Week 13 NFL Player Props
For the fourth consecutive week, we dropped a 3-3 record with our player props wagers. However, due to an added sprinkle on Ladd McConkey’s receiving yardage line, we managed to profit in Week 12. It wasn’t technically one of the plays last week but since it was mentioned in the Justin Herbert writeup, I’m going to count it. And the plus-odds bet on Mike Evans’ receiving yardage was a nice little victory. Still, we only gained +.45 Units and are now an even +4.0 Units on the season. Despite still being in the green, it’s time for us to catch fire like the first few weeks of the campaign with Week 13 NFL Player Props!
We are due for a big week and it might come during the festive holidays. For Thanksgiving, we will discuss some Turkey Day props, as well as a few over the weekend. In Week 13, instead of providing you with my favorite six or seven props, I will list my top 10 player props.
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 13 NFL Player Props!
Derek Carr OVER 214.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Derek Carr’s passing yards line for Week 13 against the Rams looks attainable based on a few key metrics and trends this season. Not to mention, he helped us triple up a few weeks ago so we’re going back to the well despite the lack of weapons surrounding him.
Consistent passing volume has helped Carr as the Saints are typically playing from behind. Carr has surpassed this line in 8 of his last 10 games. This consistency underscores his role in the Saints offense, which leans heavily on his arm, especially in matchups where they face defensive vulnerabilities in the secondary. Which leads me to my next point.
The Rams have had some serious defensive struggles in 2024. The Rams have allowed over 243 passing yards per game this season, ranking among the league’s bottom-tier pass defenses. Their secondary has struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks, giving Carr an advantageous matchup.
And although Carr doesn’t have the weapons that he once started the season with, the Rams’ defense has shown a tendency to allow massive big-chunk plays, providing Carr with the opportunity to rack up yards efficiently. Not to mention, the game script should favor the veteran signal-caller eclipsing this line. The Rams’ offense can score quickly with Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp, which would force the Saints to keep up. This dynamic increases Carr’s likelihood of exceeding his yardage line as the Saints try to stay competitive.
All of these factors and trends point towards Carr surpassing this line. Don’t forget that he has easily eclipsed this prop line in three consecutive games since returning from a mid-season injury. This bodes well for Carr on Sunday. Smash the Over!
Patrick Mahomes OVER 238.5 Passing Yards (-130)
We haven’t wagered on Mahomes all season and for good reason. He hasn’t been the same explosive passing quarterback he has been in years past. Still, his team is 10-1 and after 11 games of the season, this line has consistently dropped and is two low to pass up on as Kansas City gears up for a Friday afternoon tilt with their division rivals, the Las Vegas Raiders.
Mahomes has thrown for 240+ yards in 8 of 11 games this season, demonstrating his reliability as a passer. And he’s doing this with so many injuries to his star-studded skill players such as Rashee Rice, Isaiah Pacheco, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and more. Still, he’s averaging 266 passing yards per game, comfortably above the prop line.
Additionally, Mahomes has a favorable matchup against a Raiders secondary that he already threw for 268 yards against back in a Week 8 victory for the defending champs. Despite all the injuries to some key skill-position players, Travis Kelce and Noah Gray appear to be the top one-two punch at the tight end position in the NFL and the arrival of veteran DeAndre Hopkins has definitely helped this offense. Despite some inconsistency from the wide receiver corps, Mahomes continues to distribute the ball effectively, targeting Travis Kelce and utilizing backs in the passing game. His efficiency on throws over 20 yards is among the league’s best, ensuring his ability to rack up yards quickly. In 13 games against the Raiders over his career, he has 238+ passing yards 10 times. I’ll take those odds any day of the week.
Additionally, the Raiders have allowed Joe Burrow, Tua, and Bo Nix to smash their respective player props in Vegas’ three previous contests dating back to Week 9. Even Andy Dalton went nuclear with 319 passing yards against the Raiders in Week 3.
Plus, since the Chiefs-Raiders game is the only one being played on Friday, I would consider it a primetime game. And in primetime games last year, Mahomes averaged 276.6 passing yards per game. All the stars are aligning for a fairly easy winning wager. The one thing that would prevent Mahomes from cruising past this line is if the Chiefs get out to a three-score lead early and fast. And despite the Raiders looking like a dumpster fire this season, I don’t anticipate Maxx Crosby allowing the Chiefs to win this one without any pressure whatsoever. This is a safe wager. Take the Over.
Joe Burrow OVER 249.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Although Pittsburgh has one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL, they are much more effective against the run than the pass. They allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards, which means Burrow should be airing it out in this clash of AFC North rivals.
Although the Steelers have one of the top defensive units in the league with All-Pro edge rusher T.J. Watt, it’s not like they haven’t been shredded by some mediocre quarterbacks this season. And they also have a propensity for allowing big-chunk plays to dynamic playmakers. Several subpar quarterbacks have surpassed their passing yard props against Pittsburgh this season including Jameis Winston last week, as well as Bo Nix, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and even Daniel Jones and Aidan O’Connell! If they can do it, I like Burrow’s chances, especially with the majority of his skill-position players finally fully healthy.
With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both active, plus the emergence of Adreis Iosivas, and a blast from the past from Mike Gesiki, this passing attack looks stellar despite Cincinnati’s 4-7 record. Not to mention, Chase Brown has really become a workhorse and has great hands out of the backfield (35 receptions for 207 yards this season).
But the biggest reason I love this prop is simply Burrow’s recent performance surge. He has surpassed this line in each of his three previous outings against the Raiders, Ravens, and Chargers. During that span, he has compiled a whopping 1,035 passing yards (345 per game) as well as a stellar 12:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
If the Bengals lose this game, their season is all but over so expect Burrow to look to light up the Steelers in a pivotal game. I expect Zac Taylor to allow Burrow to let it fly!
Josh Jacobs OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Josh Jacobs has been an absolute workhorse, smashing this yardage line in five straight games with totals of 76, 127, 95, 76, and 106 yards. He’s also hit this mark in eight of his 11 starts this season. The Green Bay offense flows through him, and you can bet they’ll lean on Jacobs to control the clock and keep the ball out of Tua Tagovailoa’s hands. Just look at his performance against an elite San Francisco 49ers defense last week in which he scored three touchdowns, eclipsed the century mark, and earned an 89.7% carry share if you exclude the final two drives when the Packers led by four touchdowns.
Josh Jacobs rushed 26 times for 106 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 12 against the 49ers, recording the most missed tackles forced (15) by any ball carrier this season.
Jacobs has now forced 67 missed tackles this season, tied for 2nd-most in the NFL entering Sunday Night… pic.twitter.com/80tRKFLZAC
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 25, 2024
Perhaps most importantly, Miami’s defense has the third-lowest tackle grade in the league per PFF, and trying to bring down Jacobs at Lambeau in cold weather? Good luck. At home, he’s averaging a solid 90.2 rushing yards this season, making this spot feel tailor-made for another big performance. I am throwing multiple units on this one.
And let’s talk about those ankle-breaking moves! Per Next Gen Stats, Jacobs forced 15 missed tackles last Sunday—the most by any back in a single game this season. Expect Jacobs to run wild on the Dolphins in Week 13.
Jonathan Taylor UNDER 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
I know what you are thinking. The Patriots are one of the worst rushing defenses in the league so JT should cook! Not so fast, my friends. Since Taylor returned from his mid-season injury, the veteran back out of Wisconsin has only hit this line at a 40% rate. And both of those games came with Joe Flacco under center, not Anthony Richardson.
Since A-Rich returned to the fold, JT has looked like a shell of his former self. In a Week 12 victory in which the Colts knocked off the Jets, the game script was in his favor and he still managed to produce just 57 rushing yards on 24 attempts. Then last week in Indy’s loss to the Lions, the Colts were never able to get the running game going and Taylor finished with a measly 35 rushing yards on 11 attempts.
Game script could be much more favorable this week than it was last week but as we saw against the Jets, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Taylor will be able to find holes in the offensive line. We did see how the Pats were able to contain Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert last week despite a favorable game script for the Phins and considering the Colts are more focused on developing their second-year quarterback, I think we could see more of a passing approach than a running one in Week 13 from the Colts. And if they do run, we all know how Richardson can vulture many carries as evidenced by Taylor’s 11 touches last week. Take the Under!
A.J. Brown OVER 89.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Two of the top teams in the NFL face off in Week 13 and it’s sure to be a great game. Both teams rely heavily on superstar running backs (Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry) and each has a mobile quarterback with MVP aspirations (Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson). However, if the Eagles want to win one of their toughest tests yet, they can’t simply rely on Saquon to break the game open. A.J. Brown is going to have to put up big numbers.
Baltimore’s defense has become a pass-funnel unit, allowing the most receptions (305) and receiving yards (3,569) in the NFL this season. Opposing WR1s have consistently feasted on this secondary, surpassing their receiving yardage props in five straight games. Notable performances include:
Ja’Marr Chase has produced 455 yards and 5 touchdowns in two games against Baltimore this year. Chase’s monster outings against the Ravens highlight the difficulty they have against physical, explosive receivers who can dominate in one-on-one matchups. Brown, with a comparable skill set, is poised to replicate that success. He thrives on deep balls and contested catches, which align well with weaknesses in Baltimore’s secondary.
And if DeVonta Smith remains sidelined, Brown will command an even larger share of Jalen Hurts’ targets. This increased volume will give him more opportunities to pile up yardage, especially in a potentially high-scoring game where the Eagles might need to air it out to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
If the Eagles fall behind, the negative game script will likely lead to more passing attempts from Hurts, funneling targets to Brown. His ability to produce after the catch and win on deep routes makes him a reliable option to rack up yards quickly.
AJ Brown has been fairly consistent this season and has a history of stepping up in critical matchups. He has surpassed 84 yards in 75% of his outings and has put up 90+ yards in 50% of his contests this season. The combination of volume, talent, and a favorable matchup against a struggling Ravens secondary sets the stage for another big performance.
Jameson Williams OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Bears’ secondary struggles outside of CB1 Jaylon Johnson. With Johnson set to shadow Amon-Ra St. Brown, this could be prime time for Jameson Williams to shine. Williams has been quietly consistent, smashing this yardage total in three straight games and seven of nine on the season.
Here’s where it gets spicy: Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is probably still drooling over Jordan Addison’s big game against this same secondary last week. He’s scheming up plays for Williams while dreaming of turkey legs and pumpkin pie. Expect him to dial up multiple juicy opportunities for Williams to torch the Bears’ secondary like it’s the first course of his Thanksgiving feast. Get ready for Jameson to bring the fireworks!
Tyler Lockett UNDER 37.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Although Lockett began the season with plenty of looks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has officially surpassed him on the depth chart and the veteran wideout has been somewhat phased out of Seattle’s game plan in recent weeks. In Lockett’s last four outings, he’s only hit this line once.
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Week 8: 9 Receiving Yards vs. BUF
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Week 9: 63 Receiving Yards vs. LAR (Metcalf Inactive)
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Week 10: BYE WEEK
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Week 11: 19 Receiving Yards @ SF
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Week 12: 20 Receiving Yards vs. ARI
Although the Jets allowed 237 receiving yards to wideouts against the Colts in their Week 12 loss, New York has allowed the third-fewest yards to opposing wideouts this year. If a receiver is going to beat them, it’s going to be JSN or Metcalf. But I expect the Seahawks to employ a ground-and-pound approach with Kenneth Walker Jr. Take the Under.
Theo Johnson OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
After a slow start to the season, New York’s rookie tight end is beginning to trend in the right direction even if the Giants still need an answer at the quarterback position. Johnson appears poised to surpass 25 receiving yards in Week 13 because he’s been consistently involved in the offense since Week 5. Since that span, the rookie has surpassed this line in six of seven outings.
The Cowboys don’t exactly have a defense that is scary to play against and considering the Giants don’t have anything left to play for, you could see why they would like to get the rookie more involved to see if he is the long-term solution at the tight end position. And it doesn’t hurt that he’s been trending up in recent weeks, even in his first game with Tommy Devito where he corralled three receptions on six targets for 39 scoreless yards. Dallas has allowed four of the last six tight ends to eclipse their respective receiving yard prop lines, with Zach Ertz doing it in Week 12 and Dalton Schultz doing it in Week 11.
Lastly, you can’t forget about game script and the Giants will likely need to rely on the passing game in the second half if they hope to notch their third victory of the season. The nature of the game script is likely to necessitate passing, giving Johnson more opportunities to be involved. His average depth of target and yards per reception further increase the likelihood of him clearing this line on just a few catches.
Travis Kelce OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
After a relatively slow start to the season, the future Hall of Famer has eclipsed this line in six of his last eight games. He’s trending in the right direction and has a big history of success against the Raiders. In 21 games against this franchise, Kelce is averaging 5.8 receptions on 7.7 targets for 72.1 yards per game and 0.6 touchdowns per outing. Back in Week 8 when the Chiefs dispatched the Raiders, 27-20, Kelce had one of his best games of the 2024 campaign, accumulating 10 receptions on 12 targets for 90 receiving yards and one trip to the end zone.
Kelce made us money last week so we’re doubling down and going right back to him against a Raiders secondary that allowed two straight tight ends to produce 100+ yards (Mike Gesiki and Jonnu Smith) before facing a Denver Broncos squad that doesn’t utilize their tight ends in Week 12.
Similarly to the Mahomes prop, the only way I envision Kelce failing to hit this line is if the Chiefs completely blow out the Raiders and Kelce is phased out of the game plan in the second half. Still, he has the talent to produce 53 yards in just the first half and despite the Raiders’ struggles, division games are usually closer so I’m not anticipating a blowout.
