting running back in a Shanahan-coached offense always has value. View Taylor as an RB3/flex option.

Expect a sprinkling of Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Israel Abinakanda as ancillary backs.

There are also talks of Deebo Samuel finally being utilized more as a runner. That’s something frustrated fantasy managers have clamored for all season. Samuel also deleted a social media post where he vented his own frustrations at his lack of involvement. Hoping this is a ‘squeaky wheel gets the grease’ situation, and knowing the importance of this game for San Francisco, we’re boosting Samuel’s projections.

Jauan Jennings has emerged as the team’s top wide receiver. He had the best game of his career against the Rams, catching 11-of-12 targets for 175 yards and three TDs. The Rams have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to enemy wideouts, so Jennings is a must-start WR2.

The Niners don’t involve their WR3 much. Ricky Pearsall will play plenty of snaps, but won’t command many targets. Those looks will instead go to TE George Kittle. Los Angeles has only allowed four touchdowns to the position in 2024, but Kittle is an elite fantasy option and the most likely pass-catcher to lead the team in receiving.

Prediction & Best Bet

San Francisco has been a very good home team over the past few seasons. Overall, the 49ers have won 19 of their last 25 games at Levi’s Stadium. They’ve also gone 9-3 against the Rams dating back to 2018. Additionally, the Niners have no margin for error and did not have to travel on a short week.

The Rams are 3-3 against the spread on the road and have tended to turn the ball over too often in this series. Additionally, the 49ers will make his season debut to boost San Francisco’s defense.

I have a lean on the under but will be taking the home team to win.

Best Bet: 49ers -2.5

Thanks for reading our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 15.

The 2024 NFL season is underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord!

All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates.